CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18z eps at least to me looked similar to 12z. Didn’t notice any huge nudge NW. 18z fv3 went back to the southeast and closer to 18z gfs op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Pretty ugly IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Pretty ugly IMO Willem Dafoe ugly. Montreal might not be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Pretty ugly IMO That just wreaks of snow. just not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yeah lots of ugly members. I’m still afraid this won’t turn out terrible wintry, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Pretty ugly IMO Extremely ugly lets bump nw more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lol. That’s awful. Rains to Maine (after a burst of snow and ice) Lets continue the bump NW and maybe we can pull a DSD MLK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ice storm averted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: the 26-27th has been showing up frequently among the various GEFs members ...there's probably something in there...whether it turns out to be a trough/flexer/cold wave reinforcing shot or a storm (or both) is gee, less certain that anything before that but ...once in the favorable pattern, all intervals of interest are non-negligible. And only 12/13 short days away. I'll get my snow blower ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Funny the mean didn’t look that bad. You’d think it would be much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Lol. That’s awful. Rains to Maine (after a burst of snow and ice) Lets continue the bump NW and maybe we can pull a DSD MLK? Whatever, I will be worried if we still have lots of members showing inside runners on Thursday morning. If tomorrow shows a noticeable trend among all models moving NW it won't be a great feeling but Thursday morning is my target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Funny the mean didn’t look that bad. You’d think it would be much worse. Hard to say on that because the low is so strung out, that the timing is all screwed up for where the low "center" is....there's probably some members with a "low" in SE OH that doesn't even cut, but it kind of appears as a cutter on the still frame there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I still feel with a powerful Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay, Canada and a powerful cold air mass entering the region on Saturday, I feel suppression is a large problem over cutter. You have some support here for this: 7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not a shocker ... the compression won't be denied! ... it's hard to get a trough axis turned around in this sort of base-line high velocity field ... wrote about this for days - we'll see I saw another post by Tip where he said he was 100% certain, but couldn't find it. He must have deleted it - no one wants to be 100% certain of anything right now. But maybe he's talking about real compression - another MA deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah lots of ugly members. I’m still afraid this won’t turn out terrible wintry, but we shall see. I’ve thought this for days, at least down here. It’ll be a brief burst of snow and sleet over to rain. Ice never materializes here, not expecting it to start now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ve thought this for days, at least down here. It’ll be a brief burst of snow and sleet over to rain. Ice never materializes here, not expecting it to start now I had 1 ice event in mid 20f growing up in Raynham . Maybe early to mid 90’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ve thought this for days, at least down here. It’ll be a brief burst of snow and sleet over to rain. Ice never materializes here, not expecting it to start now Seems like whenever there’s a warm solution along the way, that’s how it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 We've seen significant southern PV presses in the past, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. There were a couple of March storms a few years ago where the snow swath shifted like 400-500 miles south from SNE/N. Mid-Atlantic to Virginia 48-60 hrs before the event began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Ice storm averted. Don’t tell DIT that...he’s already locked in a historic ice storm lol...begging for it actually!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, JBinStoughton said: Seems like whenever there’s a warm solution along the way, that’s how it ends up. We got a great high and fresh arctic cold at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: We've seen significant southern PV presses in the past, so I'm keeping my fingers crossed. There were a couple of March storms a few years ago where the snow swath shifted like 400-500 miles south from SNE/N. Mid-Atlantic to Virginia 48-60 hrs before the event began. March of 14 it was I believe...they got like 3 storms in a row in mid March and had a terrific finish to that season, and so far south at that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Don’t tell DIT that...he’s already locked in a historic ice storm lol...begging for it actually!! Yeah, eff that. I'll take cold rain and he can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Lol, this is not cutting up through the Adirondacks. Maybe cutting between James and Nantucket though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: We got a great high and fresh arctic cold at least I still think that PV won't be denied. Good dense cold press to shunt this SE. Maybe it's a defense mechanism, who knows, but the set up of a strung out low riding a boundary doesn't seem like something that will cut and might even be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On the one hand, a little surprised to see that given the PV. On the other, fits the seasonal tenor to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 That looks like eps vomit. Either cmc wins gold or something strange is in the hood where models are OTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Lol, this is not cutting up through the Adirondacks. Maybe cutting between James and Nantucket though. Good for you and I. Naso much for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah lots of ugly members. I’m still afraid this won’t turn out terrible wintry, but we shall see. Tough to argue for a snowy solution in SNE right now given the breadth of model solutions. As we know, plenty time to change things though. Here are some thoughts in my head. I think we need to see a slower progression of s/w across the country so we can establish the cold. The lead wave for Friday coming in stronger/further N will be an indicator of where the best baroclinity will be for the follow wave. Seeing this lead wave potentially push further north is not what we’d like to see in SNE for a more wintry outcome My last thoughts are with regards to the MJO and their influence on the PAC flow. It seems like the PV in latest model runs is being displaced a bit further N. It also looks like there has been a shift of the ridge out west offshore which is not a good location for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 34 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Pretty ugly IMO This is clearly happening because Jerry shelved the Crown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Good for you and I. Naso much for many Winter season you and I are closer to CNE then SNE wrt set ups like this and how this board interprets sensible winter wx forecasts. N of RT 2 and W of I-290 is really part of CNE in Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Tough to argue for a snowy solution in SNE right now given the breadth of model solutions. As we know, plenty time to change things though. Here are some thoughts in my head. I think we need to see a slower progression of s/w across the country so we can establish the cold. The lead wave for Friday coming in stronger/further N will be an indicator of where the best baroclinity will be for the follow wave. Seeing this lead wave potentially push further north is not what we’d like to see in SNE for a more wintry outcome My last thoughts are with regards to the MJO and their influence on the PAC flow. It seems like the PV in latest model runs is being displaced a bit further N. It also looks like there has been a shift of the ridge out west offshore which is not a good location for us. Valid concerns. My focus has been on #1. Even if the Fri clipper is further north, if we can hang back the Sun energy some more initially, it can offset it. But I agree. It’s not this simple vodoo of “the PV will push this colder”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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