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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Ant, please. Not every snowstorm will trend in the snow lovers favor. Wishcasting won't change anything. 

No one is wishcasting

I don't get how people don't see some accumulating snow to start with the low dew points and cold surface temps ?

Models aren't good with cad signatures. I said the same thing in the past about cad.

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I don't understand a lot of the science but I do understand that I can't live and die with each model run. That said if this system in reality is more West it will most likely be rain and warm for many but its not hard to understand that IF it in reality ,the system is more South n East this could really surprise a lot of people. Again its not even over land just yet and IMO theres still time for changes in model runs and what will actually happen, either way. People forgot November fast huh ?

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

I don't understand a lot of the science but I do understand that I can't live and die with each model run. That said if this system in reality is more West it will most likely be rain and warm for many but its not hard to understand that IF it in reality ,the system is more South n East this could really surprise a lot of people. Again its not even over land just yet and IMO theres still time for changes in model runs and what will actually happen, either way. People forgot November fast huh ?

By this time though the models are fairly locked in and I wouldn't expected significant changes and unfortunately usally if there are major changes this close to a storm it's a NW trend rather than SE, thats why we do so well with coastals. I do agree in terms of the specifics of each model run we need to stop living and dying which each run and realize the overall picture which is a snow to wintry mix to rain event but the specifics are still not decided.

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4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

By this time though the models are fairly locked in and I wouldn't expected significant changes and unfortunately usally if there are major changes this close to a storm it's a NW trend rather than SE, thats why we do so well with coastals. I do agree in terms of the specifics of each model run we need to stop living and dying which each run and realize the overall picture which is a snow to wintry mix to rain event but the specifics are still not decided.

What’s your scientific reason for the models to trend northwest now

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About that 12Z NAM, which has been discussed a lot.  Here's a fuller picture.  The 12Z NAM, as modeled (not a forecast!) for areas along and NW of the TPK from Trenton to NYC metro is 1-3" of snow (as per Pivotal which doesn't count sleet), then 10" worth of sleet counted as 10:1 snow, as per Tropical Tidbits, or, more accurately about 2-3" of sleet (I usually use 3:1 for sleet, although you'll see it from 2-3:1 - my experience measuring has been closer to 3:1). So depth would be 3-6", but it would contain about 1.25" liquid equivalent as frozen, which is substantial and would absorb quite a bit of ZR (looks like close to 1/2" for much of 95 and 3/4-1" N of 78) or plain rain without melting much, especially if temps are close to 32F. I do wish these services would include maps for snow, sleet and ZR.  And if we have a slush pack with 2" of LE in it at the end of the storm (likely from the NAM), it'll flash freeze solid later on Sunday and be around for weeks.  

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Well given the storm track the fact that we are even in the discussion for frozen precip indicates there is some cold air in place. 

My point was, its stale air and will likely be scoured away pretty easily - especially from the city south and east. On the South Shore of LI I am expecting little to nothing in the way of accumulating snow or ZR....

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8 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

About that 12Z NAM, which has been discussed a lot.  Here's a fuller picture.  The 12Z NAM, as modeled (not a forecast!) for areas along and NW of the TPK from Trenton to NYC metro is 1-3" of snow (as per Pivotal which doesn't count sleet), then 10" worth of sleet counted as 10:1 snow, as per Tropical Tidbits, or, more accurately about 2-3" of sleet (I usually use 3:1 for sleet, although you'll see it from 2-3:1 - my experience measuring has been closer to 3:1). So depth would be 3-6", but it would contain about 1.25" liquid equivalent as frozen, which is substantial and would absorb quite a bit of ZR (looks like close to 1/2" for much of 95 and 3/4-1" N of 78) or plain rain without melting much, especially if temps are close to 32F. I do wish these services would include maps for snow, sleet and ZR.  And if we have a slush pack with 2" of LE in it at the end of the storm (likely from the NAM), it'll flash freeze solid later on Sunday and be around for weeks.  

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This is a really helpful breakdown and possibly scary if it comes to fruition. I would say I wouldn't use 10:1 ratios to determine snowfall amounts because the ratios will be much higher than that in the interior and probably lower than that at the coast.

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1 minute ago, weatherlogix said:

My point was, its stale air and will likely be scoured away pretty easily - especially from the city south and east. On the South Shore of LI I am expecting little to nothing in the way of accumulating snow or ZR....

Yea it's not like the coast is starting in the mid 20s, it's a marginally coldair mass. Normally it would get scoured quickly but with the PV influence if the winds stay NE it could be interesting.  Of course south shore of LI yea I wouldn't expect much but from the city on NW the ZR threat can't be completely written off 

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14 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

About that 12Z NAM, which has been discussed a lot.  Here's a fuller picture.  The 12Z NAM, as modeled (not a forecast!) for areas along and NW of the TPK from Trenton to NYC metro is 1-3" of snow (as per Pivotal which doesn't count sleet), then 10" worth of sleet counted as 10:1 snow, as per Tropical Tidbits, or, more accurately about 2-3" of sleet (I usually use 3:1 for sleet, although you'll see it from 2-3:1 - my experience measuring has been closer to 3:1). So depth would be 3-6", but it would contain about 1.25" liquid equivalent as frozen, which is substantial and would absorb quite a bit of ZR (looks like close to 1/2" for much of 95 and 3/4-1" N of 78) or plain rain without melting much, especially if temps are close to 32F. I do wish these services would include maps for snow, sleet and ZR.  And if we have a slush pack with 2" of LE in it at the end of the storm (likely from the NAM), it'll flash freeze solid later on Sunday and be around for weeks.  

 

 

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If that is the outcome, I-95 is going to be a wreckfest.

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

This is a really helpful breakdown and possibly scary if it comes to fruition. I would say I wouldn't use 10:1 ratios to determine snowfall amounts because the ratios will be much higher than that in the interior and probably lower than that at the coast.

.94 ice is right over my house, Morris County, NJ.  Need to put oil in my brand new generator and get it ready Friday just in case.

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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I'm in HV a little north of Poughkeepsie. I have a question concerning above Nam maps. 1st Snow/sleet map gives me a foot, then next Kuchera map gives me 2.9 inches but I get zero accumulated freezing rain. What science goes into Kuchera map? Anybody know?

Probably an all out sleet storm up there on the NAM which is why no freezing rain and little snow. However snow totals probably should be higher as it'll be higher than 10:1 up there. Also two different NAM models snow totals were posted 

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