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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That fits with the trends.  If the Euro has the right idea even this area would see a lot of that precip as sleet or rain.  Was hoping that Leon would get off his azz

 2 more days before we know until then its fun to watch the show. Pickles will wake up in another unrecognized bed and will throw the ladies coffee pot into a wall as he looks at the Euro.

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13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wouldn’t buy it verbatim, but it needs to be considered 

Sure we can never rule anyhjng out . Could happen but as Will said.. when every other piece of guidance went SE and the Euro comes hundreds of miles NW.. it certainly should be considered that it’s the Euro overamped bias it has at day 5. What happened to using model blends like they always tell us on here? Just seems like too much Euro reliance 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sure we can never rule anyhjng out . Could happen but as Will said.. when every other piece of guidance went SE and the Euro comes hundreds of miles NW.. it certainly should be considered that it’s the Euro overamped bias it has at day 5. What happened to using model blends like theycaieats tell us on here? Just seems like too much Euro reliance 

Hundreds? Hyperbole?

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27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Unless their thinking had changed in the last day, I think Scooter, Will maybe Ray (?) and others have never ruled out a cut scenario.  I'll let them speak for themselves of course.

EDIT:  I excluded the very important "never" from this post.

You aren’t getting something that’s gonna track to buffalo or Detroit but you might see something over top of this area or over Albany.  I don’t think a real Great Lakes cutter is possible because the PV is too far to the east   

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25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You aren’t getting something that’s gonna track to buffalo or Detroit but you might see something over top of this area or over Albany.  I don’t think a real Great Lakes cutter is possible because the PV is too far to the east   

Good point.  My provincial thinking is anything west of here may as well be Montana.  :)

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30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

background winter theme has been wagons north.  Tough to argue/break that until the pattern truly takes shape for southern areas.  Overnight runs for weekend did not drastically change to think that we can see much snow for south and eastern areas of SNE.  

Eh. Tell that to people in Virginia. There's been ample suppression. 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

2.5 posters hope its not though lol.

Hard sell on those amounts though.  This isn't a storm for 12-24".

IMG_1896.thumb.PNG.90614fcce7fa77acb6f8c75b7242b95e.PNG

 

Yeah, that has the max 26 right over top of me.  I'll sell on that.  Of course my snowblower is still down so maybe that locks it in for me.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I’m sensing some good melts today if 12z rolls in amped. :popcorn:

And your already seeing signs on where they will be coming from, Last nights run were not the best i will agree, But i remain reserved at this lead time, That cold is not getting eroded here like some modeling tries to do, May pelt more after snow, But we will see.

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Eh. Tell that to people in Virginia. There's been ample suppression. 

True. We need the seasonal trend of inside D5 shit streaks to show up and start moving this SE. It won’t take much either. 50-100 miles can makes a big difference and, again, at this lead time, can be done. 

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