EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 GEFS looks like on the whole they have had a pretty notable negative bias on the PNA. It's verified higher than forecast. Prob makes sense given El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Well that’s a better look on the MJO. Yesterday it had its usual BS of skipping over 7-8-1 and doubling back to 6-5 in the extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 31 minutes ago, tamarack said: Coldest for me was in N. Maine, January 1982. Temp -34 and winds 25G35 - don't have WCI table handy, but I think that's in the 65-70 range. My first visit to Sugarloaf was at the height of that cold...it was such an unpleasant experience that I didn't ski for remainder of season and the next one. Brutal cold and winds with frostbite on my face everytime I took a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I could see that. Weeklies have been decent. Weeklies have been better than decent...its just a matter of whether they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Well that’s a better look on the MJO. Yesterday it had its usual BS of skipping over 7-8-1 and doubling back to 6-5 in the extended ECMWF has been leading the way. The ugly pattern on the ensembles was embedded in the CFS and weeklies so not a surprise. Isotherm and to and extent Don are still optimistic. All it takes is one good 3 week pattern to fet us to average, so still optimistic myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: ECMWF has been leading the way. The ugly pattern on the ensembles was embedded in the CFS and weeklies so not a surprise. Isotherm and to and extent Don are still optimistic. All it takes is one good 3 week pattern to fet us to average, so still optimistic myself. I’m doing my best to hold to optimism but what Snoski mentioned earlier concerns me. After the cold and dry next week, it looks like another warm up the first full week of February. Say that lasts a week, that leaves us with only 3 weeks of February left. I know March can bring the goods (like last year) but I never bank on that as moderating temps, sunlight angles and length of day, and of course climo. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, BombsAway1288 said: I’m doing my best to hold to optimism but what Snoski mentioned earlier concerns me. After the cold and dry next week, it looks like another warm up the first full week of February. Say that lasts a week, that leaves us with only 3 weeks of February left. I know March can bring the goods (like last year) but I never bank on that as moderating temps, sunlight angles and length of day, and of course climo. We shall see Definately not ideal to loose an entire week in FEB, and if I were a betting man I probably would not bet on climo for snowfall, but I look to 2015 2016. Completely shut out only to go into a 3 week blitz to get within 3 inches of climo. Then had a late March 3 incher to get to climo in a warm super nino. We already had the big November event and a smaller one last week. So if last half of Feb and 1st half of March deliver, we are good. Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Definately not ideal to loose an entire week in FEB, and if I were a betting man I probably would not bet on climo for snowfall, but I look to 2015 2016. Completely shut out only to go into a 3 week blitz to get within 3 inches of climo. Then had a late March 3 incher to get to climo in a warm super nino. We already had the big November event and a smaller one last week. So if last half of Feb and 1st half of March deliver, we are good. Hopefully it works out. Agreed but we need something to deliver big in Feb to get there and not just bank on March delivering. If we had into March with say only 3 more inches or so for all of February, this place is going to have worse morale than people working for the TSA or IRS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 hour ago, Angus said: My first visit to Sugarloaf was at the height of that cold...it was such an unpleasant experience that I didn't ski for remainder of season and the next one. Brutal cold and winds with frostbite on my face everytime I took a run. That -34 was on a Monday morning. The previous morning, as temps plummeted thru the minus teens, I saw one of those thin plastic dry-cleaner bags shatter in the cold. Fellow holding the suit was impressed. Seeing -24 on the bank sign at 3:30 PM was impressive, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We don't have a ton of margin for error because the NAO blocking has not been there, but its not been a 2007 or 1995, either. Given the latter, usually we would have some SWs flex at just the right time to avail themselves of the antecedent airmass, but it just hasn't happen. Up until 1/20, I think it was a combo of bad luck and the SSW screwing with things that left less snowfall than my outlook would imply, however from this week forward, my efforts are more culpable because there still isn't an NAO developing yet. That is a miss on my part....the only thing that was beforehand is the SSW....which I think manifested as a net detriment to us. We didn't need it....I think it focused blocking on the other side of the globe, and actually provided some deconstructive interference to Atlantic blocking....but that is admittedly speculation of my part. However I also said that it didn't matter which side of the globe it focuses on, as it would just mean less bitter cold, and that looks to have been wrong. 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Having the SSW focus on the other side of the globe didn't doom us...it left us less margin for error because it created a more hostile envt. for NAO assist IMO....but I never thought we roll double zero's this many times consecutively when left to the mercy of synoptic timing and nuances. Still time. Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If things don't turn around...this will be a good "fraud" test for those like Raindancewx, who championed analogs like 2006 and 1994. I'll be waiting eagerly for them to claim absolute victory due snowfall numbers being accurate for the wrong reason. I know people like Scott remember that Cohen did that in 2015, even though we did it without the NAO. I slammed that point home in the most mortem...even though I ostensibly nailed the season, I missed on the NAO/AO...thus the call wasn't an "A" in my book. I think I gave myself like a "B". Not there yet, tough, and I still don't think we will get to that point. These posts are probably better suited for this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Good to see the LR cutters lining up on the 12z GFS. Make it spring already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Good to see the LR cutters lining up on the 12z GFS. Make it spring already. It’s been showing that all winter and that hasn’t verified at all. The majority of storms have tracked mostly along the coast or just inland and we’ve had a couple of SWFEs. There hasn’t been one solid Lakes cutter since early to mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It’s been showing that all winter and that hasn’t verified at all. The majority of storms have tracked mostly along the coast or just inland and we’ve had a couple of SWFEs. There hasn’t been one solid Lakes cutter since early to mid December There’s been a lot of rain followed by cold and dry. Whether that tracks over detroit or hartford, nobody notices nor cares. Toss the gfs OP but this season is fading like Lightning McQueen in Cars 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Here’s our snow. 2015 on the other side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There’s been a lot of rain followed by cold and dry. Whether that tracks over detroit or hartford, nobody notices nor cares. Toss the gfs OP but this season is fading like Lightning McQueen in Cars 3. We could set record for most rainers , legitimately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: We could set record for most rainers , legitimately I’m sure Will has the record stored in his mental hard drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m sure Will has the record stored in his mental hard drive. For rainers , no ...I don’t believe so . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m sure Will has the record stored in his mental hard drive. This winter is increasingly reminding me of 1959-60. Total ratter but March was full winter starting with a blizzard using the old definition. I don’t expect that evolution especially since that was cold neutral but wx reminds me of that season. I just remember being in the car with my mother after another rainer around 2/26/60 observing the clearing and left over scud on the western horizon. The cold push afterwards was impressive and suddenly we wer off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 52 minutes ago, weathafella said: This winter is increasingly reminding me of 1959-60. Total ratter but March was full winter starting with a blizzard using the old definition. I don’t expect that evolution especially since that was cold neutral but wx reminds me of that season. I just remember being in the car with my mother after another rainer around 2/26/60 observing the clearing and left over scud on the western horizon. The cold push afterwards was impressive and suddenly we wer off to the races. Is this your best a-game "cheer up folks there's still time" pep rally ? perhaps... Not that anyone asked for me opinion but who the hell cares if it snows in March. It's like a 90 year old with Alzheimer's winning the lottery. Buuut, I've come to realize that for the members that regular here ... if it snowed in July it would take this particular crew about 10 minutes to gin up a 50 page thread ...the content in which reads as though there is no other reality outside the width of the PC or iPhone delivery system. Jesus... 14 days... 14 days and the perennial solar nadir is over. If we make it that far and the dearth is unrelenting, my personal druthers flip really quick. Not sayin' it now, but should we arrive upon Feb 10 in the same plight ... I'll be musing to self how 'this f'n winter can't get over fast enough' - the count down to that internal monologue is on... Of course, we're doomed just for saying that - understood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Is this your best a-game "cheer up folks there's still time" pep rally ? perhaps... But, not that anyone asked but who the hell cares if it snows in March. It's like a 90 year old with Alzheimer's winning the lottery. Buuut, I've come to realize here that if it snowed in July it take this particular crew about 10 minutes to gin up a 50 page thread ...the content in which reads as though there is no other reality outside the width of the PC or iPhone delivery system. Jesus... 14 days... 14 days and the perennial solar nadir is over. If we make that far, my personal druthers flip really quick. Not sayin' it now, but should we arrive upon Feb 10 in the same plight ... I'll be musing to self how 'this f'n winter can't get over fast enough' Of course, we're doomed just for saying that - understood... Man you’re too emotional about this stuff. All I was doing was drawing a parallel in how this season is progressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Meanwhile euro op torches everyone east of the Rockies in clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man you’re too emotional about this stuff. All I was doing was drwing a parallel in how this season is progressing. Ha, nice try ... .. there is no chance your sermon about 'off to the races' late had any intent whatsoever to rescue you're own torment. oooh k I'm just yankin' chains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 What a brutal euro run past D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: perhaps... Not that anyone asked for me opinion but who the hell cares if it snows in March. It's like a 90 year old with Alzheimer's winning the lottery. So, if it's March 8th, and we have a blizzard bearing down on us for March 10th, we won't see any Tip posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ha, nice try ... .. there is no chance your sermon about 'off to the races' late had any intent whatsoever to rescue you're own torment. oooh k I'm just yankin' chains... Yeah that's a furnace. Its getting some support from the ensembles too. That would cause some good melts. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Is this your best a-game "cheer up folks there's still time" pep rally ? perhaps... Not that anyone asked for me opinion but who the hell cares if it snows in March. It's like a 90 year old with Alzheimer's winning the lottery. Buuut, I've come to realize that for the members that regular here ... if it snowed in July it would take this particular crew about 10 minutes to gin up a 50 page thread ...the content in which reads as though there is no other reality outside the width of the PC or iPhone delivery system. Jesus... 14 days... 14 days and the perennial solar nadir is over. If we make it that far and the dearth is unrelenting, my personal druthers flip really quick. Not sayin' it now, but should we arrive upon Feb 10 in the same plight ... I'll be musing to self how 'this f'n winter can't get over fast enough' - the count down to that internal monologue is on... Of course, we're doomed just for saying that - understood... I’m sure you’d be one of the first to post about a July snowstorm in sne. You’d marvel at the anomolous potential as you watch the steam escape your coffee mug on cool July morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Meanwhile euro op torches everyone east of the Rockies in clown range. So, that's been growing as a signal for three days now? Yup... This is the most alarming ...well, soothing, depending upon one's preference, since the signal was more in a zygote form back whence. By the way, this is a dead match ...albeit clown range (that's certainly true and not diminished) for a Phase 5-6 MJO. ... This may just be one of those MJO's where the general circulation theme from the marine sub-continent all the way around .. is in an agreeable wave space and so it is positive interference (constructive) on the pattern roll out of the cold wave. Last year we suffered ...well, enjoyed .... depending upon one's preference, an extraordinary week of warm weather in February. That warm mass helped ignite a late season NAO. I watched as that pattern collapsed ... It seems to displace/terminate into higher latitudes over NE Atlantic and a big height node response erupted, and retrograded across the N. Atlantic the following week. That ruined spring ... making much of March cold and dreary... Not sure, what happened last April? probably more poop - that month is a piece of shit at least excuse for stench most years but anyway... Hell, why not... let's have a Rosby roll-out and a big slosh warm up before a deeper February crash happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: So, if it's March 8th, and we have a blizzard bearing down on us for March 10th, we won't see any Tip posts? Don't read in too deep ... I'm making light of a shit winter (to date ) with commiserating dark humor... . If we got to March 8 and it's been the same the whole way, I'll post about the storm because it is interesting meteorologically... I would covet not wanting it tho. But ... wanting vs being in reality ...it's an interesting dilemma for many users in here - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 I suggest if the Euro's right with that complete Rosby reversal, that early in the year ... we may want to watch the NAO domain in the prognostics deeper in February ... Frankly though, I suspect the Euro is overdone - how vastly so remains to be seen...But I could see that just being reduced to a transient warm sector that ...maybe has an extra day (okay) and a Lakes cutter. I realize there are those that live and die by the EPS and so forth but still... as someone that has a lot of experience using the GEFs teleconnectors, I do not believe they will be as far off as would be necessary for May 10th to occur on Ground Hog Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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