January 2019 Discussion II

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes,  could be one of the exceptions, especially since favored sports are over the mts.

I'll def. sell the widespread 16-20", though....unless H7 closes.

My concern is if H7 closes , its obviously more amped and amped is H7 is tracking thru CNE imo 

[CT Rain]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Trend is not your friend right now.

GFS solution is pretty close to the best clustering of EPS surface lows (over Albany). 

[Modfan]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The issue with this not dropping a foot is Mid levels going above 0

this is a VERY prolific QPF producing over-running event . 

i would have no problem going 12-16” where this stays all snow w potential 20” lolli’s

it’s at least 18 hours duration this isn’t a 6-7 hour 1.5 inch QPF thump where we are fooled by euro snow maps 

WPC has 1.5 QPF well into CNE , someone is getting over a foot

it likely won’t be In mass due to sleet or some other mixing , not QPF or duration 

This is a concern especially if the surface remains cold; is the icing threat a real concern? To early to tell.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

993 low over Albany.  Yikes.

Ah fack.

Long way to go too.  Not a good trend. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll sell that sfc track though...MLs will def warm on that, but that is not going into ALB. The vort gets abused as it goes east, no way the sfc reflection penetrates that arctic dome.

This appears to be trending toward a significant icing event for interior SNE and S NH imo. Caveat being ...5 days out lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Is the weakening of the Friday system (not that it was ever really robust) having a detrimental effect on the bigger system?

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes,  could be one of the exceptions, especially since favored sports are over the mts.

I'll def. sell the widespread 16-20", though....unless H7 closes.

God no.  I would never throw out those amounts.  10-15" is possible though in this setup.

[dryslot]

That cold is not getting shoved past quebec with a 996mb low.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This appears to be trending toward a significant icing event for interior SNE and S NH imo. Caveat being ...5 days out lol

Icing danger is def increasing over interior.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's back to a more aggressive N-stream involvement ... I would still proceed with caution on that working out too well.. The flow is really quite fast/compressed and that western end of the SPV "scooping" in that curved isohypsic structure like that is less than very frequently observed in velocity saturated flows.  It stresses physical believability -

[powderfreak]

12z GFS sneaks some brief IP all the way up here before kicking east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Trend is not your friend right now.

That run is dumb.

Worse case if an ice storm.

[Chrisrotary12]

Gives me confidence in this "graphic" and discussion i included with my blog post this morning.

• Where it stays all snow, upwards of 12″ is possible;
• The areas in red:
  • Potential for upwards of 6″ of snow;
  • Followed by a firm crust of sleet;
  • On top of which significant icing, >0.25″, is possible.
• The area in green:
  • Potential for plowable snowfall;
  • Followed by a change to sleet & ice;
  • Transitioning to rain for a time.
• The area in purple: a few inches of snow transitions to rain.
• All areas likely end as a bit of snow. A couple additional inches are possible.

 

[Spanks45]

It has found every way not to snow since mid November so why not this weekend. I'm sure Thursday night will find a way as well, there is still time for that to go down hill...

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'll sell that sfc track though...MLs will def warm on that, but that is not going into ALB. The vort gets abused as it goes east, no way the sfc reflection penetrates that arctic dome.

The tilt on this system will be crazy.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Icing danger is def increasing over interior.

Yup.. been on that wagon 2 days. Frigid surface and no warming , torch aloft 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My concern is if H7 closes , its obviously more amped and amped is H7 is tracking thru CNE imo 

Its not tracking through central NE.

Not happening.

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This appears to be trending toward a significant icing event for the deep interior SNE and S NH imo. Caveat being ...5 days out lol

fyp

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Icing danger is def increasing over interior.

I'm kinda kicking myself...  I extrapolated over that a few days ago ...but in the interim, advised dropping that from threat assessing - which appears to be neolithically incompetent on my part seeing as ever since than there's been this like super-natural forcing changing the model to make sure I look like a giant asshole for backing away from those original insights...

Kidding of course but jesus -

[Bostonseminole]

I would shift that SE about 75 miles, I think we trend that way as we get closer and the models get a better handle on the cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's back to a more aggressive N-stream involvement ... I would still proceed with caution on that working out too well.. The flow is really quite fast/compressed and that western end of the SPV "scooping" in that curved isohypsic structure like that is less than very frequently observed in velocity saturated flows.  It stresses physical believability -

Uber phased idea is BS imo.

We'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not tracking through central NE.

Not happening.

I could def see the midlevels tracking through CNE....but I don't think the surface will. The sfc in reality will prob run into a brick wall in PA or something and then you'll see a protrusion forming to the south and east of SNE and it rtracks over CC or SE MA or something like that.

[Greg]

The GFS pretty much just bypassed the very cold air to the north and pretty much said to the cold "If I can't go around you, I'll go behind you." Translation "A track over Albany".

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not tracking through central NE.

Not happening.

I’m not taking about the surface low , I’m talking a scenario where mid levels close 

[correnjim1]

and the beat goes on ugh

[HoarfrostHubb]

Coldest day of the season on Monday?  Then colder still on Tuesday?

Hopefully the ice threat doesn't materialize or there will be major issues with the cold

[Greg]

Increadible! Every SW since Mid November has found a way to not snow in South Central and SNE so far. The potential making of a ratter is ensuing. Like I said in an earlier post way back. "You can't depend on a winter of CAD"  The setup overall must change or this is pretty much what we're looking at with most systems.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ok...so the coders are confused.  Just looking at a piece of modelling and how their algorithm on TT handles it.  

They are not confused either ... 

The "coders" are not coding for bullshit details that are going to be wrong in the first place - ...leaving those out is vastly more likely the pragmatic recourse... People coming along and using them to give a dopamine rush for how awesomely cryo-dystopic the run looks based on colors, ... then bargaining in vitriol like we don't know they really want it to happen ... is tantamount to a form of shall we say ... less than entirely rational.  Group psychosis is more like it

[dryslot]

That 12z GGEM was no help either, A couple tiics NW of the 0z Run.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

I’m not taking about the surface low , I’m talking a scenario where mid levels close 

I think you'll be hard-pressed to see the MLs close off with this given the setup.  This is basic an open wave storm developing along the arctic boundary.  It's not a re-developer.