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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Think guidance temps including HRRR continue running too warm at the sfc tonight.  "If "a sfc wave forms on the warm front overnight, all bets off on temps rising above freezing Pike and Sussex Counties ne PA/nw NJ through much of se NYS before sunrise.  Current Cold air southward drainage/wet bulbing ALB southward looks to me to be a meso-microscale problem and now that we have snow down,  seems to mer precip conduction will be primary warmup toward sunrise to 32F here. Long ways to go to warm now.  Lets see if the models get back on track and warm it up.  I may not report observed weather on the obs thread again til dawn Sunday. 

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Just now, wdrag said:

Think guidance temps including HRRR continue running too warm at the sfc tonight.  "If "a sfc wave forms on the warm front overnight, all bets off on temps rising above freezing Pike and Sussex Counties ne PA/nw NJ through much of se NYS before sunrise.  Current Cold air southward drainage/wet bulbing ALB southward looks to me to be a meso-microscale problem and now that we have snow down,  seems to mer precip conduction will be primary warmup toward sunrise to 32F here. Long ways to go to warm now.  Lets see if the models get back on track and warm it up.  I may not report observed weather on the obs thread again til dawn Sunday. 

Yea i'm not buying the surface torch west of the hudson that the models are showing, temps are dropping a lot once you get well inland and usually these events stay mainly frozen NW NJ/SE NY West of the Hudson 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

North Shote of LI always seems to do better than the city in these scenarios

 

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

North Shote of LI always seems to do better than the city in these scenarios

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Here’s your line

 

3B2438EE-BF02-4DAF-9729-C654E40A05CD.jpeg

Pretty much the LIE is the divider. That’s a good depiction. Where is it from? 

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

North Shote of LI always seems to do better than the city in these scenarios

It's just a few miles, but north shore of LI is farther north than the park.  Ranges from same latitude as roughly the Bronx/Westchester line  in Nassau County to that of of Ossining as you go east out on the north fork.  That and being outside of the UHI.

Moderate snow, 32.9 (33) in Smithtown.  I think it was all snow from the start, unless I missed some drizzle which was how I had been expecting it to start.

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7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It seems to depend where, the models seemed to be very accurate for the coast/metro area but were too warm further inland. Not shocked.

I wasn’t as sure about the immediate coast, turns out the boundary setup right around the city itself.

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