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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow).  Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms.  

Thanks

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5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow).  Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms.  

 

NAMNE_prec_kuchsnow_084.png

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I would use extreme caution with the NAM, it's still flopping around wildly at H5

tp5x4Ff.gif&key=0d2337fc73011c5dfc06cf140e01de9330a5bdde5274f00ee8b55b1d5860f41d

Yes. And not making synoptic sense always. I have not dissected this run yet, but last night it had the Vort max in Texas jump from W to E instead of rounding the base of the trough. I'll look later.. But as you said, from initial looks it's jumping at h5 a good bit

 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Verbatim it's more like less than an inch for most of the city, the 2 inch line is at the Bronx/Westchester border. 

This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches

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17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow).  Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms.  

I wouldn't discount any of those accumulation map forecasts that are showing larger accumulations - it didn't work for the November storm when many folks were cutting the numbers saying they weren't possible - really surprised Upton is forecasting such low totals - think they would have learned their lesson already after the November fiasco.

SATURDAY  
PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
SNOW. SLEET, RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE  
LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
   
SUNDAY
 
FREEZING RAIN. RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SLEET AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION
. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
90 PERCENT.
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE  
EVENING, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS  
AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS  
LOW AS 10 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.  

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This isnt the nyc and south forum. If this storm is nothing for you...take a break and let those who can possibly be affected by a pretty serious storm discuss it without the bs. If you need help with the break, PM myself or @Rjay and we’ll be happy to help. Last discussion on this matter. 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

ICON is missleading as it only shows snow and rain. No ice depiction so some of that snow could be ice.

It's not misleading at all. It just doesn't offer that as an option. It doesn't take much effort to look at 2m temps and see that it's showing rain where it's ice in reality. 

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21 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches

sort of what like happened during the November storm in many areas - if there is an analog storm it MIGHT be this one BUT that all depends if there is an extended period of freezing rain in some locations and also if a dry slot develops for some areas - all of which is impossible to determine this far out . Also IMO this storm might require significant adjustments in snow total forecasts during the event in some areas to be determined later.

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If the surface low tracks a bit Southeast and ends up passing off the SNJ coast and towards the benchmark like some guidance showed yesterday that would keep the dry slot mostly offshore and would provide an opportunity for snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the storm pulls away and cold air wraps back in.

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