Newman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Warnings just issued, 5-11" 0.10 Ice We shall see. Yeah I'm kinda in a wait-and-see mode right now. Most models have trended significantly warmer for Berks County but I think we can eek out 4-6" on the initial thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Here's my temperature profile. Is this right? That's a long way off from 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Little of everything, except thunder! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Mount Holly upped our expected snowfall. IIR it was showing a mere inch for most of Chester Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 18z GFS/NAM data for NW Chester County is nowhere near as wintery/icy as my NWS point and click which sees no rain - all ice for my area....I am siding with WXSIM on this one....but still not good Rundown - Snow arrives by 2PM / Heavy Snow at 9pm with 6.5" on the ground / IP through 11pm with another 1" of IP - for total snow accumulation of 7.5" by 11pm - then ZR from 11pm till 2am with 0.75" of ZR and then another inch of rain before ending at 10am before temps plummet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I can see areas that get mostly rain drying up before the freeze really takes hold due to the strong winds forecast, but anyone who gets snow, sleet having real issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Flood Warnings > Winter Storm Warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Wow just watched local fox news. They are talking like a hugh winter storm is coming to our area. Outside of the poconos an maybe upper lehigh valley. This is a crap winter event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 GFS now tracks the low over Berks County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Like Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m not very happy with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, I Like Snow said: I’m not very happy with this. winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect here from 1 pm today until 1 pm Sunday afternoon for up to 2" of snow and a light glaze of ice. I am actually a bit surprised by the amount of time the advisory is in effect but not the advisory itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Ugh 33 dp30 as of 4:30, at this juncture I doubt this is as bad as previously thought, 3-5 down from 5-11 and temps rising to mid and upper 30’s overnight. Then crashing to the mid 20’s by afternoon Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I might not even start as snow anymore. Straight to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think Redsky’s winter of AZZ is the correct term, I guess we have Feb/March yet but it’s hard to look past the trends cold mild wet or cold and southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hmm. My sleet to rain call from yesterday looks to verify now. I’m getting pretty good at this! Lol. Currently I’m not under any advisories but suspect a flood one will come later. Should have few hours of wind to dry things up some before temps crash. Actually glad. This storm is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Only a few degrees away from the Wiggum Rule needing to go into effect...getting warmer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It is actually unreal that we've gone from near HECS to entirely rain with no snow in 7 days. This winter is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: It is actually unreal that we've gone from near HECS to entirely rain with no snow in 7 days. This winter is toast. We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 As soon as it started looking like freezing rain we should of all checked out. We don't get freezing rain like that here very often. It could of swing the other way I suppose but I'm not really surprised at any of this. Blame the people who yelled GREAT PATTERN two or three weeks ago. A great pattern doesn't include a decently positive NAO. Artic air, A negative NAO, and a solid Miller A on the models 10 days out would be grounds for excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 Latest Wxsim Forecast - with 6z data - very close to my NWS Point and Click which also has temps rising above freezing around midnight - will be watching those DPs today - kind of expect this to trend warmer with very little snow or ice chances.. Today: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the afternoon. High 35. Wind southeast around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Tonight: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, snow, and rain likely in the evening, then a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 32. Wind southeast around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 3 and 5 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Sunday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of rain, sleet, and snow in the afternoon. High 42, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind southwest around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 27 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. I think that the entire concept of using analogs is a somewhat flawed science now as many of the analogs are from years when the planet and more specifically the oceans was not as warm of a place as they are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z NAM now supports 50 degrees+ tomorrow morning in extreme SE PA. All of Eastern PA goes to rain up to NY/PA border this run. Still cant believe rgem is leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. Honestly it has been an average winter for this area so far - through today we have 10.2" of snow only 1.6" below normal. The upcoming pattern is very cold for the next month....as I always say give me the cold the storms will work out.....patience all on this forum will end up with a well above normal snow year....keep the faith!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Current temp up to 35 here, I think I can feel pretty confident in saying the chance of frozen here is very minimal. It wouldn't surprise me if the NWS dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'll keep the faith but it is a bit sad to go from expecting a snowpack enhancer before the rain that might allow some snow on the ground into next week, to a snowpack eraser, all of this since yesterday morning. But it has been nice having snow on the ground for a week now. We'll see what happens over the next week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We just gonna use the the winter obs page for this mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This trended so bad for us. Radar doesn't look very good for much snow. I'll be surprised if we reach the 3-5" the nws is predicting. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We arent even seeing any solid fantasy storms/digital snow much this year aside from a renegade blip here and there then those signals dissipate quickly. Really strange winter given all the hype by the media and other met outlets at the beginning of the season. I was never really sure what they were seeing tbh but I remained hopeful anyway. I think many of those calls weighed much too heavily on enso and modoki just painting it with a broad brush. Analogs are like snowflakes....similar but very different at the same time. Not nearly enough attention was given to the fact we are in a decadal +nao regime. That was always going to be the key to winter and without it we'd be relying on luck. It's why I didn't buy into winter of yore talk. I didn't think it'd be this bad though and that we'd finish below normal. Now barring a lucky break, I think it's much more likely than above normal. Seasonal trends cannot be denied and when the pattern change is indefinitely in day 10-15 it's just not coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Current temp up to 35 here, I think I can feel pretty confident in saying the chance of frozen here is very minimal. It wouldn't surprise me if the NWS dropped the Winter Weather Advisory for my area. 35 over here in the PA coal region as well. Much warmer than I'd hoped or expected, but cloud cover and high DP's kept the temperature up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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