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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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The major difference between the GFS and the ICON is the timing.  At 12z Sunday the GFS has the low over Albany, while the ICON has it in KY.  The Ukie today has it in NW GA. We need to see the GFS start slowing things up.  Also the Euro, as it was midway between the GFS and the IKON at the WV PA border. 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gificon_z500_mslp_us_39.pnggfs_z500_mslp_us_20.png

 

 

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I know we all want what the ukmet shows, and that is a non phase with the tpv lobe that swings around. Here are the last 3 runs of the euro, including the 18z run. Can see each run of the euro continues to delay the northern stream interaction and almost tries to make it just a separate southern stream wave by itself.  Can also see in response to the pac nw low the ridge in the west is losing amplitude and rolling over pushing east.  Just thought I  would share

5c3e76a936ff3.gif

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My police friends tell me if you are a no gun household then bear mace is a good option. 

 Hopefully nobody gets into an icing situation with prolonged outages from this mess.  

The machete came in handy chopping down overgrown plants during our monsoon summer. I haven’t used it on a human yet. 

18z euro posts sound nice, it’s what we’ve been waiting for. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z EPS coming in a bit colder. 

It looks like a small step in the right direction between the 18Z Op and ENS mean. Kind of hard to tell bc the panel intervals are 12 hours so can't really compare the exact time frame between those two runs. But it does look the mean SLP track is a bit further east.

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