Dan76 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS has been the best with this storm. It has been showing an inland track for days Many said otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS has been the best with this storm. It has been showing an inland track for days This is not going inland like the GFS depicts. It will ride ENE just South of the city, and out towards CC. Too close for a frozen event along the coast but Sussex and particularly Orange have no chance of this going to plain rain. Temps will not get out of the 20s with thr Northerly drain. There is a wall of below zero air to our North. To think that a low that's not close to being a bomb at our latitude will cut up into that wall of dense cold is just plain silly regardless of what any model says. There is nothing stopping it from sliding out off NJ and that is what it will do. If anything 12z models will tick a bit South as the cold will overperform to our North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: What a bust, looks like basically an all rain now for the city with highs around 50 tomorrow. Inland will see snow to maybe some ice to rain. All this tracking for this. The models have shown this for days. They have been surprisingly accurate (if this forecast holds) There was a poster in this thread questioning ABCs 47 and rain several days ago. It was always there...posters just didnt want to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 ^ VERBIAGE is unnecessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Do not think this was all for naught. A lot 'Copy & Paste' and scripting time saved--- for the 23/24 inaction, coming up. Lol. The only low resembling a snowstorm is near the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CIK62 said: Do not think this was all for naught. A lot 'Copy & Paste' and scripting time saved--- for the 23/24 inaction, coming up. Lol. The only low resembling a snowstorm is near the 30th. just 10 short days away!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 32 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: This is not going inland like the GFS depicts. It will ride ENE just South of the city, and out towards CC. Too close for a frozen event along the coast but Sussex and particularly Orange have no chance of this going to plain rain. Temps will not get out of the 20s with thr Northerly drain. There is a wall of below zero air to our North. To think that a low that's not close to being a bomb at our latitude will cut up into that wall of dense cold is just plain silly regardless of what any model says. There is nothing stopping it from sliding out off NJ and that is what it will do. If anything 12z models will tick a bit South as the cold will overperform to our North. Yes this is a typical 80s storm track, suppression alternating with coastal huggers and big cold in between lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yes this is a typical 80s storm track, suppression alternating with coastal huggers and big cold in between lol. Time to get out my 80s compilation CD. The "Heat is On" is my first track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Looks like 1-3 inches for NYC then rain with a little more for inland areas. Even NW of the city goes over to rain very quickly on all models now, there’s consensus. Up here, maybe 4 inches of snow if you’re lucky then a changeover. The NAM, RGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, UKMET, HRDPS, CMC, Euro, WRF-ARW and HRRR are now all remarkably similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Even NW of the city goes over to rain very quickly on all models now, there’s consensus. Up here, maybe 4 inches of snow if you’re lucky then a changeover. The NAM, RGEM, GFS, FV3, ICON, UKMET, HRDPS, CMC, Euro, WRF-ARW and HRRR are now all remarkably similar They're even getting depressed in New England (southern part anyway, even inland areas.) Cant blame them 80s nostalgia is only good for music lol. So it took to get to within 12 hours before the event for the models to reach consensus? Nice..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Time to get out my 80s compilation CD. The "Heat is On" is my first track.... Ha I posted this with reference to the 80s. a Billy Joel Classic https://www.billyjoel.com/song/keeping-faith-7/ ‘Cause the good ole days weren’t Always good And tomorrow ain’t as bad as it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, Doorman said: ^ VERBIAGE is unnecessary Note how the clusters are to the South of that black line. It will run South of it. Noise for the City, LI, S&W but more important for Sussex, Orange, Putnam and WCT in the Rt 84 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The new HRRR is really ugly, not like any of the other models are better, but it has a changeover to rain already in progress even up in Rockland and Sussex Counties by 18 hours after only 1-2 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Yeeesh, thank god I was insanely busy at work this week, didn't waste any day-time tracking for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new HRRR is really ugly, not like any of the other models are better, but it has a changeover to rain already in progress even up in Rockland and Sussex Counties by 18 hours after only 1-2 inches of snow Plain rain is Sussex by 6pm today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Plain rain is Sussex by 6pm today? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011912&fh=20 That’s hour 20, the changeover actually starts at 17 hours in Rockland and Sussex. Total snowfall: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019011912&fh=27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 it's still digging. with the vortex already charging in. i dont think any model had the low itself diving se into the gulf of mex. unless im seeing wrong the loop tells it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019011912&fh=20 That’s hour 20, the changeover actually starts at 17 hours in Rockland and Sussex. Total snowfall: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019011912&fh=27 HRRR still out of range at this time. Much much better within 6 hours of start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: it's still digging. with the vortex already charging in. i dont think any model had the low itself diving se into the gulf of mex. unless im seeing wrong the loop tells it all. This is important to monitor real time observations compared with model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: The models have shown this for days. They have been surprisingly accurate (if this forecast holds) There was a poster in this thread questioning ABCs 47 and rain several days ago. It was always there...posters just didnt want to see it. And others accused other posters of "throwing in the towel" too soon when they saw this as a likelihood a few days ago. Some people here need to stop wishcasting and if they do want to wishcast, go ahead and wishcast with some model or climatologic facts and move on ... without the editorial comments towards those who choose to go with what they feel is an accurate forecast (subject to change, of course) that might be light on snow. It's nice to be able to come here and just read and review the analysis from different people. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Guys wait for the 12z guidance before jumping off the roof. Things could easily shift back colder at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Guys wait for the 12z guidance before jumping off the roof. Things could easily shift back colder at the last minute. yeah i was just thinking about the same thing, as this still has the potential to surprise many on here,just saying..skies are already getting cloudy also so i doubt the temp rises much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snowfall excluding sleet NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Anything is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z NAM shifted Southeast a good 50 miles or so. Low passes just South of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You think we're jumping read the new England thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z NAM shifted Southeast a good 50 miles or so. Low passes just South of the city. That’s a good sign! I still think all temps on all models are very suspect just my 2 cents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: You think we're jumping read the new England thread This is why. Pathetic. 1 to 3 for all CT to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is why. Pathetic. 1 to 3 for all CT to Boston. I know. At least down here we expected mixing all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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