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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

ICON is def a lot flatter than 12z...I have no idea how much that means for other guidance though. If it typically matches their trends (not the exact model solution)....or if it just goes totally on its own frequently.

Its a crush job holy heck  also look at its surface temps 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

ICON is def a lot flatter than 12z...I have no idea how much that means for other guidance though. If it typically matches their trends (not the exact model solution)....or if it just goes totally on its own frequently.

Man that model has come a long way when you Mets are looking and commenting on it :lol:.  

If I was building a model though I'd release it as early as possible in the evening, gets a lot of eyes on it in the dead zone.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON is def a lot flatter than 12z...I have no idea how much that means for other guidance though. If it typically matches their trends (not the exact model solution)....or if it just goes totally on its own frequently.

How’s the JMA? WWII rule?

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The ICON looks better for Sunday because of 2 important little details. 1. the SW hangs back a little more in the southwest which some have alluded to here and 2. the high pressure to the north is stronger when the low approaches from the delaware coast than it did at 12z..

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Just now, Greg said:

The ICON looks better for Sunday because of 2 important little details. 1. the SW hangs back a little more in the southwest which some have alluded to here and 2. the high pressure to the north is stronger when the low approaches from the delaware coast than it did at 12z..

also stronger with the center me thinks

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Lol..this actually made me crack up...   :lmao:

Brian has become quite the clown, love it. He was about as stoic as it gets. Yea most look at the Icon as entertainment until the big boys show up. Like going to a Springsteen concert at MSG and theres only 1000 people in the arena while Frank and the Posse are the first warm up band of 3

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Just now, CT Rain said:

People actually use the ICON?

Besides these DWD-internal applications, many external users need ICON forecasts as basis for their products. For instance, the regional hydrological offices use the precipitation fields for flood forecasting, and the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency uses wind fields for predicting storm surges. Moreover, more than 30 national weather services, among them those of the COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) partners Italy, Poland, Romania, and Russia, and of many developing and emerging countries like Botswana, Brazil, Israel, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Tanzania, United Arabic Emirates, and Vietnam use ICON forecasts as lateral boundary conditions for limited-area forecasts.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

That would be one helluva thump for what is essentially 15 hours of snow on the ICON.  

I wonder if 24-30" has ever been realized from essentially a massive SWFE.

I highly doubt it. March '93 here was basically a front end thump and I had 20"....but the front end thump started when the storm was still down in like the FL Panhandle, lol....so it lasted for 15+ hours rather than the usual 6-8.

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