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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It says 22 and 23...today is the 25th???  So not exactly 14 years ago today..but close enough I suppose.

This week, I modified my post. I was looking at my printed pictures which are dated the 25th when I took a road trip to Cape Cod. It was like visiting Antarctic 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

One of my top three favorite storms!  Sideways +SN for hours on end.   I was in Cambridge then, of course I would be furious had I been living in Greenfield which had 1/3 as much snow as Eastern areas.

I was dry slotted for a while ended up with 16 but it was seriously a beast

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This week, I modified my post. I was looking at my printed pictures which are dated the 25th when I took a road trip to Cape Cod. It was like visiting Antarctic 

The pics of snow caked to houses were great. I hate that storm but it sparked Jimmy’s novel....so I am thankful he got it.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wolf back from the white north angry how awful the scene looks in SNE. 

LOL....certainly a different world way up there.  

We need to catch a break here, you would think something would/should give at some point???  And I know sometimes it just doesn't...I grew up in the 80's and I remember how everything would always go wrong..almost all the time, so I understand how this can just stay as is right through to the end too...hoping that doesn't happen though??? 

 

I get the MJO is part of it all no doubt....but as I said earlier this winter(back in Dec) it's this years Catch phrase; like PV was 5 years back, and NAO was before that, and EPO was back in 15 etc etc....

 

 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The pics of snow caked to houses were great. I hate that storm but it sparked Jimmy’s novel....so I am thankful he got it.

I’ve said it a million times, but it was the most impressive storm I’ve seen down there, day  after.  Drifts to second stories, cars being removed by front end loaders etc. Amazing. 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

lol.  That's what you decided to comment on?

Just picture someone pounding their keyboard... IT WASN'T EXACTLY 14 YEARS AGO DAMMIT!

That storm was nothing spectacular here...12-13 inches or so..so not that memorable for my area.  But I get that it was a powerhouse and eastern areas got buried.  It just hit me that the dates were a lil off....no worries.

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the more important question is why? Not why not.

There's really nothing for sunday. If the midwest trough ad reel in the ocean storm like Scooter and I were talking about, that would be more on Monday night and not Sunday.

The only thing that is being reeled in is James Weenie

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24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I suppose....but I think you're much to hung up on it....but just my opinion. It may be part of the entire picture, but its not the end all be all either.

I think NAO,PNA,EPO,AO,MJO are all pieces.  Getting the information can’t hurt.  Euro MJO looked pretty good going forward.

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Heh... all that ... and, 

Re Tuesday: that Euro run is a triple point secondary, period.  There's no way - if it's total pressure pattern is correct - anywhere in New England warm sectors ...

Looks like snow to ice in the interior, with snow to cold rain along and SE of the I-95 over eastern sections, with the usual headaches along the south coast in that total evolution. 

Again ...that's all relative to this one model solution cycle

Having said that, the trend is unmistakable ... ah, I mean to those that pay attention to trends... The EPS shifts inches toward more committal to secondary/Miller B antics across three cycles and this 00z run seems to have maintained that trend. As well, this oper. Euro run is actually starting to sag to the weight of it's ensemble mean, as prior runs showed it to be a bit of a NW outlier relative to that mean. 

SO, not a declaration of determinism here... but, that's a trend that winter enthusiasts may (or not..) appreciate, and one that may also not be finish ... perhaps being the elephant in the discussion. 

Also, the parahumorist model, FV3' ... it showed a delicated transition to a Miller B-like solution ...with definite coherency for more boundary layer  cold resistance through than the operational version... I also don't think UKMET and GGEM are designed for this sort of sensitive forcing at this time range for BL kinematics. Those models have some sort of ancestral echo to plumb deep layer troposheric waves early and that doesn't parlay well toward +PP N/NE of Main... Not as concerned if those runs don't show more at this time range.  [edit: actually I must have looked at the older GGEM because the 00z run upon second glance did commit more to a Del Marva relow ... which is surprising to me actually considering]

Having said all that ... the offsets are there too... There is still a predominating issue with too much compression/velocity saturation in the flow... What the EPS and Euro really want to do (you can almost just sense it...) is full bore subsume the SPV south into some kind of exotic result... but, the flow being lofty in heights along the Gulf interface prior to the amplitude through the 50th parallel ... really buffers ... and squeezes and instead of the subsume model playing out...the southern component squirts through and its a "shearing phase" ... It also doesn't help that the L/W space is unusually long ... owing to the very cold nature of the L/W trough and the velocities it creates mechanically stretching the flow.  

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7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif.575e5262706c88373366bcdd49995c28.gif

I mentioned this yesterday ... the behavior across recent days and prognostication going forward, when considering individual run behavior, as well as the blended mean ... really is remarkably similar to those Phased 3-6 --> Phase 7-8 that transpired between ...roughly New years up through about a week ago.  

It seems the Hemisphere is in some sort of very stolid configuration/patterning that is not really susceptible to modalities ...based upon inputs by the MJO super-synoptic influence.  

That just means that the wave may be less effectual in modulating (adding too...or taking away) from the pattern over the last 45 days or so, relative to phase correlation and so forth... 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hopefully Diane gets to witness this as happened 14 years ago this week. Our late friend Scott Messenger often referred to this as his white Hurricane. His elevated home on the ocean he claimed easily gusted over 100

nws-graphic.png

goes-12-318x300.jpg

Massachusetts_tmo_2005024.jpg

300px-Blizzard_of_2005.JPG

RIP Messenger, that was certainly his favorite winter lol and his predictions beat the model consensus all winter long.  I think the Pats have been going to every SB since he passed on?

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52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I suppose....but I think you're much to hung up on it....but just my opinion. It may be part of the entire picture, but its not the end all be all either.

People always seem to get hung up on one thing, but to be honest, I find all the ENSO-centric forecasts a bit played out too, ENSO is only a small part of the picture too unless it's strong and overwhelms the pattern.

We have had great winters in both el ninos and la ninas- and bad winters in both too.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hopefully Diane gets to witness this as happened 14 years ago this week. Our late friend Scott Messenger often referred to this as his white Hurricane. His elevated home on the ocean he claimed easily gusted over 100

nws-graphic.png

goes-12-318x300.jpg

Massachusetts_tmo_2005024.jpg

300px-Blizzard_of_2005.JPG

My sister has lived in plymouth almost 25 years...this storm annihilated them...i remember i called her on the landline since it was pre cellphone fb days...plymouth lost power for a fair amount of time and she and her husband and the kids (all teeny at the time, now 2 are in college) came to Medway to shower and warm up and eat real food.

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I agree with Tip that there is a subtle trend toward more redeveloping of that secondary a little further southeast along the frontal baroclinic zone...obviously we have to be careful this doesn't tilt too much and send it up the CT River....

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I realize this may offend the delicate sensibilities of those that annul that storm in a very high "undisputed" rank ... but, that storm had too many gaps to be a top 10. 

It's a top 10er in small areas of north and south short ... almost looks OES enhanced - but that's probably coincidence.  My memory of that system is that it was very highly meso-band dependent as to what got what and where... with gaps in between resulting more middling totals.  12-15" I say is middling ...risking knee-jerk vitriol from the bus stop crowd ... but, going back over the last 25 years, I think taking all top storms into consideration, is justly mid-grade outside those zones illustrated there.

Where it snowed 30" ...no argument... but bigger totals were not ubiquitous enough ... and again, owning to the banded nature of that event.  It's a good solid controversial system because hell cannot hold a candle to the fires of IMBY perspectives ... 

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4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

My sister has lived in plymouth almost 25 years...this storm annihilated them...i remember i called her on the landline since it was pre cellphone fb days...plymouth lost power for a fair amount of time and she and her husband and the kids (all teeny at the time, now 2 are in college) came to Medway to shower and warm up and eat real food.

Lol...I actually got a new cell right before it started snowing.  It was the latest in flip phone technology...lol.  My nearly 20 year old daughter was 5.  Loved that storm!  And we got whacked with a clipper a few days later. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize this may offend the delicate sensibilities of those that annul that storm in a very high "undisputed" rank ... but, that storm had too many gaps to be a top 10. 

It's a top 10er in small areas of north and south short ... almost looks OES enhanced - but that's probably coincidence.  My memory of that system is that it was very highly meso-band dependent as to what got what and where... with gaps in between resulting more middling totals.  12-15" I say is middling ...risking knee-jerk vitriol from the bus stop crowd ... but, going back over the last 25 years, I think taking all top storms into consideration, is justly mid-grade outside those zones illustrated there.

Where it snowed 30" ...no argument... but bigger totals were not ubiquitous enough ... and again, owning to the banded nature of that event.  It's a good solid controversial system because hell cannot hold a candle to the fires of IMBY perspectives ... 

You are 100% correct. Plymouth got around 3ft of paste and i lived in medway and got around a foot of dry powder...

This year getting a foot would be amazing!!! But i was so bummed during that storm

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