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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How many times can you play with fire and eventually not get burned?

Something is going to break right.

You would think the odds would dictate that. When you’re on the edge in a no blocking pattern and two s/w’s in the Plains that want to mate, usually wagons north. We’ll see. Not always given that PV. 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How many times can you play with fire and eventually not get burned?

Something is going to break right.

The difference between you and Coastalwx in this event...might as well be in a different state.  You're new spot on the NH border will be huge comparatively speaking.  Your optimism vs his skepticism seems easily identified by location.

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IT's because the GFS always has too broad of an area of low pressure running into CAD....you will typically see the sfc isobars protrude out to the E and NE over SE areas when running into an arctic airmass but the GFS doesn't like to do that as much, so it torches back to ORH or even a little more quite frequently when in reality, even a place like BOS might have trouble warming much at all.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The difference between you and Coastalwx in this event...might as well be in a different state.  You're new spot on the NH border will be huge comparatively speaking.  Your optimism vs his skepticism seems easily identified by location.

Yeah he's def in a worse spot than Ray by a lot in this event....but I can easily see this pulling a '94 with that high position where it's no chance of warming the sfc past PYM or something. But who knows...there is def a chance we could get something a lot worse...esp for SE areas. Still 5-5.5 days out. This is barely even inside of clown range...that's how long we've been tracking it.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

IT's because the GFS always has too broad of an area of low pressure running into CAD....you will typically see the sfc isobars protrude out to the E and NE over SE areas when running into an arctic airmass but the GFS doesn't like to do that as much, so it torches back to ORH or even a little more quite frequently when in reality, even a place like BOS might have trouble warming much at all.

The fact that it almost has a tuck is a red flag. Might get a weak reflection running along the canal or something and the cold oozes down from PSM.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The difference between you and Coastalwx in this event...might as well be in a different state.  You're new spot on the NH border will be huge comparatively speaking.

Yea, but I mean...I don't argue with any of his assertions...all 100% correct. We are just hedging differently.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

IT's because the GFS always has too broad of an area of low pressure running into CAD....you will typically see the sfc isobars protrude out to the E and NE over SE areas when running into an arctic airmass but the GFS doesn't like to do that as much, so it torches back to ORH or even a little more quite frequently when in reality, even a place like BOS might have trouble warming much at all.

I was really scratching my head why the GFS p-type progs are mainly rain vs snow.

Very little freezing rain and no sleet... makes no sense in this set up that there isn't a huge area of mixed precip.  This isn't a rain vs snow type thing with that low level cold. 

IMG_1895.thumb.PNG.f01b8690749ed02e3ad6c868a39c0de6.PNG 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I was really scratching my head why the GFS p-type progs are mainly rain vs snow.

Very little freezing rain and no sleet... makes no sense in this set up that there isn't a huge area of mixed precip.  This isn't a rain vs snow type thing with that low level cold. 

IMG_1895.thumb.PNG.f01b8690749ed02e3ad6c868a39c0de6.PNG 

Those are such garbage. GFS can't get out of its own way.

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