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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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22 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Just saw the EURO ensembles... wow love the south leaning guidance. Definitely more SE plots so that would argue that the EURO at 6z was too warm.

Probably “seeing” the storm/energy ejecting farther south in the mid-section of the country then earlier model runs. Thus, it stays a bit farther south as it comes east.

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1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

This could be the kind of situation where areas along the south shore of NYC (JFK, southern Brooklyn, Rockaway, Staten Island) change to rain and have temps 33-35 while upper Manhattan and Bronx have freezing rain/sleet with temps 28-32. 

Pretty much what I'm expecting unless there are major changes in the modeling today.

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Be careful with automatically cutting snowmap snow totals just do to sleet. 

1. Like November models tend to under do front end dumps. Almost every SWFE ends up under modeled. So that should lessen how much you cut from a snowmap.

2. The 1st hour or 2 of mixing it WILL still accumulate, obviously though less than 10 to 1.

So if a snowmap states say 5. Do not automatically cut 3. I would go 4 of sleet snow mix.

I REALLY hope we avoid a major ice storm. Last March a tree fell on my house due to a 10 in her in early March. No more havoc pls.

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IMBY Question, as I'm trying to catch up on everything from last night: What's this looking like for MMU? I lost power for six days total last March, and would not enjoy that again; the house will get terribly cold when it's zero outside. Plus, tree damage from freezing rain would be horrendous after the March 7th devastation here (20"+ wet snow).

Thanks, as always!

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35 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

This could be the kind of situation where areas along the south shore of NYC (JFK, southern Brooklyn, Rockaway, Staten Island) change to rain and have temps 33-35 while upper Manhattan and Bronx have freezing rain/sleet with temps 28-32. 

How much for Manhattan Valley.

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Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

In the teens and freezing rain at 7AM Sunday in the HV? Shoot me now if that's really going to happen.

It could be a lot of sleet, don't really know without soundings which I don't have, but the setup is about the ugliest I've ever seen locally. 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR 

 

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR 

 

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR 

 

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Northern NYC on NW is all frozen on the NAM. I think the NW Suburbs could get a crushing icestorm. For Bronx, upper Manhattan, Lower Westchester this could be very on the fencxe between nuisance icing and damaging icing if the NAM surface temp depiction is accurate and I usually trust the NAM most with surface temps

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

More qpf than 6z. I know the map includes sleet but wonder if it includes ZR 

The Tidbits maps include sleet as 10-1 snow and since a lot of that is sleet (can tell by difference between their maps and Pivotals, which show very little snow, since they don't include sleet), 10" is more like 4" of snow and 2" of sleet (equivalent to 6" of 10-1 snow).  Neither service includes ZR in their snowfall algorithms.  

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