SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, friedmators said: Balmy on the RGEM at 12Z Sunday.. Very classic cutter profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Imagine if the warm GFS from 5 days ago verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I would use the 3k NAM for 2M temps. Historically it always does the best in CAD setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Balmy on the RGEM at 12Z Sunday.. what could happen is a front end thump of several inches then the warmer air surges in temps reach close to 50 for a few hours then the temps crash with a 30 degree drop in a few hours. Even though the temps warm up briefly its not enough time for 3 - 6 inches of snow to melt in a 3 - 4 hour period. The temp drop could be sudden - 30 degree drop in a couple of hours - so all the wet slush freezes solid quickly - so if you are thinking everything will washed away before the freeze - think again ……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If the low tracks under the city, I doubt the city touches 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 With the November storm did ANY model start to catch on late in the game ? If I remember correctly at this point none of them had it but MAYBE I AM MISTAKEN did any of them start to catch on as that storm was almost on our doorstep ? I only remember looking at the radar to our South to get an idea what was coming. Just wondering ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what could happen is a front end thump of several inches then the warmer air surges in temps reach close to 50 for a few hours then the temps crash with a 30 degree drop in a few hours. Even though the temps warm up briefly its not enough time for 3 - 6 inches of snow to melt in a 3 - 4 hour period. The temp drop could be sudden - 30 degree drop in a couple of hours - so all the wet slush freezes solid quickly - so if you are thinking everything will washed away before the freeze - think again ……. modeling has been slowing the colder air until later in the day-if there's a few hours in between when the precip shuts off, most roads would dry up somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richm20 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Get a propane generator Propane is a gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what could happen is a front end thump of several inches then the warmer air surges in temps reach close to 50 for a few hours then the temps crash with a 30 degree drop in a few hours. Even though the temps warm up briefly its not enough time for 3 - 6 inches of snow to melt in a 3 - 4 hour period. The temp drop could be sudden - 30 degree drop in a couple of hours - so all the wet slush freezes solid quickly - so if you are thinking everything will washed away before the freeze - think again ……. If it rains heavily with temps in the 40s or 50s then that snow would easily be gone in an hour or two. This is assuming that much snow even falls, I think even an inch is looking unlikely. Models are doing that classic hanging back of the cold until things clear out. Temps would crash well after the precip ends and pretty much everything would dry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: With the November storm did ANY model start to catch on late in the game ? If I remember correctly at this point none of them had it but MAYBE I AM MISTAKEN did any of them start to catch on as that storm was almost on our doorstep ? I only remember looking at the radar to our South to get an idea what was coming. Just wondering ? That setup was much more favorable because it was more of a SSW-NNE track of the system with the core of the high anchored more in Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If it rains heavily with temps in the 40s or 50s then that snow would easily be gone in an hour or two. This is assuming that much snow even falls, I think even an inch is looking unlikely. Models are doing that classic hanging back of the cold until things clear out. Temps would crash well after the precip ends and pretty much everything would dry up. Bingo. Even if it only got to 40, most roads would dry out during the day with a few hours of no rain etc....flash freezes are very rare...March 2005, Jan/Feb 94, there's just not that many in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Someone notify upton that their forecast is wrong, only 1” expected now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The odd thing about this storm is that the NAM usually agrees with Euro when CAD is in play. This may be the first the NAM was on its own like this. Its because its is not a classic SWFE. That northern stream interaction is getting played harder by the Euro while the NAM really does not want any part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Bingo. Even if it only got to 40, most roads would dry out during the day with a few hours of no rain etc....flash freezes are very rare...March 2005, Jan/Feb 94, there's just not that many in reality. March 2005 occurred while we were going from rain to snow so there was a good amount of slush that immediately froze. I think it continued snowing for a while into the evening as well. If it rains but doesn't warm up I think we'll have a lot melted snow and sleet that could refreeze quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The snow is going to come in like a wall and it's going to snow at 1-2" per hour for several hours before the warm air arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The odd thing about this storm is that the NAM usually agrees with Euro when CAD is in play. This may be the first the NAM was on its own like this. What are your thoughts regarding freezing rain potential on the north shore of LI into the city based upon the NAM surface projections during Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: The snow is going to come in like a wall and it's going to snow at 1-2" per hour for several hours before the warm air arrives. There are signals as I posted earlier that this may be a nasty front end push of snow. There are embedded shortwaves in the flow at 500 from 18-23z and some frontogenesis as you're showing. Despite this going worse as far as track we could be surprised on this in the 19-22z period. Usually in this setup the front end snow goes way north early and there is an area that does but there are also signals for a big push of snow across PA into N-C NJ and the metro as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It’s always the same folks that jump on the warm train.... not sure why after all this time you don’t understand which models are garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: There are signals as I posted earlier that this may be a nasty front end push of snow. There are embedded shortwaves in the flow at 500 from 18-23z and some frontogenesis as you're showing. Despite this going worse as far as track we could be surprised on this in the 19-22z period. Usually in this setup the front end snow goes way north early and there is an area that does but there are also signals for a big push of snow across PA into N-C NJ and the metro as well I see roughly a 21 hour period of strong warm air advection induced frontogenisis. I don't see how the city and even Long Island don't experience at least 3-6 hours of moderate snow on Saturday evening. I can make a case for the city making it into the upper 30's and I can also make a case for them maxing out around freezing. It's a tough call and a few degrees will make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hey guys, is it time for IMBY questions, because everything I'm seeing here runs the gamut and I'm exhausted. If it is, what's reasonable for MMU? At this point, I don't care either way, with the exception of being a crippling ice storm and subsequently no heat, hot water, or power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, richm20 said: Propane is a gas I never would have guessed....pretty clear the OP meant gasoline. For your edification most Americans colloquially refer to gasoline as gas....which is why my dual fuel generator is advertised as propane and gas.... so take that mister smarty pants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: I never would have guessed....pretty clear the OP meant gasoline. For your edification most Americans colloquially refer to gasoline as gas....which is why my dual fuel generator is advertised as propane and gas.... so take that mister smarty pants Wait... there are non-Americans on this forum? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There are signals as I posted earlier that this may be a nasty front end push of snow. There are embedded shortwaves in the flow at 500 from 18-23z and some frontogenesis as you're showing. Despite this going worse as far as track we could be surprised on this in the 19-22z period. Usually in this setup the front end snow goes way north early and there is an area that does but there are also signals for a big push of snow across PA into N-C NJ and the metro as well Agreed, and more empirically, SWFEs (even unconventional ones) tend to start more aggressively than anticipated, regardless of what happens after the initial push. So the first few hours should be impressive at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, North and West said: Hey guys, is it time for IMBY questions, because everything I'm seeing here runs the gamut and I'm exhausted. If it is, what's reasonable for MMU? At this point, I don't care either way, with the exception of being a crippling ice storm and subsequently no heat, hot water, or power. 6-8" of snow and sleet and 0.25-0.50" of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: 6-8" of snow and sleet and 0.25-0.50" of freezing rain. Thanks. Obviously, I hope for less freezing rain than that, but I'll be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, North and West said: Thanks. Obviously, I hope for less freezing rain than that, but I'll be prepared. You could easily see double that much ice if the NAM soundings come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: You could easily see double that much ice if the NAM soundings come close to verifying. Well, that would be awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This is why the GFS thermal profiles are garbage. Why would it be 36 degrees at the surface and only +1C at 850mb? The warm air is coming aloft, not at the surface, at least not initially. The cold, dry air will be stubborn to retreat which is why you get the WAA precip to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Also notice how even on the GFS you can see the sagging of the isobars down into NE PA and Northern NJ. That's a CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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