weathafella Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 If we can verify that euro d6-10 we can call ratter and just relax and see what happens. Meanwhile, MJO progs being js onto the good side in a few days. Maybe mid February rocks...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Actually... this run did a pretty drastic mass-field continuity change in the nearer term, too - Notice the deep core cold in that plume at 850... it doesn't really come south anymore ... or if it does, it is comparatively very brief over prior runs. It almost looks like it shunts straight east through Ontario on this run between 48 and 72 hours... sparing much incursion at all south of the border. That's gonna be funny for Chicagoans who've been warned to prepare for cryo-doom if that's real [Edit...oh never mind.. .haha, I got my days mixed up for this post - duh] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 On 1/21/2019 at 8:02 PM, weathafella said: Siberian night. Snowing lightly all evening (watch the Logan guy throw in some make up number...lol), temps very bitter, glacial landscape....too cold for man or beast! Sweet! Been a long time coming for you guys. I'm a little worried about the storm track, but a -NAO would theoretically take care of that. Either way that's a nice base you have cemented in YBY. I'm sure you only build on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Any signs of -NAO in the weeklies. Seems that's the missing piece right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Here’s our snow. 2015 on the other side of the globe. Europe is stealing our snow! I was wondering what part of the northern hemisphere was getting whacked, there it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: So, that's been growing as a signal for three days now? Yup... This is the most alarming ...well, soothing, depending upon one's preference, since the signal was more in a zygote form back whence. By the way, this is a dead match ...albeit clown range (that's certainly true and not diminished) for a Phase 5-6 MJO. ... This may just be one of those MJO's where the general circulation theme from the marine sub-continent all the way around .. is in an agreeable wave space and so it is positive interference (constructive) on the pattern roll out of the cold wave. Last year we suffered ...well, enjoyed .... depending upon one's preference, an extraordinary week of warm weather in February. That warm mass helped ignite a late season NAO. I watched as that pattern collapsed ... It seems to displace/terminate into higher latitudes over NE Atlantic and a big height node response erupted, and retrograded across the N. Atlantic the following week. That ruined spring ... making much of March cold and dreary... Not sure, what happened last April? probably more poop - that month is a piece of shit at least excuse for stench most years but anyway... Hell, why not... let's have a Rosby roll-out and a big slosh warm up before a deeper February crash happens... I agree, April is my least favorite month connected to our geographical area... ACATT pushed back to Valentines Day... Well, hopefully the warm up pans out because if the cold weather isnt in conjunction with snow, then I would rather the temps be tolerable, and dare I say pleasant??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 So are we still in the pattern of NNE storm, then a shot of the PV Lobe, then a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 22 minutes ago, Randy4Confluence said: Any signs of -NAO in the weeklies. Seems that's the missing piece right now. It's been all over the weeklies but it hasn't verified. The first period they had them was late January and it's not going to happen. The ensembles are finally showing some support for it though about a week into February. But I'd like to see it get inside 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Regardless of what happens, I don't think that my methodology was flawed, it just hasn't worked out....yet. However this slice of humble pie is probably a good indicator that the attitude needs some adjustments. Comes with experience, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of what happens, I don't think that my methodology was flawed, it just hasn't worked out....yet. However this slice of humble pie is probably a good indicator that the attitude needs some adjustments. Comes with experience, I guess. Ha ahahhaha... OH man - not laughin' at you at all, Ray but that reminds me of what our Lab prof used to say to us jokingly up in my UML days: "It's not that my forecast was wrong; the weather just didn't cooperate" my god it's a dead ringer for that sentiment ... least I think - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha ahahhaha... OH man - not laughin' at you at all, Ray but that reminds me of what our Lab prof used to say to us jokingly up in my UML days: "It's not that my forecast was wrong; the weather just didn't cooperate" my god it's a dead ringer for that sentiment ... least I think - Lol I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Ray, I think the biggest problem is the fact that we’re dealing with a sample size that’s too small to be scientifically valid. So being mindful of that should temper everyone’s confidence. In my world, some studies have a sample size of >50,000. I feel a lot more confident that the extremes have a much more muted influence. And you still could be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Jerry finally melted. The infinti apparently had snow in the back and was headed west. https://twitter.com/wbz/status/1089006432756908032/video/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Ray, I think the biggest problem is the fact that we’re dealing with a sample size that’s too small to be scientifically valid. So being mindful of that should temper everyone’s confidence. In my world, some studies have a sample size of >50,000. I feel a lot more confident that the extremes have a much more muted influence. And you still could be right... good post Jerry - unless he comes back with 1,000 points of enlightenment ... Excluding that unlikeliness, I like your reasoning here - I would also add (personally) to that discussion what he (Ray) and I discussed a couple months ago, about the hypothesis that the Pacific may vary SST inside a broader range now that the ambient Terran atmosphere is registering warmer in the full integral. There's a lot packed into that statements ... but the simple version: we 'might' just need more than a modest Modoki warm signal to trigger much response, because the atmosphere is already too warm to be effected by smaller decimal changes... It's hypothetical though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 I'm getting pretty close to cheering on a March '12 style torch here. This cold/dry, warm/wet combo is just the pits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 hours ago, weathafella said: This winter is increasingly reminding me of 1959-60. Total ratter but March was full winter starting with a blizzard using the old definition. I don’t expect that evolution especially since that was cold neutral but wx reminds me of that season. I just remember being in the car with my mother after another rainer around 2/26/60 observing the clearing and left over scud on the western horizon. The cold push afterwards was impressive and suddenly we wer off to the races. I was just envisioning a 1997redux with us getting walloped at a point when no one gives a crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I was just envisioning a 1997redux with us getting walloped at a point when no one gives a crap. Although that one would be worth it-among the very best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of what happens, I don't think that my methodology was flawed, it just hasn't worked out....yet. However this slice of humble pie is probably a good indicator that the attitude needs some adjustments. Comes with experience, I guess. I hope you don't actually believe this, that's vodoo science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of what happens, I don't think that my methodology was flawed, it just hasn't worked out....yet. However this slice of humble pie is probably a good indicator that the attitude needs some adjustments. Comes with experience, I guess. It's not over yet Ray but predicting weather is a tough business. You got the broad strokes right but we've also have had a run of bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of what happens, I don't think that my methodology was flawed, it just hasn't worked out....yet. However this slice of humble pie is probably a good indicator that the attitude needs some adjustments. Comes with experience, I guess. Yeah, don't be hard on yourself. As someone said before, it's a tough business when it comes to long-term forecasts. Just look at Tom (Isotherm), he's one of the smartest guys on here plus he does it for a living with energy companies I think, and you two were pretty much in agreement on this winter. You've had an amazing run and will only get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 hours ago, Hoth said: I'm getting pretty close to cheering on a March '12 style torch here. This cold/dry, warm/wet combo is just the pits. Um, I cheer on a March 2012 every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Kind of like how this guy lays out his predictions. A bit similar to the CPC http://epawaweather.com/long-range-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: I hope you don't actually believe this, that's vodoo science What is voo doo science? Care to enlighten me as to what wash obvious flag last fall for a $hit winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 32 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Yeah, don't be hard on yourself. As someone said before, it's a tough business when it comes to long-term forecasts. Just look at Tom (Isotherm), he's one of the smartest guys on here plus he does it for a living with energy companies I think, and you two were pretty much in agreement on this winter. You've had an amazing run and will only get better. Still plenty of time, but I'm a straight shooter....I am frustrated right now. I don't like to keep shoveling BS in the face of reality. Not ready to declare any outcome yet, though. I won't believe that Feb will fail until I witness it. I am strongly opinionated, though.....if this does end up being a bad call, plenty of criticism is warranted. That is the risk that you take when you forecast with confidence. We aren't there yet, though....this season has been very similar to 1969, another one of my top analogs, and that season went nuclear in Feb. I think guidance is missing something right now, and blocking will be more pronounced than it currently appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Um, I cheer on a March 2012 every year. Break out the Pro V1s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is voo doo science? I think if your methodology is solid you'll have success more often than not. Does it mean you'll be right 100% of the time? No, but that doesn't make it voodoo in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think if your methodology is solid you'll have success more often than not. Does it mean you'll be right 100% of the time? No, but that doesn't make it voodoo in my opinion. Exactly. I know I rub people the wrong way with the smug posting style, and that coupled with the frustration of a crap first half causes some venom...but you give me the same set of indicators next season, then I'll go ballz to the walls again and probably nail it like I usually do. The folks like omega can sit on that and spin- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Helluva time for the Pac jet to come roaring back. There is some hope of a hemispheric regression after the thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Helluva time for the Pac jet to come roaring back. There is some hope of a hemispheric regression after the thaw Yeah, not good. With the lost time we'll need to hit on a couple 2fts and a 3fter to get to near 80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still plenty of time, but I'm a straight shooter....I am frustrated right now. I don't like to keep shoveling BS in the face of reality. Not ready to declare any outcome yet, though. I won't believe that Feb will fail until I witness it. I am strongly opinionated, though.....if this does end up being a bad call, plenty of criticism is warranted. That is the risk that you take when you forecast with confidence. We aren't there yet, though....this season has been very similar to 1969, another one of my top analogs, and that season went nuclear in Feb. I think guidance is missing something right now, and blocking will be more pronounced than it currently appears. Yeah you are a straight shooter but you're damn good at what you do. Anyway, hopefully you're right about February. I was staying positive until I came to realization that there will be a warm-up extending into the first full week of Feb after the arctic blast next week. Seeing that really put one foot over the ledge for me when it comes to this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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