Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 As others have noted ... the American -based indices are modestly impressive moving forward over the next two weeks... Both a 'mop-ended' AO and well-correlated NAO curve have means less than 0 SD ..particularly heading into week two. One thing I'm less sure about is whether the AO is being handled better(worse) than typical performance of the ensemble mean (GEFs). It is not abundantly clear whether the SSW over the last three weeks truly propagated into the tropopause sigma levels... a total evolution that is crucial in the AO modulation/correlation. We could have a negative AO from multiple different forcing mechanisms ...and it is not abundantly clear either, how those varying sources may - if by indirection - be entangled. For example ... late phase 7 through phase 2 MJO waves are correlated with -AO. However, that -AO could be defaulting, because the mid latitude cyclogensis regions are enhancing in mode during said MJO phases ... which lends to enhancing the easterly Hadely trades along the 55th parallel around the hemisphere - that makes the AO negative... But it may not be the same negative as that associated with blocking at high latitudes (necessarily)... Which, the latter is drawn up in the SSW --> -AO total model. If there's a causal link between those two methods - admittedly, ...I may not be aware... but the papers I read seem to re-enforce either but not as an integration. QBO is variant relative to both ...so that's a little murky. Either way, AO may be a wild-card as to how deeply descended the SD goes... The NAO may merely be concomitant do to their overlap... but, others have noted the EPS is looking more and more west based -NAO like ... Again, separating which is pulling which lower is troubling. Meanwhile, I still have no idea what the Pacific arc looks like... It should look AA ... but, seeing as the march through phase 8 was a labored battle, regardless of model sourcing, that suggests for me that the WPO and NP/EPO arc were at those times, not favorable to +PNAP over N/A... Seeing some coherent tenor changes to ward more +PNAP however, perhaps backs us into an assumption that those are improving, as -WPO( - (NP/EPO) ) and the AA phase out there very highly correlates to +PNAP ... So a bit sloppy ...admittedly. Governmental appropriations/shut-down is limiting some... I don't pay for EPS products ... I don't know what that organization's specific index numbers were or are heading... Having said all that... we are in a new pattern. The establishment of quadrature PV into SPV's ... is instructive. We'll see if it pays dividens to winter enthusiasts... but already as we all know there is a steady diet of entities/time periods of interest looking out through D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 We need a separate thread for this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:13 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: We need a separate thread for this system Expand We need a January Discussion III thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 To address Wolfie's final post in the old thread, I think people were noting how we don't always get lulls. This is a two parter, but we don't always get those Two seperate systems that could affect each other to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 @WinterWolf Fri system is not part and has nothing to do with Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Correct! Friday's storm is a seperate entity in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Don't worry. People are still laughing at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:13 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: We need a separate thread for this system Expand Go ahead and start one. Risky 6 days out imho but the support for some type of system seems strong. So maybe worth it. Could maybe include Friday's system in there too given it's not very significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:15 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: To address Wolfie's final post in the old thread, I think people were noting how we don't always get lulls. This is a two parter, but we don't always get those Two seperate systems that could affect each other to be sure Expand He was thinking like a waa then a lull before a ccb. The confusion is that Fri is it’s own shortwave which has been talked about a while back as a little clipper type appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: Go ahead and start one. Risky 6 days out imho but the support for some type of system seems strong. So maybe worth it. Could maybe include Friday's system in there too given it's not very significant. Expand A seperate thread could be made for the possible Friday mini system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Let us make haste to prepare for two inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Snow as you are, as of yore, as i want you to be , fire up the plows, and the gennys, keep the CF at bayyyy take your time, 6 days out , choice is yours ...don’t be rain, take a rest (from the models) picture snowy memories come doused in ML warmth, soaked In gulf moisture , avoid a big NW trend as weenies want you to be and I swear that I don’t have a bun no I don’t need a bun no I don’t need a bun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It seems to me that the signal is more sleet vs zr. Sleet shouldn’t cause much in the way of power issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:19 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: A seperate thread could be made for the possible Friday mini system... Expand Good for heating and cooling: https://www.ecomfort.com/cooling/ductless-mini-split-systems.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ICON trending stronger with the Friday low, especially vs 0z. Hopefully that’s a trend for all models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:18 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He was thinking like a waa then a lull before a ccb. The confusion is that Fri is it’s own shortwave which has been talked about a while back as a little clipper type appetizer. Expand MY comment and point originally was only that I did not buy into the snow idea all weekend form Friday to Sunday/monday. That was my point. Some were really hitting on the snow all weekend idea and thats what prompted my original comment. Sure sometimes it happens where it continually snows lightly or whatever, but it's very rare imo...and in my experiences. And I didn't buy into that idea at all...and it seems to be the case. Moving on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:25 PM, Sn0waddict said: ICON trending stronger with the Friday low, especially vs 0z. Hopefully that’s a trend for all models today. Expand NAM also looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Isn’t it great to have so much to track? We have an even started looking at was probably coming after the 23rd. I think Friday will try and stronger which will just serve to make Sunday better for more. But I think the real biggie comes after that maybe 7 to 10 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2-4" on the ICON for Friday..but close call for SEMA then cold comes in.. we snow.. brutal cold Sunday/Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:27 PM, WinterWolf said: MY comment and point originally was only that I did not buy into the snow idea all weekend form Friday to Sunday/monday. That was my point. Some were really hitting on the snow all weekend idea and thats what prompted my original comment. Sure sometimes it happens where it continually snows lightly or whatever, but it's very rare imo...and in my experiences. And I didn't buy into that idea at all...and it seems to be the case. Moving on... Expand Agreed... I don't expect much if any snow Saturday (even Friday is very tenuous) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:29 PM, Bostonseminole said: 2-4" on the ICON for Friday..but close call for SEMA then cold comes in.. we snow.. brutal cold Sunday/Monday.. Expand 0c 925 to LWM on 12z Friday . Don’t see 2-4” as modeled anywhere outside elevations and parts of VT/NH and more toward 2 there where do you see 2-4” , seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:27 PM, WinterWolf said: MY comment and point originally was only that I did not buy into the snow idea all weekend form Friday to Sunday/monday. That was my point. Some were really hitting on the snow all weekend idea and thats what prompted my original comment. Sure sometimes it happens where it continually snows lightly or whatever, but it's very rare imo...and in my experiences. And I didn't buy into that idea at all...and it seems to be the case. Moving on... Expand Dude, it’s ok. We will figure this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:33 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Agreed... I don't expect much if any snow Saturday (even Friday is very tenuous) Expand Snow breaks out again Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The reason I think Friday will trend stronger is because we see that so often. If this side of initial wave doesn’t quickly dissipate from the models they usually grow stronger. If this Was a series of three systems that I would put my money on the middle system, but as far as I know this is 2 waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:33 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: 0c 925 to LWM on 12z Friday . Don’t see 2-4” as modeled anywhere outside elevations and parts of VT/NH where do you see 2-4” Expand i don't have 925 temps but 850 and surface don't torch up to LWM.. it's a close call for sure, stronger system would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The 850's stay well off shore. This would be a quick hitting wet snow with maybe graupel/sleet on the very tail end of ICON as precip lets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Snow breaks out again Saturday evening Expand Maybe late in the evening/near midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 3:40 PM, Greg said: The 850's stay well off shore. This would be a quick hitting wet snow with sleet on tail end. ICON Expand I’m talking boundary level temps on Friday day for SNE. Away from elevations and central New England . Not 850’s of -1/-2 I see slushy coatings much more likely as of now for pike /95 area if it’s snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 No matter where pickles moves to, the 925 0C line finds him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 ICON is a snow thump then a changeover despite a great track and very vey cold surface temps. Take with a grain of salt but it’s nice to see that’s not an inland cutter. edit: changeover for SNE. Every else is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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