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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't wishcast. 

While a the more northern track is certainly a viable outcome, there is a polar vortex in relatively close proximity, and the notion that it will press is also a distinct plausibility. 

I doubt he was referring to you there. 

We hope for the full court press. 

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Now that I actually have a moment to look, this looks like a scalping for some in SNE. The warm tongue is strong with this one, but so is the push of cold. Some guidance rapidly sinks it back south when the low gets to our longitude. I’d like to see the pieces of energy sort of remain flatter and more progressive giving it less time to amp up and remain more of an elongated area of LP vs a low starting to mature. I still fear something more amped, but I still try to remain hopefully something can break our way for once. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that I actually have a moment to look, this looks like a scalping for some in SNE. The warm tongue is strong with this one, but so is the push of cold. Some guidance rapidly sinks it back south when the low gets to our longitude. I’d like to see the pieces of energy sort of remain flatter and more progressive giving it less time to amp up and remain more of an elongated area of LP vs a low starting to mature. I still fear something more amped, but I still try to remain hopefully something can break our way for once. 

I’ve seen this term “scalping” thrown around here the last year or two.  What does it refer to?

i try to keep up on the lingo but this escapes me.

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10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Or you could not be a clown and use the mean as a starting point like the pros do

Lol at throwing around amounts even semi-seriously at 132 hours out. 

 

And the comment was more making fun of the spread. Not the charts themselves. The charts are fine to look at. I like them. They highlighted the uncertainty. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If these moves continue through 12z tomorrow then the cmc gets a medal.

Yeah it would. But we still need quite a jump west for that. I'm still pretty skeptical of that given the PV crunching this shortwave as it tries to amplify and the type of airmass we're talking about. 

The GGEM stretches the PV way more than other guidance and allows it to partially phase with the main southern shortwave and it sends the low into BUF. 

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z EPS a bit more amped again. Probably some big cutters mixed into that mean. 

I’m all set w a NW trend continuing , unless we want a Rainer in SNE in areas that have been raining 

Let’s nudge back SE

GFS has se bias Navgem has SE bias . They are not close to out to sea The trends next 36 hours are huge .

 

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm not too worried about a solid thumping in Greenfield before any pellets or ice.  I am worried about plans to go to a party in Newburyport Saturday night and try to get back down Rt 2 on Sunday morning.  Start time will make all the difference. 

Ya you are not getting above 32 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m all set w a NW trend continuing , unless we want a Rainer in SNE 

Let’s nudge back SE

GFS has se bias Navgem has SE bias . They are not close to out to sea The trends next 36 hours are huge .

 

Meh. We have over 5 days still. Long time to go. I agree it would be nice for the NW trend to stop now. 

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