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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

The Euro is certainly not as reliable as it once was, but we've seen the GFS puke all over itself so many times with east coast cyclogenesis that I'm always inclined to minimally weight its output. I can't speak for your area, but the Euro wasn't giving me 20 inches inside 24 hours with the most recent system. It busted warm with the surface temps too, and gave me a cold rain instead of major ice, but it was not off by 25+ degrees like the GFS. I'm also skeptical of the upcoming system. Maybe it pans out, but it seems to develop too late for my area at least. Maybe eastern Mass up into NNE get smoked. Perhaps nobody does. We'll see. It's folly to think I care enough either way to scapegoat a model for not showing what I'd like to see. Would it be nice to see snow? Sure. But it's not like I've been in Saharan Africa for a decade. My thoughts will tend toward warmer weather, sun dresses and sails soon enough anyway. If it snows, great. If not, I've got another 5 decades of average life expectancy. We'll give it another go next year.

I am down to 2 decades

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Has BOS or ORH ever had a sub zero max temp?

ORH has done it twice. 1/8/68 they had a high of -2 and 12/30/1917 they had a high of -1. 

Theyve had a few 0F highs and of course last week had a high of 1F. There's been a few afternoons too that we're below zero but they had cheap midnight highs or something similar. 

 

BOS has never done it. Closest they got was 2F on 12/30/1917. 

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5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Despite the heavy rain yesterday, it is full on, glacial snow pack winter, over the interior right now. Anywhere N&W of Savoy pass to Orange along Rt 2 has solid glaciated snow cover.  Even downtown Greenfield is solid 3-4"+ of frozen.

Just piles left here.  Gone like Donkey Kong...

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just piles left here.  Gone like Donkey Kong...

What about woods? We actually have probably 70-80% cover in woods here and maybe 20-25% in open areas. Still ugly but I take the silver linings where I can get them this winter. We did have an obscene amount of qpf as sleet here though. Prob more qpf than NW in your 'hood so that might have helped keep a little more cover. 

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What about woods? We actually have probably 70-80% cover in woods here and maybe 20-25% in open areas. Still ugly but I take the silver linings where I can get them this winter. We did have an obscene amount of qpf as sleet here though. Prob more qpf than NW in your 'hood so that might have helped keep a little more cover. 

Natick?

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By Jan. 22, weekly ice coverage across all five Great Lakes was at 23 percent, according to the Canadian Ice Service of Environment Canada. That's slightly above the 30-year average (1981-2010) of about 19 percent for that week.  After next week those numbers are going to skyrocket.  But in the meantime, the lake effect snows should be substantial in places where the ice has not taken hold yet, Buffalo for one such place.

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44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is everyone going to ignore the fact that the GEFS/EPS have eastern ridging with AN heights from Feb 2-10. 

The Pacific in particular looks like a disaster with a raging jet re-emerging. 

It's time to start talking about that scenario though as our TV Mets as well as TWC long range Mets have been talking about Pac air flooding the whole country after SB weekend.

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