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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:02 PM, bristolri_wx said:

NOAA's seasonal forecasts in October and November predicted above normal temperatures for this Winter.  People hear what they want to hear.  I still think Ray's forecast was great despite not getting snow.  Most of what he's mentioned actually has occurred, and it was very educational regardless of the outcome.  Sometimes $h!t happens (or doesn't).

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I'm usually pretty objective with grading...never had any complaints, although that may be a function of no one caring.

If I nail the pattern, but miss badly on snowfall, then I will probably give it a like a C+. Its hard to argue that I missed the PNA potential when one of my most prominent analogs was 1969.

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  On 1/22/2019 at 4:03 PM, weathafella said:

1/1-10 had 9 above normal days and one below.  1/11-20 had 6 below normal days and 4 above.  1/21-30 will kick right off with 2 way below normal days.  That to me is a pretty significant change even if it hasn’t snowed in Plymouth.

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And if you read my posts you would know that i wasnt talking plymouth centric. Nothing has really changed with the storm track. Which is why i was asking if someone could tell me what changed. 

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It usually comes with talk of it feeling warm on his nape , and the inside of cars warming up without him turning the heat on

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And light fall rates melting on wind shields due to increasing solar irradiance, despite cloudy skies and subfreezing temps.

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:10 PM, #NoPoles said:

And if you read my posts you would know that i wasnt talking plymouth centric. Nothing has really changed with the storm track. Which is why i was asking if someone could tell me what changed. 

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It did, though. Most went from getting zero snowfall, to several inches. There is a difference between a cutter, and a track over the south coast with arctic air approaching.

 

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  On 1/22/2019 at 5:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Tip always does on Feb 10

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Right ...right because that is physically the end of the perennial solar nadir  ... which begins November 10 and ends on that Feb date... 

every year... 

A 6th grade complexity Earth -sun relationship facet that for some reason (gee I wonder why) doesn't seem to penetrate some individuals in this short-bus forum

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It did, though. Most went from getting zero snowfall, to several inches.

 

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Obviously we have only had one storm...yes the gradient pushed further south so that is a change...but the pattern before was also a gradient winter interspersed with cutters...so we are still sticking with the gradient pattern interspersed with cutters(going with the next storm on deck is a cutter)...so if the only change is that the gradient shifted further south...ok yes, it has for that one storm so far...but my perception is that it really wasnt that much of a change. 

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:14 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Right ...right because that is physically the end of the perennial solar nadir  ... which begins November 10 and ends on that Feb date... 

every year... 

A 6th grade complexity Earth -sun relationship facet that for some reason (gee I wonder why) doesn't seem to penetrate some individuals in this short-bus forum

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My house faces due south so my driveway is bathed in sun. Sitting in my car earlier soaking in full sun felt amazing

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:17 PM, #NoPoles said:

Obviously we have only had one storm...yes the gradient pushed further south so that is a change...but the pattern before was also a gradient winter interspersed with cutters...so we are still sticking with the gradient pattern interspersed with cutters(going with the next storm on deck is a cutter)...so if the only change is that the gradient shifted further south...ok yes, it has for that one storm so far...but my perception is that it really wasnt that much of a change. 

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Its not as large of a change as we want, agreed.

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:18 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow that’s impressive. Was it around the same for BDL? It was certainly one of the most impressive cold shots I’ve experienced.

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Yes sir....Bradley saw it's coldest High temp in almost 40 years yesterday(since 1981) at 4 above for the high temp.  Super impressive that's for sure.  This was colder than everything since 1981 at BDL.  

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:14 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Right ...right because that is physically the end of the perennial solar nadir  ... which begins November 10 and ends on that Feb date... 

every year... 

A 6th grade complexity Earth -sun relationship facet that for some reason (gee I wonder why) doesn't seem to penetrate some individuals in this short-bus forum

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Jesus, chill...its a joke.

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Judah hanging on for dear life:

"However the MJO is expected to trnasition to five and six over the next two weeks.  MJO phases 4-6 favors ridging over eastern North America with mild temperatures and troughing over western North America with cold temperatures.  It is not obvious to me that the MJO is influencing North American weather. "

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:20 PM, #NoPoles said:

My house faces due south so my driveway is bathed in sun. Sitting in my car earlier soaking in full sun felt amazing

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I like those too... those moments when your in a kind of "nook" that's cozy.  It's an autumn and spring phenomenon.    

Sometimes on that rare April day when April isn't being the more typical asshole,  I like those faux mild moments like that. 

Those moments that actually cause Keven pain ...  thank god!

But uh, we get that in October sometimes going the other way. An early chilly air mass in a calm wind over saffron leaf fall with still relative sun warmth has its splendor.  

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  On 1/22/2019 at 6:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a joke that happens because people want to vent their frustrations .. which is fake. 

It's a baggage -based joke - that's eye-rolling and I'm going to bite back. 

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No, it was just a joke on my end. Baggage? I'll leave that alone-

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