STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Even the ICON is cold at the surface, Can't see the MLs though. Temps barely exceed 30F at the peak and that is only in SE MA and CC. Is one key to not torching the surface , not having the two shortwaves phase in the Midwest , not certain if that influences or is a product of a more elongated polar vortex to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I feel like you worked so hard over the years to get everyone to toss the GFS and other models. You used to beg Ryan to go straight Euro/EPS and toss the others as far as the eye could see. Don't take away all that hard work now. Kevin's 5:30 a.m. temper tantrum on text message was great lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Chances of straight rain seem very small in this and only for a small geographic area. The trick will be where the mix/snow line sets up. The low levels will be frigid. I’ve seen circles of Mets (not here) calling for 50 and rain after start as snow based on EURO/ Eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The ICON definitely has trended significantly wetter up north the past few runs so that helps. Now over 1" QPF into Quebec. I think it was Ray who said it, but I'd sell the widespread 12"+ amounts as it just seems to be moving so fast. It's an open wave that somehow is convincing us of 12-20" of snow in like 12-18 hours. I feel like we've seen this before with juicy open waves, can still put down good snows but more like 8-12" instead of 12-20". But who knows, the models are just so jacked up with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 26th might just repeat all this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve seen circles of Mets (not here) calling for 50 and rain after start as snow based on EURO/ Eps Ahh gotcha. Yeah it won't be 50F where you are at all. Maybe sniff 32F even in a warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The ICON definitely has trended significantly wetter up north the past few runs so that helps. Now over 1" QPF into Quebec. I think it was Ray who said it, but I'd sell the widespread 12"+ amounts as it just seems to be moving so fast. It's an open wave that somehow is convincing us of 12-20" of snow in like 12-18 hours. I feel like we've seen this before with juicy open waves, can still put down good snows but more like 8-12" instead of 12-20". But who knows, the models are just so jacked up with QPF. Two tell-tale signs of fraudulent (WIDESPREAD) foot+: 1) Mid level low centers are NOT closed. 2) Mid level low centers, H85-7, pass over or to your nw. #sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The interesting thing with that ICON snowfall printout is that if you take the 35.3" amount in the Southern Rhode Island area and move the decimal point to the left, you get 3.53". This would translate to a more realistic 4" of snow and heavy sleet. So maybe actually manipulating the amounts gives you a more realistic reprsentation of what this SWFE will do. Just saying. It can't be totally "out to lunch" with a solution like that just not the snowfall amounts it showing currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, snowgeek said: We even tainted in Albany VD2007. Ended up with 18" with 40" 30 miles to our west. Forecasts were fore 2-3' in Albany. Just missed the biggest storm of my life! Odd storm. No taint at my place (temps were near 10 most of the storm) and 15.5" was the biggest snowfall in 2 years, but it was 8:1 sugar while 6 miles west the Farmington co-op reported 23". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The issue with this not dropping a foot is Mid levels going above 0 this is a VERY prolific QPF producing over-running event . i would have no problem going 12-16” where this stays all snow w potential 20” lolli’s it’s at least 18 hours duration this isn’t a 6-7 hour 1.5 inch QPF thump where we are fooled by euro snow maps WPC has 1.5 QPF well into CNE , someone is getting over a foot it likely won’t be In mass due to sleet or some other mixing , not QPF or duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lol at the TT ICON clown map putting 32" over Ray That model is confused, as is the algorithm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Enough of the icon. Better tilt of the PV on the gfs thru 102 but still looks amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Two tell-tale signs of fraudulent (WIDESPREAD) foot+: 1) Mid level low centers are NOT closed. 2) Mid level low centers, H85-7, pass over or to your nw. #sell Widespread, no, but when you have a moisture laden system slamming into an arctic air mass such as this, we have seen some prolific snow events transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z GFS looks like its going to have more phasing this run over the mid west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Enough of the icon. Better tilt of the PV on the gfs thru 102. Southern stream is dragging a little...that's prob a good thing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 What a gorgeous high placement , man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wow, makes a B-line left turn...that warm sectors all of SNE after initially being colder on the very front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gfs defintely NW if previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Why are y'all spending any time dissecting the idiosyncratic absurdities of the snow products when it's been bludgeoned over your heads for years that those are coarse and inaccurate ...rough-at-best 10::1 canvas products... It's not "confused" it's doing what it is programmed to do... Not sure why folks acknowledge that ...then post like it's offensive or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 993 low over Albany. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The issue with this not dropping a foot is Mid levels going above 0 this is a VERY prolific QPF producing over-running event . i would have no problem going 12-16” where this stays snow it’s at least 18 hours duration this isn’t a 6-7 hour 1.5 inch QPF thump where we are fooled by euro snow maps WPC has 1.5 QPF well into CNE , someone is getting over a foot it likely won’t be In mass due to sleet or some other mixing , not QPF or duration Obviously here that is the case, but not everywhere. Sure, someone will get over a foot. I guess there could be some widespread amounts up to 16" due to overrunning, but more often than not, it doesn't work out. Some of this could also be orographically enhanced up there, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS is going to be fun Stronger primary cutting into New York state it seems....SNE will continue the snow drought it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Rains to Maine for at least a little while on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Widespread, no, but when you have a moisture laden system slamming into an arctic air mass such as this, we have seen some prolific snow events transpire. Yes, could be one of the exceptions, especially since favored sports are over the mts. I'll def. sell the widespread 16-20", though....unless H7 closes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'll sell that sfc track though...MLs will def warm on that, but that is not going into ALB. The vort gets abused as it goes east, no way the sfc reflection penetrates that arctic dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Trend is not your friend right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Why are y'all spending any time dissecting the idiosyncratic absurdities of the snow products when it's been bludgeoned over your heads for years that those are coarse and inaccurate ...rough-at-best 10::1 canvas products... It's not "confused" it's doing what it is programmed to do... Not sure why folks acknowledge that ...then post like it's offensive or something. Ok...so the coders are confused. Just looking at a piece of modelling and how their algorithm on TT handles it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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