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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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I actually recall that pic being made on some topic that powderfreak and I were both promoting and everyone else was poo-pooing like IVT snows or something...and someone said "they can go prance down the street in their reindeer sweaters while the rest of us don't give a crap" or something like that...lol. And then the photoshop happened. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually recall that pic being made on some topic that powderfreak and I were both promoting and everyone else was poo-pooing like IVT snows or something...and someone said "they can go prance down the street in their reindeer sweaters while the rest of us don't give a crap" or something like that...lol. And then the photoshop happened. 

The matching sweatshirts make it

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe it does poorly in this kind of setup?  It has been really really bad as of late (from what I can see).   I don’t have the current verification scores, but ugh

We have had multiple types of set ups that its done bad on, I think it just sucks period.

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This a question from the average public layman. Regarding all the different weather models, they all have their own parameters and bias in processing the same data I believe. But generally they do not agree on much until maybe the very last hours before a potential weather event. Toss this run and then toss that run. Have we all come to accept that these models are the best we can have and so they all are just accepted as is? Will there ever be a model that is not quirky? Thanks

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Just now, photovision said:

This a question from the average public layman. Regarding all the different weather models, they all have their own parameters and bias in processing the same data I believe. But generally they do not agree on much until maybe the very last hours before a potential weather event. Toss this run and then toss that run. Have we all come to accept that these models are the best we can have and so they all are just accepted as is? Will there ever be a model that is not quirky? Thanks

Chaos prevents any exact match. More data in does help but their is a limit hence why human forecasts are so important. 

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31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

PF looks so happy being with Will but Will kinda looks like he’s eyeing another weenie, he’s done with this one.

Used and abused.  Tossed to the side like the GFS.  

I find it hilarious that Eric in Maine doesn't post much anymore but he drove by to drop that image in here.  

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4 hours ago, Hoth said:

GFS also told me I was going to be 55 degrees last Saturday while it was 28 with freezing rain. Tossed. Always tossed.

Im not sure I agree with your reputation of the GFS. 

When it was forecasting that 55 rain the euro was forecasting 20 inches of snow… What happens? Something in between. 

Grantedthe GFS is not as good as the euro model but it's not as bad as you guys are making it out to be. 

Sounds like people so desperate for the emotional high of a snowstorm in the models and not seeing one that they're just scapegoating. 

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Im not sure I agree with your reputation of the GFS. 

When it was forecasting that 55 rain the euro was forecasting 20 inches of snow… What happens? Something in between. 

Grantedthe GFS is not as good as the euro model but it's not as bad as you guys are making it out to be. 

Sounds like people so desperate for the emotional high of a snowstorm in the models and not seeing one that they're just scapegoating. 

The Euro is certainly not as reliable as it once was, but we've seen the GFS puke all over itself so many times with east coast cyclogenesis that I'm always inclined to minimally weight its output. I can't speak for your area, but the Euro wasn't giving me 20 inches inside 24 hours with the most recent system. It busted warm with the surface temps too, and gave me a cold rain instead of major ice, but it was not off by 25+ degrees like the GFS. I'm also skeptical of the upcoming system. Maybe it pans out, but it seems to develop too late for my area at least. Maybe eastern Mass up into NNE get smoked. Perhaps nobody does. We'll see. It's folly to think I care enough either way to scapegoat a model for not showing what I'd like to see. Would it be nice to see snow? Sure. But it's not like I've been in Saharan Africa for a decade. My thoughts will tend toward warmer weather, sun dresses and sails soon enough anyway. If it snows, great. If not, I've got another 5 decades of average life expectancy. We'll give it another go next year.

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