January 2019 Discussion II

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I was really scratching my head why the GFS p-type progs are mainly rain vs snow.

Very little freezing rain and no sleet... makes no sense in this set up that there isn't a huge area of mixed precip.  This isn't a rain vs snow type thing with that low level cold. 

 

It's because it basically shows no CAD....which is obviously wrong.

Here's a quick look at the Euro vs GFS...GFS is on the left. Look at how rounded the isobars are. Now look at the Euro, you can clearly see the CAD on the isobars wedging in. Even the Euro is likely underdone, but at least it shows a hint unlike the GFS.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Unless this closes off at H7, I would sell on widespread amounts of greater than 12"...even where it remains all snow.

I remember we had an event in early Feb 2011 where the models were trying to sell that crap.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's because it basically shows no CAD....which is obviously wrong.

Here's a quick look at the Euro vs GFS...GFS is on the left. Look at how rounded the isobars are. Now look at the Euro, you can clearly see the CAD on the isobars wedging in. Even the Euro is likely underdone, but at least it shows a hint unlike the GFS.

 

 

 

Yeah no kidding lol. In reality  it’s a sharp boundary with maybe another  weak low on it.  

The interesting thing with this is that the antecedent airmass isn’t frigid. It’s cold, but the unusual thing with this is that the cold begins to press south as this approaches our longitude. So it will be interesting to see how this goes. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's because it basically shows no CAD....which is obviously wrong.

Here's a quick look at the Euro vs GFS...GFS is on the left. Look at how rounded the isobars are. Now look at the Euro, you can clearly see the CAD on the isobars wedging in. Even the Euro is likely underdone, but at least it shows a hint unlike the GFS.

Nice explaination and easily seen graphically.  It's just mind boggling that the GFS can't figure that out.  Once this gets into meso-model range those low level thermal gradients should be fascinating.  

Well good luck model hunting guys, I won't make the Euro tonight.  At least the rains to Canada cutter idea seems very unlikely now.  I'm still think any time the models are showing temps in the single digits in CNE with a storm rolling in from the SW, that the more likely play is the surface pressure tracks around the dense cold dome and not through it...so I'd still lean for something at least on the coast and not cutting across SNE.

[ajisai]

 MLK day deeply cold with snow otg.   We take.

Single. Digits.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's an even better depiction of the Euro vs the GFS....when the low is closer to SNE....GFS is again on the left and these are for the same time period. Notice how the low pressure is generally along the I-95 corridor in the mid-atlantic, but you see what happens as it approaches SNE....GFS is even quite a bit weaker with the low and yet it still struggles.

 

Look at how rounded the isobars are on the GFS into SNE. Now look at how the Euro pokes the lowest pressure out to the east over Cape Cod with the wedging clearly visible over SNE. That means zero chance of warming at the sfc....locked into arctic air. And again, even the Euro is likely a little underdone on the CAD in this type of setup.

 

 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Gfs has mid day temperatures near 10 Monday in the pike region to the coast.

Just watched Ryan’s forecast for us in CT...he doesn’t have any thing real cold in his forecast as of yet for Monday/next week???  Temps in the mid/upper 20’s, which isn’t overly cold for January.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's an even better depiction of the Euro vs the GFS....when the low is closer to SNE....GFS is again on the left and these are for the same time period. Notice how the low pressure is generally along the I-95 corridor in the mid-atlantic, but you see what happens as it approaches SNE.

 

Look at how rounded the isobars are on the GFS into SNE. Now look at how the Euro pokes the lowest pressure out to the east over Cape Cod with the wedging clearly visible over SNE. That means zero chance of warming at the sfc....locked into arctic air. And again, even the Euro is likely a little underdone on the CAD in this type of setup.

 

 

That’s the weak meso low. If that happens, that’s sucking the air from southern Maine into Logan. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s the weak meso low. If that happens, that’s sucking the air from southern Maine into Logan. 

Yep, BOS would prob not even crack out of the mid/upper 20s on that setup....prob go like from 15F to 28F back to 13F, lol.

[Greg]

Good trends so far tonight.  Let's see if the Euro will prove if the subtle trends are real or not.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie went way east.

 

 

[Syrmax]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he's def in a worse spot than Ray by a lot in this event....but I can easily see this pulling a '94 with that high position where it's no chance of warming the sfc past PYM or something. But who knows...there is def a chance we could get something a lot worse...esp for SE areas. Still 5-5.5 days out. This is barely even inside of clown range...that's how long we've been tracking it.

This does remind me a bit of 1994. Was a good dump for interior CT and north. I navigated I-91 in Hartford during it.  Storm was followed by “dangerous cold”...as per Brad Field at the time.  A coworker visiting from Sweden mocked us for weeks after we LOL’d.  It was the first time that I observed local media become completely embarrassing clown shows with weather events.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

This does remind me a bit of 1994. Was a good dump for interior CT and north. I navigated I-91 in Hartford during it.  Storm was followed by “dangerous cold”...as per Brad Field at the time.  A coworker visiting from Sweden mocked us for weeks after we LOL’d.  It was the first time that I observed local media become completely embarrassing clown shows with weather events.

Jan 3-4, 1994 and Jan 7-8, 1994 were both events that just got crunched by the PV confluence...in many other setups they would have been cutters. We haven't had a lot of events like that lately...a few years ago we did. 2/5/14 and even 2/2/15 were similar...though both were not nearly as strung out as this one is currently modeled.

[Syrmax]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 3-4, 1994 and Jan 7-8, 1994 were both events that just got crunched by the PV confluence...in many other setups they would have been cutters. We haven't had a lot of events like that lately...a few years ago we did. 2/5/14 and even 2/2/15 were similar...though both were not nearly as strung out as this one is currently modeled.

Good memory. I recall Jan 1994 being a strung out sort of 2 part event. Or maybe they were more distinct and separate but there was a discernible lag between hits.   I’ve seen too many snowstorms and lake effect blitzes now to remember fine details. Other than I was in the hell hole of SECT for March 1993 and Jan 1996.  And yeah, these type of lee side systems have been a bit lacking (for northeast US snow) in recent years. 

[ajisai]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unless this closes off at H7, I would sell on widespread amounts of greater than 12"...even where it remains all snow.

I remember we had an event in early Feb 2011 where the models were trying to sell that crap.

Groundhog Day storm?  I was close to 10" but I think you did a lot better than that?  Maybe I'm just jaded and memory fatigued though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Groundhog Day storm?  I was close to 10" but I think you did a lot better than that?  Maybe I'm just jaded and memory fatigued though.

We had one in Feb 2009, too.....models were trying to sell 1-2' in a SWFE....yea, right.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We had one in Feb 2009, too.....models were trying to sell 1-2' in a SWFE....yea, right.

Never gonna' happen' from a sensible wx perspective.  Not quite in your fraud 5 but a good rule is to cap a SWFE at 10" and that is usually only up towards Dendrite or Dryslot.  A solid SWFE for you and I is 6-8" with a light freezing drizzle to finish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

UkieU

[Greg]

Not bad on Crazy Uncle.

[Thunderblizzard]

Euro is coming in quite amped.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

Euro is coming in quite amped.

Way amped.

Flips me to sleet and rain after like 3-4".

Don't buy it...I'm sure scooter will give it a full prostate massage in the AM, but I'm selling that.

Typical over amplification of EURO in medium range. It will come back to earth.

70/30 comp with everything else gives us about what we have been expecting...6-12" for pike north, seal it with an icy kiss, then on to the promised land-

[Cmass495]

[BombsAway1288]

Kinda surprising about the Euro considering the UKIE went way east. Don’t they usually follow each other?

[SnoSki14]

Looks like the arctic shot is a given. Wasn't expecting Euro to be this awful though. 

[SnowGoose69]

59 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Kinda surprising about the Euro considering the UKIE went way east. Don’t they usually follow each other?

They haven’t agreed often this winter for whatever reason 

[SnowGoose69]

EPS seems lousy as well.  It may be ever so slightly further SE but it is not by much

[CoastalWx]

Great euro run.  

[ORH_wxman]

Man everything comes SE and then the euro actually goes NW. Wouldn't be the euro if it didn't do that though. Seems to go on its own sometimes. We hope it's wrong. 

[powderfreak]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man everything comes SE and then the euro actually goes NW. Wouldn't be the euro if it didn't do that though. Seems to go on its own sometimes. We hope it's wrong. 

2.5 posters hope its not though lol.

Hard sell on those amounts though.  This isn't a storm for 12-24".