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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Boston and NYC gets screwed again while DC gets a few inches. 

It's like the weather gods are pissed at NYC and Boston because of the playoffs.

The weather gods are still exhausted after the epic pounding in 2015.  They figure that should have satisfied you guys for a long time.

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27 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Want that thing to develop a bit earlier and farther south to get a nice cold conveyorbelt going for SNE. 

Mm, agreed ... I would hunch/add, in that look that there is an elevated warm tongue and very tall sleet column all the way almost back to the Capital District of eastern NY there.   

It just doesn't seem the secondary gets its act together fast enough to close off the 700 in time - maybe.  

Having said that ... this is an alarming trend that's actually been ongoing for several cycles of Euro camp ... possibly even led by the EPS ... It seems recent Euro oper. guidance has been ceding to it's ensemble mean... 

We'll see if it continues.  Heh, the Euro cluster is kinda sorta on an island now but ...we got time.  Obviously you know all this just sayn' for the general reader

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21 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Want that thing to develop a bit earlier and farther south to get a nice cold conveyorbelt going for SNE. 

It looks to me like the EURO is more proficiently phasing the PV in with that southern SW off of the east coast, however the issue I see is that there is still nothing to prevent a more tucked track should it succeed in doing so. Maybe a decent front end job-taint-arctic blast?

This current stretch would be Feb '15 if we had blocking.

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11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Wouldnt the low want to tend to get tugged west into the pv?

... on a bald planetary interface with free-atmosphere, sure... 

But the cordillera west, along with having CAD'ed dense air over the coastal plain (...which is pretty pronounced with that high situated smartly up N) both offer resistance to a low summarily wrapping in

I mean, it's the basic secondary model ... So as that exit region of the jet and curvature nose over and difluence approaches the lower viscosity of the near shore waters, the new low is conserved ...  

 

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13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Wouldnt the low want to tend to get tugged west into the pv?

 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... on a bald planetary interface with free-atmosphere, sure... 

But the cordillera west, along with having CAD'ed dense air over the coastal plain (...which is pretty pronounced with that high situated smartly up N) both offer resistance to a low summarily wrapping in

I mean, it's the basic secondary model ... So as that exit region of the jet and curvature nose over and difluence approaches the lower viscosity of the near shore waters, the new low is conserved ...  

 

TIPPY TRANSLATION:  "Not necessarily...………………."

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... on a bald planetary interface with free-atmosphere, sure... 

But the cordillera west, along with having CAD'ed dense air over the coastal plain (...which is pretty pronounced with that high situated smartly up N) both offer resistance to a low summarily wrapping in

I mean, it's the basic secondary model ... So as that exit region of the jet and curvature nose over and difluence approaches the lower viscosity of the near shore waters, the new low is conserved ...  

 

Yea, that is sufficient resistance to a track over Albany, but I don't see how this tracks east of the CC cancel given a proficient phase....unless the whole axis shifts east, which is this range is unlikely.

I'll tell you.....someone on the western edge is going to get a hellacious deformation with the +pp abutting explosive PV phasing.

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Looking at all the OP guidance, the EURO is the closest to something good for more people.  The GGEM tracks it up over VT, and the GFS wasn't all that inspiring.  

It seems the models do want to pull the low back west towards the upper level trough....gotta keep that whole shebang to the east.

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Ray that's essentially true. 

The Euro is attempting more phase ... it also seems to have a subtly more conserved s/w in the southern stream ...helping some of the pallid tendency to subsume. 

I mean I'm not commenting on likeliness of all that happening but that does appear to be what it's going for -

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is sufficient resistance to a track over Albany, but I don't see how this tracks east of the CC cancel given a proficient phase....unless the whole axis shifts east, which is this range is unlikely.

I'll tell you.....someone on the western edge is going to get a hellacious deformation with the +pp abutting explosive PV phasing.

Yea. Its got a more subdued feb 2011 late jan 66 march 1888 look. 

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