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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Nice map, though as a ct coast native my entire life I cant wrap my head around how SW ct would be raining while northern Long Island would still be a wintery mix.

It's just the immediate Ct coast. The North shore of Long Island tends to hand on a little longer because they are a bit more protected from the ocean.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's just the immediate Ct coast. The North shore of Long Island tends to hand on a little longer because they are a bit more protected from the ocean.

I’ve definitely seen them hang on longer than the south shore of Long Island, multiple storms where north Long Island is snowing and Long Beach is raining and near 40, but never seen coastal ct switch while north Long Island is still holding on.  Just being picky though the map is reasonable.

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5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I won't argue with you because you know waaaay more than me---I just hope you are wrong!

 

I see this as being all rain on Long Island---a throwback storm if you will.

I've been told many times it would snow, only to rain.  Despite the best set ups, snow was tough to get---throwback

 

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

I’ve definitely seen them hang on longer than the south shore of Long Island, multiple storms where north Long Island is snowing and Long Beach is raining and near 40, but never seen coastal ct switch while north Long Island is still holding on.  Just being picky though the map is reasonable.

This is just my preliminary thinking based on past history in these setups and current model trends. I will tweak it tomorrow if needed. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

 

This is just my preliminary thinking based on past history in these setups and current model trends. I will tweak it tomorrow if needed. 

Would it be safe to say that you are expecting a significant front end thump of snow if there is rain/sleet to follow for a fairly long period of time?

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16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's just the immediate Ct coast. The North shore of Long Island tends to hand on a little longer because they are a bit more protected from the ocean.

not sure I've ever seen the north shore of LI as a mix while I am raining but I agree with your map in general.

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

This is just my preliminary thinking based on past history in these setups and current model trends. I will tweak it tomorrow if needed. 

Agree, I would wait till the 12z runs tomorrow for tweaking, that  would get a real good sampling of the position and strength of the high and the system currently on the west coast. Nice map, past history is always a factor especially with the CAD.

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12 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Would it be safe to say that you are expecting a significant front end thump of snow if there is rain/sleet to follow for a fairly long period of time?

Typically precip on SWFE arrives sooner than predicted. The surge is really well modeled so yes I am predicting it to come in like a wall.

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2/13/2014
That's because the LP was just E of you and therefore you were on the backside and mid levels had cooled. S CT was still having warm air flooded in mid levels as it was just North of the LP.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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29 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

I’ve definitely seen them hang on longer than the south shore of Long Island, multiple storms where north Long Island is snowing and Long Beach is raining and near 40, but never seen coastal ct switch while north Long Island is still holding on.  Just being picky though the map is reasonable.

Correct. I do not think that has ever happened. 

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

That's because the LP was just E of you and therefore you were on the backside and mid levels had cooled. S CT was still having warm air flooded in mid levels as it was just North of the LP.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

We were zr while Orange County had plain rain.  A couple of the guys up there thought I was lying.  Never made it to freezing in a bubble several miles wide around here.  Great storm :)  I presume southern CT went to plain rain that afternoon, but we did not.

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8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Correct. I do not think that has ever happened. 

It's unusual, but has happened.  I interpreted YF's forecast as being simply more snow here, not as a slower changeover.  That happens a lot more often than a situation with  frozen here while plain rain on the opposite side of the Sound.

Not defending the forecast...that's not my intent.

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1 minute ago, swataz said:

I am sure there is no consensus on this yet, but has this storm's start time been moving steadily earlier? The WSW has a initiation of 12 p.m., but I wouldn't expect snow that early on LI. Are we looking at 3 p.m. or so now or am I reading things wrong?

The nam has the arrival time between 5 and 7pm west to east

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I am sure there is no consensus on this yet, but has this storm's start time been moving steadily earlier? The WSW has a initiation of 12 p.m., but I wouldn't expect snow that early on LI. Are we looking at 3 p.m. or so now or am I reading things wrong?
It has been transitioning earlier. Also the NWS likes to issue warnings with a good lead time.

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