ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'd be more interested in what the Euro says when we are 3 days out or less. It has been fallible in the 5 day range past year or two. Most of these solutions are being taken way too seriously right now. The storm definitely looks like a legit threat, but I get the sense from the reactions that people are treating these runs as if we're 72 hours out....when we're 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lmao. Ukie having some Laphroaig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GGEM rains to Maine lol. UKMET is partly sunny here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The uncle got into Jerry's crown stash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It is incredible how the majority of you find a way argue in favor of a snowier solution at all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It is still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It is still 5 days out. Cutter or whiff still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I have to agree this isn’t plowing through CNE. The cold at the same time is pressing south. Now of course that may not help those wanting deep snow, but it has consequences for who gets ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It is still 5 days out. One could argue 4.5 as most places begin to see precip between 7-10pm sat nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I have to agree this isn’t plowing through CNE. The cold at the same time is pressing south. Now of course that may not help those wanting deep snow, but it has consequences for who gets ice. Gimme so much Ice that the dump called trashua has a purge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: One could argue 4.5 as most places begin to see precip between 7-10pm sat nite Still an eternity for computer models also trying to deal with a pattern change Hopefully the chaos settles down a bit tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The rest of January looks like a wash based on medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Anyone have the soundings for ukmet looks to be a cold snowstorm for us in the coastal plain with that track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: The rest of January looks like a wash based on medium range. Drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: It is incredible how the majority of you find a way argue in favor of a snowier solution at all times. new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Greg said: The rest of January looks like a wash based on medium range. What does the medium range have to do with two weeks out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GEFS does not look bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What does the medium range have to do with two weeks out? I'll go with nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: GEFS does not look bad That would work for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Believe me, no one here is more frustrated than I am, but you can't let that cloud your perception of the future. Obviously, the sensible result as it pertains to snowfall has been more unsavory than we all had anticipated, but that has very little predictive value for the future. The pattern still looks about as good as it can moving forward, and should it not work out, I'll still call for the same thing heading into a season with an identical hemispheric canvass in the future. All you can do is interpret the pattern and play the odds- I think that there is plenty of fun to be had, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Believe me, no one here is more frustrated than I am, but you can't let that cloud your perception of the future. Obviously, the sensible result as it pertains to snowfall has been more unsavory than we all had anticipated, but that has very little predictive value for the future. The pattern still looks about as good as it can moving forward, and should it not work out, I'll still call for the same thing heading into a season with an identical hemispheric canvass in the future. All you can do is interpret the pattern and play the odds- I think that there is plenty of fun to be had, though. You have had very good poise Ray thru this all . That makes a good forecaster as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: That would work for many. Odd placement in the scatter for the actual member pressure centers, though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GEFS individuals and snowfall. Snowfall is still robust on front end even in the warm solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 If I had to make a forecast for my BY right now, it would be for 5-10" of snow/sleet, followed by a few hours of sleet/freezing rain. Done. I think the ice impact will be limited by antecedent snow/sleet mantle that will be deposited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ukie looks great, pretty much all snow down here, 8-12 inches...a compromise 50/50 would work well for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Uncle a ft+ for a lot of southern NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: It is incredible how the majority of you find a way argue in favor of a snowier solution at all times. Happens all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: GEFS individuals and snowfall. Snowfall is still robust on front end even in the warm solutions. E6/E20 doing its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I had to make a forecast for my BY right now, it would be for 5-10" of snow/sleet, followed by a few hours of sleet/freezing rain. Done. I think the ice impact will be limited by antecedent snow/sleet mantle that will be deposited. I find this very reasonable. Dense stuff with a lot of pellets and liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Are all the players being sampled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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