USCG RS Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Forecast is going pretty much as expected. Primary low isn’t dead yet. Some cyclonic rotation is also present in E PA where the greatest pressure drops have been.Eh. I guess we all. Know I'm riding this down with my ship Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Would mean the r/s line should retreat south. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk so everyone should turn to snow soon and we get a MECS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 995mb low is still in E KY, winds indicate that secondary low is forming over E VA. Just started mixing with sleet here. what wil the track of the secondary be over eastern VA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Would mean the r/s line should retreat south. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk RS can you or someone else explain to us / me why the line would retreat south, I don't get it ? Thanks in adnvance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what wil the track of the secondary be over eastern VA ? Seems we have multiple lows, but there’s definitely going to be one in E PA soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: RS can you or someone else explain to us / me why the line would retreat south, I don't get it ? Thanks in adnvance Definitely won't, theres some misinformation going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: 1 inch! 7.5 on the year. Sleet mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Rain/Snow/Sleet Mix surprised to see frozen precip this long even though barely any of it accumulated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yep..sleet mixing in here within the last 2 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 R/S line sagging Southeast now, I’m in heavy sleet and some freezing rain. The ice is already glazing over my windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 U got inch too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: R/S line sagging Southeast now, I’m in heavy sleet and some freezing rain. The ice is already glazing over my windows. Maybe low in PA is Walts low on the warm front that delays the advance North as it moves East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: RS can you or someone else explain to us / me why the line would retreat south, I don't get it ? Thanks in adnvance I'm no expert, but if that new low in eastern va did become the primary and moved n/e toward the benchmark, we would remain on the cold side of the storm and our winds would go to n an n/easterly and the 850's would crash back south eastward and we would be in for a good snowstorm...but unfortunately that is not the case with this system...hope that makes sense to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Surface temps haven't really budged up anywhere, it's too bad the storm didn't start out colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Definitely won't, theres some misinformation going on.Sorry. Let me clarify as I quickly responded at work. What I meant is that if the LP in VA were to become the primary one, the surge of warm air would become muted. I have not looked at surface analysis and I was going of njwx85 because I trust his analysis. That being said, if the primary remains the primary this will not take place. Apologies, I should have had this caveat before Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: R/S line sagging Southeast now, I’m in heavy sleet and some freezing rain. The ice is already glazing over my windows. 21/19 here with 2"OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Flipped back to snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Spent the last several minutes watching the rain hit my railing and freeze on contact. 50/50 sleet and freezing rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Pretty clear the NAM in particular (ALL Models wayyyy too warm tonight at the sfc ~I80 north) was overzealous on moving the sfc low inside NYC on its 1/19 runs. Now the 00z/20 has much less se BL wind on the FOUS and here is where shallow cold air in the bottom part of the BL prevails. This I think is going to be dangerous for glaze between 2A-8A somewhere from near I80 interior NJ n to I84. The good thing ,when temps are sub 23F, the rain can freeze into ice pellets instead of be a glaze. Still, do not like the prospects for power in the area stated above at sunrise Sunday. Fingers crossed that most of the ZR runs off. Probably my last post of the night both here and the 3.5" on the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Temp continues to slowly drop here... Down to 21.9° Mod snow continues 3.5" otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Sleeting and raining in southern Westchester County right now. The sleet is falling quite heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Pretty clear the NAM in particular (ALL Models wayyyy too warm tonight at the sfc ~I80 north) was overzealous on moving the sfc low inside NYC on its 1/19 runs. Now the 00z/20 has much less se BL wind on the FOUS and here is where shallow cold air in the bottom part of the BL prevails. This I think is going to be dangerous for glaze between 2A-8A somewhere from near I80 interior NJ n to I84. The good thing ,when temps are sub 23F, the rain can freeze into ice pellets instead of be a glaze. Still, do not like the prospects for power in the area stated above at sunrise Sunday. Fingers crossed that most of the ZR runs off. Probably my last post of the night both here and the 3.5" on the obs thread. Wondering if we’ll see any ice storm warnings go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just confirmed already have a light glaze of ice. Currently 30 degrees with sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 HPN is reporting a mixture of light freezing rain and light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Nearing 5 inches OTG in Liberty NY 21.0 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Im down to 17 now. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 10 minutes ago, snywx said: Temp continues to slowly drop here... Down to 21.9° Mod snow continues 3.5" otg I was 30 when the snow started and bottomed out at 21.6 at about 11PM. It's 21.9 now which is the first rise, although only 0.3 degrees, in temp I've seen since the snow started. 3.3 inches and moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I was 30 when the snow started and bottomed out at 21.6 at about 11PM. It's 21.9 now which is the first rise, although only 0.3 degrees, in temp I've seen since the snow started. 3.3 inches and moderate to heavy snow. There is an insane temp gradient just south of you. Areas near Suffern are AOA 32° while areas near Tuxedo are in the low 20s. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wondering if we’ll see any ice storm warnings go up. Current Temp in New City = 33 degrees and it has just begun to mix with sleet here . NJ85 ,any chance I don't go higher than 33 here with those HRRR soundings ? I fear this might be the beginning of the feared ice storm that I dreaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Im down to 17 now. WTF? And some models have rain there by 5 am lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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