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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Front end thump hopefully gives the majority of us at least several inches before Uncle Warm takes over.  Even up here in Dutchess County, I am expecting more ice than snow which sucks.  We are getting to the crucial window for guidance now so all model solutions have now a lot more weight.  Don't like the warming trends. 

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Just now, pstar3182 said:

Lot of members trying to will frozen precip, ignoring guidance. 

Guidance is just that. It’s not a forecast you have to always make your forecast based on experience. I think this is 3-6 inch thump followed by sleet and heavy rain maybe ending as some snow flakes

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Front end thump hopefully gives the majority of us at least several inches before Uncle Warm takes over.  Even up here in Dutchess County, I am expecting more ice than snow which sucks.  We are getting to the crucial window for guidance now so all model solutions have now a lot more weight.  Don't like the warming trends. 

I think we are going to get at least 6 inches before and changeover to sleet and FR. Just a tick further south and we could get a foot. Nothing set in stone yet. 

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No one should be expecting a blizzard for the coast but some accumulating snow isn't out of the question

 We have tonight and tomorrow to see how the surface temps are.

Yea I think at this point it's less a question of overall storm development and more a question of surface temps/front end dump. In the November storm the models way overestimated the surface temps which led to much more accumulation at the coast than expected. This setup doesn't look as favorable with a west to east system but I wouldn't be surprised if places especially away from the immediate coast get thumped more than expected. Think the icing threat becoming less and less likely for the coast and more an I287 on northwest threat which is usually the case.   

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