January 2019 Discussion II

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I dislike relying on CAD to put off transitions between phases.  It always sounds well and good but those cold banks get eroded pretty quickly in my hood.   Topography I guess

 

You aren't sniffing freezing on that setup as currently modeled....this isn't in-situ CAD. This is legit. The lowest 3000-4000 feet is going to be like moving thick molasses and there's going to be a northwest ageostrophic component most likely with the arctic high northwest of us with an arm extending due north of us.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Despite these runs... this is probably 5" of snow ... 1.5" of sleet, 1/3" of glaze... flipping back to wind whipped light snow and flurries with the sound of crumbling paper in the trees during gusts.  Or maybe double those ..whatever, but if anything that's the warmest this gets NW of Boston.  

That's my early call... 

 

How much tree and powerline damage/down do you foresee?

[wxeyeNH]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Take the over on that.

During the coldest day of last years Jan cold wave my max was .2F  ( I bet if I had the new station it would have been under zero).  I think I remember you once saying that as we get closer an event the big bias in extreme temps become less.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You aren't sniffing freezing on that setup as currently modeled....this isn't in-situ CAD. This is legit. The lowest 3000-4000 feet is going to be like moving thick molasses and there's going to be a northwest ageostrophic component most likely with the arctic high northwest of us with an arm extending due north of us.

What an appropriate analogy, on this, the hundredth anniversary of the most interesting disaster ever.

[CarverWX]

So from what I gather at this point SE MA will see a quick shot of light snow then over to rain?

[Whineminster]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much tree and powerline damage/down do you foresee?

I can't see a 1/3" of ice doing much. 

We always think there's going to be a ton of ZR leading up to these events....and then it's like nothing. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much tree and powerline damage/down do you foresee?

Are we looking for a slightly stronger low to approach SNE and have a meso scoot out near PYM for maximum ice 

[DomNH]

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I can't see a 1/3" of ice doing much. 

We always think there's going to be a ton of ZR leading up to these events....and then it's like nothing. 

I agree. I'm thinking there will be enough SN/IP front end thump to keep things under ice storm warning criteria for most but at 5 days out you can't toss anything. It's really hard to get devastating ice >0.5'' accretion. Not going to happen if a bunch of the QPF is snow and sleet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much tree and powerline damage/down do you foresee?

Hmm.. interesting question...   I was buckin' for wide-spread grid failure 1 hour before Patriots go time ... Therefore, this ahole that lives in Tolland Ct gets to wallow in the crapulence of seeing both a dystopian ice fall and knowing that the entire Patriot fan base of SNE is f'ed to watch the AFC title game.  

J/k...  I don't know Kevin.  What, 1/2" ?  I think that's what NWS calls "warning ice"  

I could almost envision this thing busting the present runs so far S that the worst icing is but a 10th of the inch somewhere down 10 miles above the south coast ...and everyone above sleets down to 1/2 mile visibility on top of a 6" of front side thump.  I tend to agree with Will that a surface solution west of Worcester Mass is highly unlikely given initial conditions to then overcome... I also think that with the open-wave nature of the total deep layer, that we may see a correction south with elevated warm layers too... We'll see on that.. .

That's one school of thinking... If something exotic happens though with those mid levels... we could have more icing but ...  I tend at this time to think that the actual transition between S-IP-ZR-R is narrower on the right side of those ptypes.  

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is a little tamed down from 06z....even slighlty more CADish than 00z.

I didn't look at 6z but compared to 00z the 12z seemed a little more amped in the mean.  But its splitting hairs.  It's snow probs ticked slightly NW.  It's certainly not backing down yet but save that for 72 hours out when all data is sampled.

Here are individuals when the low is into New England area: 

[CoastalWx]

It’s 5 days out and a lock for hubby to be below 32. Just a matter of what falls for him. Maybe trees?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

You can see that pv @ 850 pushing down into Maine from previous runs.

Yea. Trend isn't done...AWT.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I didn't look at 6z but compared to 00z the 12z seemed a little more amped in the mean.  But its splitting hairs.  It's snow probs ticked slightly NW.  It's certainly not backing down yet but save that for 72 hours out when all data is sampled.

Here are individuals when the low is into New England area: 

Probably because it got rid of the east outliers I would imagine. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s 5 days out and a lock for hubby to be below 32. Just a matter of what falls for him. Maybe trees?

I'm locked below 32 imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I didn't look at 6z but compared to 00z the 12z seemed a little more amped in the mean.  But its splitting hairs.  It's snow probs ticked slightly NW.  It's certainly not backing down yet but save that for 72 hours out when all data is sampled.

Here are individuals when the low is into New England area: 

EPS has always been way to go...several inches for me, then ice.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm.. interesting question...   I was buckin' for wide-spread grid failure 1 hour before Patriots go time ... Therefore, this ahole that lives in Tolland Ct gets to wallow in the crapulence of seeing both a dystopian ice fall and knowing that the entire Patriot fan base of SNE is f'ed to watch the AFC title game.  

J/k...  I don't know Kevin.  What, 1/2" ?  I think that's what NWS calls "warning ice"  

I could almost envision this thing busting the present runs so far S that the worst icing is but a 10th of the inch somewhere down 10 miles above the south coast ...and everyone above sleets down to 1/2 mile visibility on top of a 6" of front side thump.  I tend to agree with Will that a surface solution west of Worcester Mass is highly unlikely given initial conditions to then overcome... I also think that with the open-wave nature of the total deep layer, that we may see a correction south with elevated warm layers too... We'll see on that.. .

That's one school of thinking... If something exotic happens though with those mid levels... we could have more icing but ...  I tend at this time to think that the actual transition between S-IP-ZR-R is narrower on the right side of those ptypes.  

Absolutely agreed. Major ice will be thin...lots of snow/sleet.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely agreed. Major ice will be thin...lots of snow/sleet.

I just think N CT is mainly a zr storm after several inches of sleet . That’s my read for now anyway with mainly snow 90 north with some sleet 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Despite these runs... this is probably 5" of snow ... 1.5" of sleet, 1/3" of glaze... flipping back to wind whipped light snow and flurries with the sound of crumbling paper in the trees during gusts.  Or maybe double those ..whatever, but if anything that's the warmest this gets NW of Boston.  

That's my early call... 

 

Said the same thing. Yea.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just think N CT is mainly a zr storm after several inches of sleet . That’s my read for now anyway with mainly snow 90 north with some sleet 

I think the fact that it begins as snow/sleet really mitigates that threat...even in that narrow zone.

We shall see.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s 5 days out and a lock for hubby to be below 32. Just a matter of what falls for him. Maybe trees?

 I just always expect to lose power and I am happy when I don't.   Truth be told though,  I would guess he and Westminster weenie will be more susceptible to power loss if a big icing event occurs due to the wind exposure factor.  

 The wind only blows in Greenfield during thunderstorms.

 

 

 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably because it got rid of the east outliers I would imagine. 

When does this actually get well sampled? I know the northern stream and PV stuff in Canada probably won't get well sampled until it's happening but I'm thinking like 72 hours out would be the time the models are more comfortable with this.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

When does this actually get well sampled? I know the northern stream and PV stuff in Canada probably won't get well sampled until it's happening but I'm thinking like 72 hours out would be the time the models are more comfortable with this.

 I’m on the road and haven’t looked at that in detail, but my guess is your timeline seems pretty close. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

 I’m on the road and haven’t looked at that in detail, but my guess is your timeline seems pretty close. 

The hype is already driving me mad in Ski Country.  The various associations like Ski Vermont, NH Tourism, etc and the individual ski resorts are already starting to talk about "foot and a half, two feet!" type stuff.  It's 5 days out.  There are big differences in Friday's light event, and if the models can't figure that out how the hell will they figure out Sunday?

I know its a holiday weekend for the ski areas but man this hype is going to get unreal.  I hate that part of me wishes something happens so those who take to social media early and PR departments learn not to promise people stuff 5 days out.

[HoarfrostHubb]

15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I just always expect to lose power and I am happy when I don't.   Truth be told though,  I would guess he and Westminster weenie will be more susceptible to power loss if a big icing event occurs due to the wind exposure factor.  

 The wind only blows in Greenfield during thunderstorms.

 

 

 

My house itself doesn't get much wind, but other parts of the area do.   I am not expecting much more than a glaze at d4.5                Sleet, yes

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The hype is already driving me mad in Ski Country.  The various associations like Ski Vermont, NH Tourism, etc and the individual ski resorts are already starting to talk about "foot and a half, two feet!" type stuff.  It's 5 days out.  There are big differences in Friday's light event, and if the models can't figure that out how the hell will they figure out Sunday?

I know its a holiday weekend for the ski areas but man this hype is going to get unreal.  I hate that part of me wishes something happens so those who take to social media early and PR departments learn not to promise people stuff 5 days out.

Wintry Mix...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The hype is already driving me mad in Ski Country.  The various associations like Ski Vermont, NH Tourism, etc and the individual ski resorts are already starting to talk about "foot and a half, two feet!" type stuff.  It's 5 days out.  There are big differences in Friday's light event, and if the models can't figure that out how the hell will they figure out Sunday?

I know its a holiday weekend for the ski areas but man this hype is going to get unreal.  I hate that part of me wishes something happens so those who take to social media early and PR departments learn not to promise people stuff 5 days out.

Let them kno your safely in the bullseye and thankfully not north of  Quebec City or MVY

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The hype is already driving me mad in Ski Country.  The various associations like Ski Vermont, NH Tourism, etc and the individual ski resorts are already starting to talk about "foot and a half, two feet!" type stuff.  It's 5 days out.  There are big differences in Friday's light event, and if the models can't figure that out how the hell will they figure out Sunday?

I know its a holiday weekend for the ski areas but man this hype is going to get unreal.  I hate that part of me wishes something happens so those who take to social media early and PR departments learn not to promise people stuff 5 days out.

How's the upslope look after?

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I didn't look at 6z but compared to 00z the 12z seemed a little more amped in the mean.  But its splitting hairs.  It's snow probs ticked slightly NW.  It's certainly not backing down yet but save that for 72 hours out when all data is sampled.

Here are individuals when the low is into New England area: 

 

 

Yeah I said the mean was SE of 06z but it was more CAdish than 00z...but the mean was still slightly west of 00z. But CAD shows up better now than 00z. This is goinbg to be the trend assuming no huge upper air changes...which is a caveat. But expect the CAD to trend stronger in this setup

 

The left side is 12z EPS and the right side is 00z...you can clearly see the better CAD sig on the left side despite a mean primary low a touch west.

 

 

[powderfreak]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

How's the upslope look after?

Not that type of system. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Let them kno your safely in the bullseye and thankfully not north of  Quebec City or MVY

True, everyone knows what a Day 5 bullseye looks like when dealing with energy and PV up in the data rich area of northern Canada.

You want to disappoint people?  Tell them they are getting 16-24" 5 days in advance.  It often works out well in the end as those types of SWFE are a dime a dozen, lol.