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January 2019 Discussion II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Darn!  too bad that NAVGEM model is what it is ...cuz that 00z run evolution was a be-a-u-tiful Miller B Nor'easter for SNE/CNE...Maine ... NYC...

prooobably not so much for snow along the I-95 corridor from Boston S... but inland SNE ... 15 to lollypopped 20"   ... one could argue in that set up that the warm penetration is too liberal, too, which would bring/scrunch the ptype profile a tad SE even. 

As far as all models, I don't believe with that high pressure situated N of Maine there is going to realize the extent of warm intrusion that we are seeing in the GFS/FV3' ...  Most important of all... said high pressure is already in that position, prior to the total system arrival, and with such a well established BL resistance already in place, there is an instant pressure responsive ageostrophic flow potential .. (say that five times fast) ... that's the ballgame!  There's no way in hell liquid alone falls even as far N as HFD.   Nope...  if "liquid" is falling from the sky, it's going to be stalagmite ... 

The Euro seems to be coming around to that resistance by forcing an elongated slow (which is elongated for other reasons...) more SE of previous..?  Question mark, because the 00z is between frames at closest pass with what identifiable surface reflection there is... at it seems to be inched SE over previous.

[edit: okay...folks seem to think it was inched NW over previous.. sure. But it doesn't change any rational/logic with the corrective BL]

...   It too has a strong enough +PP situated N, with fresh dense cP air ... established and in place.  Too much so for me to believe even it is entirely correct with detailed handling (transition zones ... lower thickness tapestry...etc)  Still more than 4.5 days out...  I think we see some inch-wise corrections if not a more obvious one that finally sees the weight of the high/llv resistance,... from all guidance for that matter.  Part of that resistance isn't just the surface high... it's the circumstantial deep layer flow with that SPV gyre over central/eastern Canada ... that's not really conducive to a west correction with out phasing more...  

We go through this every system that has a +PP circumstance N of the region.  Paranoia and lack of faith erodes the cold vastly more efficiently than verification proves is/was the case.  This geographic layout east of the eastern U.S. cordillera simply will not allow a warm intrusion with lower tropospheric vector pointing S from the N - it's nearly physically impossible to overcome topographical counter-curl vector+cold damming already in place, enough to displace positive-static stability physics from the top down. Not by forcing riding over top ... which is also - btw - S of LI at closest pass. This entire virtual situation as set up in both blend and individual modeling coverage, WILL correct S, sleet, ice in that order, OR, just be a short duration ice storm. 

Also...I say short duration ... because climo of "severe" and/or historic scenarios usually are protracted events with lighter fall rates .. The slow misting with light ZR maximizes accretion proficiency ... 29 is a great temp for that ratio... Colder than you're wasting to bouncing bee-bees...  That said... as 2008 showed, we can still pummel a region with 1 to an 1.5" accretion ...even if that is only half what falls.. I'm not saying an impact won't occur at 31.9 with heavy rain... but 2008 was unique for those parameters.  This situation ... to me, looks like 1/2 ZR with 1/2 sleet in the greatest proficiency axis, because the termination along the cP air to the WAA is going to be compressed and a taller column of cold.  

 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

On bended knees praying D5 UK scores on a bicycle kick outside the box. 

Doesnt the crazy uncle score better than most at this time frame other than of course the EURO? This far out, I guess it could be right in the end. It's all about the trends at this point and I see nothing but windshield wipers right now....that being said, I don't expect an all frozen event here, hopefully a net gain at the end without the power killing ice...

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Yeah, that has the max 26 right over top of me.  I'll sell on that.  Of course my snowblower is still down so maybe that locks it in for me.

I don't know why so many want to be in the jackpot at 5 days out.  Just the fact that Euro and EPS has been hinting up here at Day 5-6 means this will either end up in SNE or Montreal.  

The models never hit on a solution at 6 days out and ride that to hour 0.

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don't know why so many want to be in the jackpot at 5 days out.  Just the fact that Euro and EPS has been hinting up here at Day 5-6 means this will either end up in SNE or Montreal.  

The models never hit on a solution at 6 days out and ride that to hour 0.

For someone as smart as you this is brain dead logic

there is no where MORE favored than where models show it at day 5. If your in bullseye then you have most wiggle room either way.

I see this as repeated all the time as more a way to avoid the “pressure lol” of letting day 5 bullseye shape peoples forecasts . Find another spot that has a better shot at 6 inches than the middle of a day 5 EPS . There is no very high confidence play at that spot but the bullseye has best shot at warning .

people just don’t want to have to adjust down from the 18” bullseye they would rather adjust up from 5” . It’s strange when people are caught up in their heads.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For someone as smart as you this is brain dead logic

there is no where MORE favored than where models show it at day 5. If your in bullseye then you have most wiggle room either way.

 

lol ok deal Pickles.  I'll buy the beers next time you are in Stowe if this doesn't move at all for 5 days of model runs.  But if it does you are paying the tab ;).  

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol ok deal Pickles.  I'll buy the beers next time you are in Stowe if this doesn't move at all for 5 days of model runs.  But if it does you are paying the tab ;).  

Movement N or S isn’t the point . It’s that day 5 bullseye has best shot of verifying warning . It’s just the bullseye distorts people anticipated totals and they become all weird and nervous knowing it’s gonna be likely trending down from a bullseye as opposed to the “low stress of being pleasantly surprised “ when day 5 shows 1/3 of the bullseye amounts and you can trending up from a lesser event or NBD if you miss bc you aren’t anticipating much . 

It’s voodoo psychology 

 

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Tiktock

Tiktock

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Posted

Someone needs to create a website where you put in your home address and it finds the model that is currently outputting the highest possible snowfall amounts and only displays that map.  In all honesty thats the game for most until these things are within 3 days from hitting... :)

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