Brasiluvsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: That had it at 8 to 12 most of the day. But they recently cut back Just now, NycStormChaser said: That had it at 8 to 12 most of the day. But they recently cut back Chaser I don't know about that as I did not see it earlier today ( and I had looked) and if anything , earlier today I would think they would have lesser amounts ( due to guidance at that time ) but I could be wrong,,, there was no snow map yet as far as I saw and what I am talking about was posted by the NWS as of 7 pm,,,this is why I asked the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM clown map shows a foot in the city, but probably half is sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: NAM clown map shows a foot in the city, but probably half is sleet Yes the snowmap on Pivotalweather shows only about 3 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM shows more of a sleet than freezing rain threat for the area. FWIW the 3 km still has precip going strong at 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, RU848789 said: According to the NWS AFD the other day, tonight's 0Z is the first suite where we'll have the southern stream low fully ashore and well-sampled, meaning we should have more accurate, fuller initial conditions to feed into the models, so if there's a time when we might see a modest to significant shift (in either direction) 0Z would be it. One can hope. I believe we've been NAM-ed in general, and especially for the I-95 corridor, the most important location on the planet, lol. Although keep in mind that a fair amount of that "snow" on TT is sleet, but I'll take sleet over ZR or rain any day...also, a lot of ZR on this run. Really need to show all 3 maps to get the full picture: 4-6" of snow, then 8-10" of sleet being counted as 10:1 snow, i.e., 1" of LE as sleet, which is 2-3" of sleet, then 1/2-1" of ZR, which would be absorbed by the 1.2-1.6" of frozen LE as snow/sleet, meaning the slushpack would contain about 2-2.5" LE, which would flash freeze and be around for a long time. Wow. Of course, this is just one model run and not a forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: NAM shows more of a sleet than freezing rain threat for the area. That would be better for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3K NAM is much more realistic on timing. Puking sleet and ice still at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That would be better for all Its showing .87 of ZR for NYC lol not that I'm buying that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Its showing .87 of ZR for NYC lol not that I'm buying that In this era of wild weather nothing can be discounted. I'm a little worried about this storm TBH. It has the potential to be a disappointing storm in terms of snow and real pain in the neck in terms of ice. My daughter will be traveling by bus from DC Sat night. I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ICON keeps NYC all frozen. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: ICON keeps NYC all frozen. FWIW I guess all we needed was all data to be fully sampled to start to get the full picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: I guess all we needed was all data to be fully sampled to start to get the full picture. It's just two models and not the two most reliable given the range. I would wait for the rest of the 0Z suite before determining theres been a major shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: It's just two models and not the two most reliable given the range. I would wait for the rest of the 0Z suite before determining theres been a major shift Given the range ? The storm starts Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: ICON keeps NYC all frozen. FWIW It flips to ice by 06z just like the rest of the guidance. It’s also warmer than the NAM at the surface by 5-10 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It's just two models and not the two most reliable given the range. I would wait for the rest of the 0Z suite before determining theres been a major shift Let's see if the Ukie holds and shifts further south. I believe it will. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 ICON takes the low offshore near Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Given the range ? The storm starts Saturday lol I mean it's still medium range for the NAM, not yet it's ideal range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It's just two models and not the two most reliable given the range. I would wait for the rest of the 0Z suite before determining theres been a major shift I agree just stating the facts that we currently have with the start of the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It flips to ice by 06z just like the rest of the guidance. It’s also warmer than the NAM at the surface by 5-10 degrees. So then NYC is not all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m generally not a fan of forecasting big time sleet with these events. It does occasionally occur like it did on 1/7/94 for most of the day or 2/13/07 but in general you end up more snowy or FZRA/RA. This is more of a classic SWFE than January 94 or February 07 so I’m siding more with this not being as “sleety” as it may look on some models now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: So then NYC is not all frozen I posted too early. It’s not all frozen you’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The RGEM appears south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM appears south too Has 2-4” on the ground already by 00z here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: ICON takes the low offshore near Cape May. Some gefs also did that 12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: So then NYC is not all frozen Temps below freezing for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM appears south too Has a mix to start for the city with more snow inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RGEM has the snow just north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The trend is real. We can still get another 30-40 miles south and get 8 inches of snow and sleet. Maybe NOAA is right about the winter storm watch after all. Let’s see what gfs shows. It needs to show a colder solution otherwise it’s a red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs is south through 0z sunday, not really colder though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS temp gradient is wild, Almost 50 on LI but not far NW of the city is below freezing. Overall this run looks colder in some places and warmer in others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS is coming in futher south, starts off cold but warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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