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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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3 minutes ago, North and West said:


You want a prediction about the weather, I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life.


.

... and it’s gonna get dark earlyuntil it doesn’t. As always .....

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Final nail in the coffin for this storm for the 95 corridor. NWS downgraded snowfall accumulations even further with a Blutarsky-esque 0.0" of snow for the 95 corridor from Philly to almost NYC. The odd thing is it certainly looks like we might get up to an inch along the 95 corridor, just looking at the radar trends.  I know many of us joked about the Friday event being more than today/tomorrow - well it's looking like my 0.75" will likely be more.  All that tracking for this, wow.  Oh well.  Good luck to all of you in the advisory/warning areas - hope this overperforms for all of you.  

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40 minutes ago, North and West said:


Right, and this feels like one of those years from when I was a kid in the early 1990s. What can you do, you know?


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We in the NYC/Metro area have had a number of years in a row of above normal snow, and being the 'bullseye' of many a storm that those north and west lost out on. Eventually the odds would have to catch up and let them be the jackpot area. 

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33 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Wow, a memory I had forgotten all about.  Also in mid 50's and I did the same thing.  Bundled up and sat on the metal milk box waiting for the clouds to move in and the first flakes to fall.

Life was simpler...no internet, you had to rely on the evening news, Accuweather discussions at 35 min after the hour,  a Radio Shack weather cube and the power of observation to try and figure out what was happening.  I'll bet 75% of the people on this board don't know what a milk box was used for.

Thanks for the memory!

LOL. Used to know if the wind backed around from a certain direction in front of my house if it would stay snow or flip. Life was simple and I had a detachable radio shack red bike radio that attached to the handle and a little transistor weather radio where an actual meteorologist on KWO35 would update the loop at 11am, 5pm etc and I would anxiously listen to the same damn loop sometimes for a half hour until they updated

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3 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

LOL. Used to know if the wind backed around from a certain direction in front of my house if it would stay snow or flip. Life was simple and I had a detachable radio shack red bike radio that attached to the handle and a little transistor weather radio where an actual meteorologist on KWO35 would update the loop at 11am, 5pm etc and I would anxiously listen to the same damn loop sometimes for a half hour until they updated

I remember using WE6-1212. In those day you asked permission to use the phone. Naturally I waited till the coast was clear. Justice was eventually served when the bill came. As always...

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2 minutes ago, rclab said:

I remember using WE6-1212. In those day you asked permission to use the phone. Naturally I waited till the coast was clear. Justice was eventually served when the bill came. As always...

I'd be dead. LOL. My best memory was they had a short time where they took questions from listeners and answered them on the radio. I sent in a letter asking why lines of thunderstorms coming out of the Poconos often split in 2 crossing NJ only to consolidate again into 1 line over LI. A week later they said my name on the radio and answered my question. I felt special... 

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5 minutes ago, rclab said:

I remember using WE6-1212. In those day you asked permission to use the phone. Naturally I waited till the coast was clear. Justice was eventually served when the bill came. As always...

I used to do the exact same thing until my mother put a cylinder lock on the rotary phone dialer lol. 

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1 hour ago, West Mtn NY said:

I am going on 55 yrs old and I can not ever remember a storm with arctic, low dew air banked just to our NW, N and over NNE, where a storm angling up from the SW came across PA - NNJ and rode across LI. Until this shows me it can happen, I will continue to call BS. The NW side has been eroding slowly SE the past few hours instead of blossoming out like a storm with a northerly track would feature. I will gladly eat humble pie tomorrow if this does not correct South. Not being a weenie. Just going by what I have seen happen all my life since I sat on a metal milk box on my front stoop in Brooklyn in the 1970s watching cirrus and wind direction to predict the weather days in advance at the tender age of 10.

Do you want any toppings on that humble pie?

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52 minutes ago, Jersey Devil said:

You are both wrong.... the milkbox was for keeping the snakes that you caught that your mom wouldn't let you bring in the house...

LOL too funny.  I remember once I put an old screen over the box to "store" my collected grasshoppers.

Won't go off topic anymore but I'd forgotten about that memory as well.

Back in the day, that is what kids did.  Came home from school, changed into play clothes and went outside and did stuff.

In the summer you went out after dinner played with your friends and came home when the street lights came on.

Technology is a great thing but I'm glad I was a kid in the mid 60's - mid 70's....kids today miss out on alot.

Smart phones, ipads and play dates just are not the same.

Won't go off topic anymore....after much time and energy expended this week it feels like one of those busted events

from when I was a kid when a Winter Storm Warning would be downgraded to a Travelers Advisory....slammed a few weather radios up in my day.

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13 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

When it happens.. No excuses. Beauty of weather is its not over till fat lady sings. If most of Orange County wind up with Snow/Sleet rather than ZR, I win. If not.... I've seen something new. 

Did you see the latest HRRR radar predictions? I think the fat lady is warming up her voice.

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

First area of precip crossing the metro is rain.  I expect the Bronx and northern Manhattan prbosbly will be snow when they main batch arrives within the hour  

That was drizzle now the real precipitation is around Newark I’m 100% it’s snowing as I just spoke to a friend in Newark. City will snow now for at least 3hours.

90B58228-F479-46F9-89E8-8539D7BE6400.png

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2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Perhaps models finally catching onto the cold air.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

I'm out of it even with that map, but I gotta wonder, why the difficulty with this forecast? A few days back NWS stated for my area this would be mainly rain. Then some other guidance came in looking more frozen, but I was always on the fringe ( I usually am, whether it is to the north or south ).

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

First area of precip crossing the metro is rain.  I expect the Bronx and northern Manhattan prbosbly will be snow when they main batch arrives within the hour  

Here in Bx, drizzle has turned to mainly light wet snow with some rain mixed.  37.

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