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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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2 hours ago, 8611Blizz said:

Fwiw ventrice and Cohen are pimping February hard. Article in the globe paints a winter wonderland image.

  If Judah is wrong will Harvey have him on again next November? ( he will )

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2019/01/16/the-polar-vortex-has-fractured-and-eastern-faces-punishing-winter/jrlhdAzeBKtcvY0d91gSOI/story.html

He won't be wrong.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t want anyone to take this the wrong way so let me first say the weeklies look good.  Cold straight through. All the reds and blues in the right spot. But...the anomalies are obviously less pronounced. I have to wonder if the euro guidance is being affected by the same variability now as the gfs. Last few runs with the extreme anomalies it was obvious that support has to be pretty close to full. Today’s run makes me wonder if there aren’t more divergence within the ensemble. 

Weatherfella from the MA forum.

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Excellent. Big PNA ridge and even NAO staying negative. I'm a little skeptical on the NAO until we actually get one but regardless, awesome PAC. 

Cold and snowy throughout the month and even into March, Will?

 

According to this, yes:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2019/01/16/the-polar-vortex-has-fractured-and-eastern-faces-punishing-winter/jrlhdAzeBKtcvY0d91gSOI/story.html

 

Saying the real cold and snow pattern should begin between Jan 25-30 and last between 4-8 weeks  even down to the South and what we are getting right now is just the appetizer.

 

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Opportunities next week given the cold air in place. GFS tracks a sfc low from MKE-YQB (minimal phasing) yet is mostly snow north of MA/NH line. Obviously very different setups, but last month it would have been 60˚. Then suppression depression, but should keep anything from melting.

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35 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

Lots of phasing potential on the 12z GFS, beginning next weekend.

Gradient is too much ....  fast flow is less conducive ... buy I appreciate the enthusiasm... 

I tell you what - if you took that orientation of curved lines and roomed maybe 1/4 of them, you'd get better wave harmonics

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Gradient is too much ....  fast flow is less conducive ... buy I appreciate the enthusiasm... 

I tell you what - if you took that orientation of curved lines and roomed maybe 1/4 of them, you'd get better wave harmonics

What’s your sense of what will happen from say Wednesday through Saturday next week have you looked at WPC? They seem to show a lot of QPF and most of it frozen for a good number of usWhat’s your sense of what will happen from say Wednesday through Saturday next week have you looked at WPC? They seem to show a lot of QPF and most of it frozen for a good number of us

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