Severe potential for 1/18-1/20

[Tallis Rockwell]

..DISCUSSION...
   Amplification of an upper trough over the western CONUS will likely
   occur as it ejects eastward over the Plains on Day 5/Friday. Related
   surface low should deepen as it develops eastward from the central
   High Plains to the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. At least partially
   modified Gulf moisture appears likely to advance northward across
   parts of central/east TX, the lower MS Valley, and Southeast ahead
   of the surface low from Day 5/Friday into Day 6/Saturday.

   Latest medium-range model guidance is in somewhat better agreement
   on the eastward movement of the upper trough, although some
   timing/amplitude differences remain. The deterministic ECMWF shows a
   slightly deeper and slower upper trough progression over the
   southern Plains, which would potentially support a stronger
   southerly low-level jet and greater low-level moisture return across
   parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley Friday night into
   Saturday morning. Convection along/ahead of a cold front would
   probably pose at least some risk for severe weather if this scenario
   were to occur based on the forecast combination of instability and
   shear. However, the GFS and FV3-GFS continue to show a slightly less
   amplified upper trough and weaker surface low moving more quickly
   east-northeastward through Day 6/Saturday.

   Overall predictability still appears too uncertain to include a 15%
   severe area for Day 5/Friday, but one may be considered in future
   updates across some part of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley
   if model trends depicting a slower/deeper upper trough and greater
   low-level moisture continue. Some lingering severe threat could
   persist into Day 6/Saturday across portions of the Southeast. But,
   instability should become more limited with eastward extent, and
   differences in the placement of the upper trough quickly increase by
   next weekend. Once a surface cold front attendant to the previously
   mentioned low clears the East Coast and FL around Day 7/Sunday, the
   severe threat across the CONUS should be minimal through the end of
   the forecast period.

   ..Gleason.. 01/14/2019

The models continue to show a more favorable environment for an organized convection, the only question is how much instability is going to be available.

[CheeselandSkies]

Based on the latest Day 4-8, they're not expecting much out of this.

[nrgjeff]

Forced line and other junk could include severe. However it will not be anything worth chasing. Also could mature over poor terrain at night. If just forecasting sloppy severe, still possible. 

[Sydney Claridge]

16 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Forced line and other junk could include severe. However it will not be anything worth chasing. Also could mature over poor terrain at night. If just forecasting sloppy severe, still possible. 

Only marginal risk on Friday.  Perhaps a little bit of hail (especially in North Texas) but little surface-based instability as per SPC. 

I wasn't going in expecting anything either.