Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think you're right. We'll see how the upper levels shake out - if we get the earlier phase or not. Obviously with the cold to the north there's quite a risk for some big time icing. 

I am prepping Thursday if this holds. All too familiar from 1994 down in SRI. Right out of the textbook. Just need to see where this sets up. Right now lol I go from from 56 to 20 in a friggin flash. Hopefully it goes to a sleet storm 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, CT Rain said:

Valley may be more at risk. ECMWF has the classic valley wedge look. Not bad for a global model 5 days out!

True.  I usually default to like 950mb being the coldest as often the wedges seem to have a slight warm up in the very lowest levels with the hills locked in coldest.  But with such a cold low level air mass it could be right at the SFC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah for sure...with the location of the high (more N and NW, and not NE)...I think you'd prob have a hard time getting above freezing anywhere too far inland from HVN....I'd be surprised if we don't see some mesolows tracking to our south/southeast in the current model look of a fairly amped system.

Yup. That's the way these things tend to go... unless of course we phase too early and then all bets are off. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

I thought high rates would cause too much latent heat release and minimize accretion? Looks like heavy rates on the Euro anyway.

You have a fresh arctic dewpoint feed that will offset latent heat in this case....that's what happened in ORH in Dec 2008 despite extreme heavy rates at marginal 30-31F temps. The dewpoint feed offset it and kept accretion from slowing down too much.

 

The heavy rates themselves will cause a lot of runoff, so you'll lose some QPF to that, but you would still get exceptional icing with that setup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Funny thing is that as this turns into a bust I am not getting as triggered as I could have been.  No meltdown...No death by snowblower. Once a fighter has been beaten down repetitively he gets used to it.  Sure, there's a bit of shock but after a quick adjustment the beatings feel natural.  Eventually he learns to stay down and take the KO, which will most likely happen sooner than later.  

How can it turn into a bust 5 days out? A bust would be if the day before it was a snowstorm then this happened 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty much. I saw how much Stowe has seen this year and it’s absolutely insanity relative to the rest of NE.

Seems like it’s snowing nightly there 

When one sees that they think that all of NNE has had a great winter so far, Which is not the case for some of the areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You have a fresh arctic dewpoint feed that will offset latent heat in this case....that's what happened in ORH in Dec 2008 despite extreme heavy rates at marginal 30-31F temps. The dewpoint feed offset it and kept accretion from slowing down too much.

 

The heavy rates themselves will cause a lot of runoff, so you'll lose some QPF to that, but you would still get exceptional icing with that setup.

Okay, that makes sense. I remember seeing the icing on the trees in December '08 when I went up to the Worcester area for a basketball tournament. I couldn't believe how bad it was. I really hope you're right that thisends up being more a snow/sleet scenario. Would you guess that even though the Euro is picking up on the valley CAD, it's underdone? As in sfc temps. will probably be lower than it's showing?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Kind of reminds me of a system later in January 1994.  The day started subzero.  Spoke to near 50 with several inches of snow on the back end.

You're thinking of Jan 17-18, 1994....this one will have a much better high than that event. I got stuck on rt 2 on a bus on the way back from a school ski trip to Mt Snow...went from dumping snow to epic icing along Rt 2 and a bumper to bumper traffic jam at 6-7pm at night. We didn't get back to ORH until 10pm.

 

But that one had a frigid but retreatign arctic high going away from us over Nova Scotia...low tracked almost over our heads in ORH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Okay, that makes sense. I remember seeing the icing on the trees in December '08 when I went up to the Worcester area for a basketball tournament. I couldn't believe how bad it was. I really hope you're right that thisends up being more a snow/sleet scenario. Would you guess that even though the Euro is picking up on the valley CAD, it's underdone? As in sfc temps. will probably be lower than it's showing?

Yeah I'd def cut the modeled temps at the surface if we were forecasting a day or two out with this look...right now, it doesn't matter too much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
klw

klw

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kind of reminds me of a system later in January 1994.  The day started subzero.  Spoke to near 50 with several inches of snow on the back end.

January 28, 1994 perhaps.  Burlington went from -28 on the 27th to 47 on the 28 and back to a high of 9 on the 30th.

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv

1994-01-15 7 -14 -3.5 -21.8 68 0 T T 15
1994-01-16 -5 -18 -11.5 -29.7 76 0 T T 14
1994-01-17 28 -5 11.5 -6.7 53 0 0.29 5.6 14
1994-01-18 24 -4 10.0 -8.2 55 0 0.05 0.6 19
1994-01-19 3 -17 -7.0 -25.2 72 0 0.00 0.0 16
1994-01-20 7 -6 0.5 -17.7 64 0 T T 16
1994-01-21 13 -1 6.0 -12.2 59 0 T T 15
1994-01-22 17 -2 7.5 -10.7 57 0 0.02 1.0 15
1994-01-23 20 -13 3.5 -14.7 61 0 0.10 2.5 16
1994-01-24 31 17 24.0 5.7 41 0 0.02 0.5 16
1994-01-25 17 0 8.5 -9.8 56 0 T T 15
1994-01-26 0 -25 -12.5 -30.9 77 0 0.00 0.0 13
1994-01-27 15 -29 -7.0 -25.5 72 0 T 0.1 13
1994-01-28 47 14 30.5 12.0 34 0 0.31 0.6 14
1994-01-29 44 9 26.5 7.9 38 0 0.01 0.1 12
1994-01-30 9 -8 0.5 -18.2 64 0 T 0.1 11
1994-01-31 10 -13 -1.5 -20.3 66 0 0.00 0.0 11

I remember watching the 6 pm news with a temp of -27 at the time calling for rain the next day and thinking "well that can't be right."  I was wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I think you're right. We'll see how the upper levels shake out - if we get the earlier phase or not. Obviously with the cold to the north there's quite a risk for some big time icing. 

I just want to know if I need to buy a generator for this....moved up here late 2014 and haven't needed one yet. Neighbors tell me my are doesnt do well with ice...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted

From GYX: 

On Sunday, all deterministic and ensemble models within the 12Z
model suite begin to shift the storm northeastward towards
southern New England. Models have trended towards a warmer
solution aloft, allowing for the snow to change to sleet and
possibly freezing rain over southern areas during the day.
Temperatures at the surface should remain below freezing over
southern areas which could potentially allow for a relatively
thick layer of ice.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...