40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Don't forget....the system is also gaining better dynamics as it heads northeast, so I would keep expectations in SW NE in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Even I could use a slight east shift. A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here. heh.. I like the 969 mb position 25 mi sw of Block Island... I'd like to see that member's depiction purely for the morbid cinema - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Even I could use a slight east shift. A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here. Verbatim, I may just get to double digits on the season if that plays out. Hot dog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I have to say that if we don't get predominatly snow with this, and then another all snow event within 5 days after, then it will be a crushing emotional blow for this weenie. Hope has been sustaining me, but that EPS snow mean was nothing different than the recent pattern has been producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter. I was too scared to weight 1969 more heavily than I did....I should have grown a pair. I told you in November it was the best ENSO analog. Its been less RNA and less NAO than that season, but we haven't reaped any of the benefits of more PNA, so far. Hopefully the NAO comes through...it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't forget....the system is also gaining better dynamics as it heads northeast, so I would keep expectations in SW NE in check. It has a crazy tight gradient...so you probably want the low to track just east of Cape Ann going gangbusters at that point....would prob give you a few hours of blizzard conditions on that setup. The OP Euro basically tracked it right over the interior up to Tamarack's fanny and we saw how close that was. We don't need this over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Ukmet looks like a rather sudden secondary ...even appears to take it's low just slightly E of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: He was due for some payback after he was spending many recent years staying up until 3am drinking scotch and looking at ARW runs that hit Stowe while the rest of the models were jackpotting Scooter. Living life with the ARW and GGEM. Good partners in crime for about 4 winters there ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It has a crazy tight gradient...so you probably want the low to track just east of Cape Ann going gangbusters at that point....would prob give you a few hours of blizzard conditions on that setup. The OP Euro basically tracked it right over the interior up to Tamarack's fanny and we saw how close that was. We don't need this over ACK. I favor a track just east of Boston...probably southeast MA....could get a Dec 2005 lite closing act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We don't need it over ack per se, But i wouldn't mind seeing it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I favor a track east of Boston...probably southeast MA....could get a Dec 2005 lite closing act. Yeah that's prob what we're going for to try and score on this one...a 4-5 hour blizzard. There's obviously some scenarios where it could work out in perfect fashion where we get a bunch of overrunning along the front if it sets up east of us and then we get the blizzard later on, but that is a long shot. I think the most likely path to a "successful" storm is the rain/snow/slop flash freezing over to a 5 hour blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 NW MA is going to net gain next week. We gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 this thing is maxing SD huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's prob what we're going for to try and score on this one...a 4-5 hour blizzard. There's obviously some scenarios where it could work out in perfect fashion where we get a bunch of overrunning along the front if it sets up east of us and then we get the blizzard later on, but that is a long shot. I think the most likely path to a "successful" storm is the rain/snow/slop flash freezing over to a 5 hour blizzard. Yea.....I mentioned earlier...tick PNA ridge a hair west and phase just the right amount of PV in, and there is a path to a blizzard. But that is a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Crushes Southbury, CT 2” crushjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't forget....the system is also gaining better dynamics as it heads northeast, so I would keep expectations in SW NE in check. We know how Miller B’s go here, no expectations esp at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 Will.. remember back ... page 55 or something of this thread I think it was, we were remarking the extended range Euro with it's absurdly deep anomaly into the OV ? well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2” crushjob. Look past model output verbatim ...this is WSW warning for just about all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 KGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We know how Miller B’s go here, no expectations esp at this lead time. W of the river you want Miller A or cold SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2” crushjob. for this year it is a crushjob... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 So it may mean nothing in the end but the NAM is so ridiculously different than its 12z run right now, it currently has a 994 off the GA Coast. Much closer to what the EURO has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Uh-oh. More can kicking? Let the panic ensue! Not trying to ruffle feathers, but reason to be concerned or was this foretold in the weaklies? Just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: for this year it is a crushjob... Oddly, the only two worthwhile storms in Greenfield have been warning 6"+ and 9"+, 2 months apart and almost no nickel and dimes in between. Weird, weird winter. I imagine I am not to far behind average to date. Have 18.5" on the snow table but probably closer to 20"+ since I neglected to record a few .5" events out of frustration. Can only improve from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: So it may mean nothing in the end but the NAM is so ridiculously different than its 12z run right now, it currently has a 994 off the GA Coast. Much closer to what the EURO has. Still too Far East but talk about a huge shift west. 990 east of hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: KGW WSW’s going up in the 4pm package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Even I could use a slight east shift. A lot of lows on the Ensembles like the GGEM, tracking it over my fanny in VT. But overall, getting a deepening low near BOS and PWM often works out well here. Like we need reminding lol. FyI the thaw in 69 up there happened this week too. Expect to keep crushing it maxing out last week of March. Congrats man its your winter of your dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: WSW’s going up in the 4pm package. Nothing says big snows like a cluster of lows over CEF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: W of the river you want Miller A or cold SWFE. At this point I think a Miller Highlife is the preferred mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nothing says big snows like a cluster of lows over CEF. With the mean up over KGAY. We like where we sit in WNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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