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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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31 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches

I disagree about the only light showers part, this storm is intense and has a lot of warm moisture with it, it will pour and pour a lot the question is will the pouring freeze on the surface or not

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14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I disagree about the only light showers part, this storm is intense and has a lot of warm moisture with it, it will pour and pour a lot the question is will the pouring freeze on the surface or not

It’s sleet. And freezing rain no rain like icon just depicted.

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3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

According to GFS, city should be changing over to snow around 1 PM Sunday and end by 6 PM as the storm pulls away.

Thats not actually what it's showing, we have to remember precip panels are for the previous 6 hours the city changes over around hour 78 but theres barely any qpf that falls after that.

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Ignore the temperatures on the GFS and the Canadian. Follow the Euro and then blend in the NAM once within 48 hours.
Anyway, major positive changes regarding the track of the surface low. This opens the door for backside snows.
9eh0MCW.gif&key=a77d53535da71b094d09320866bc4dd456e9627c7ce7e61d2116167e78efe2b3
Also. The Euro and NAM have both shifted significantly South the last two runs for the storm affecting the area tonight. There's nothing to say this won't happen with the storm Sunday.

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Just now, USCG RS said:

Also. The Euro and NAM have both shifted significantly South the last two runs for the storm affecting the area tonight. There's nothing to say this won't happen with the storm Sunday.

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Yesterday models shifted South and then last night and this morning some came back North a bit. This is nothing more than your typical windshield wiper effect and a lot of people on here should take a break and come back tomorrow night.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

If the CMC/GFS are right the icing threat is mostly non existent, it's basically snow to rain from SE to NW for everyone.  It is quite the model battle now between CMC/GFS vs Euro/Ukmet/NAM

Clearly I would pick the better models. euro and ukmet are just better models and nam could be erratic and but it has improved somewhat and it doesn’t show those crazy qpf depiction like it used to.

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Yesterday models shifted South and then last night and this morning some came back North a bit. This is nothing more than your typical windshield wiper effect and a lot of people on here should take a break and come back tomorrow night.
But we won't

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