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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Just now, USCG RS said:

Even at its closest pass (straddling the south shore of LI) it keeps most of LI around 33-35 degrees. That's a big signal imo.

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It's actually above freezing almost the whole time lol

ecmwf_t2m_nyc_14.png

ecmwf_t2m_nyc_15.png

ecmwf_t2m_nyc_15 (1).png

ecmwf_t2m_nyc_16.png

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4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Even at its closest pass (straddling the south shore of LI) it keeps most of LI around 33-35 degrees. That's a big signal imo.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

I did not expect we'd be above freezing almost the while time on that rum 

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It's actually above freezing almost the whole time lol
ecmwf_t2m_nyc_14.thumb.png.6aad7838b7e2cc545344b18b4dcc9f39.png
ecmwf_t2m_nyc_15.thumb.png.313aff3f249ca28b5fabd63ec5116a63.png
511959321_ecmwf_t2m_nyc_15(1).thumb.png.3766ee54dbe02b7658b48896aa198e40.png
ecmwf_t2m_nyc_16.thumb.png.30701b4601809f6cefb1758e0072fd54.png
Interesting. Still... It keeps right about 35 even as the LP goes right under LI, in some ways muting a true torch (granted it would be rain verbatim).

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2 hours ago, paweather said:

and it doesn't transfer it just heads east. This is what you want up in NYC. That is why you see the snow totals. 

Good it should head east, there's a strong high to the north.  I dont want an 80s type pattern where all the storms either went to DC or headed into upstate NY

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well the snow totals are high because the models are assuming anything frozen is a 10:1 ratio. Since 70% looks like sleet or freezing rain accumulations would be nowhere near what the snowmaps show

it does almost sound like the VD 2007 wintry storm or St Paddy's Day 2007, either or both were like that.

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3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

No matter how many times we tell them, if they have the snow goggles on the primary could track to Buffalo and they would say all snow.

thats why they should remember the two storms from 2007 that I referenced.  It can stay all frozen like those two 2007 storms did, but it would be snow to sleet to freezing rain.

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3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now.

There wont be a final solution until the storm actually makes it onshore, sampling in the Pacific is poor, so wait for another 24 hours or so before things get nailed down.

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4 minutes ago, Animal said:

Mt Holly nws morning afd going easily 6-10 inches of snow southern Poconos into nnj. (Nothing unusal)Mentions mainly snow likely but will monitor future computer model runs to determine the mix impacts.

Yes, I want to see the totals for Mt Pocono over to Lake Harmony and Albrightsville (around 2,000 ft where my summer home is)

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3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Ugh I do not know why I listen to the local news.... Channel 7 had a high of 47 in NYC which is just flat out wrong and maybe 1-2 inches for weekend storm. I know it’s preliminary but they seem to mislead the public more and more these days. 

They must be going with the Gfs.

Navgem has the low sliding off the southern mid atlantic coast .

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Slightly warmer 0z run of Euro was enough to push the heavy icing just NW of I-95. 850 mb freeze line gets pushed up a little further to the north this time with the very strong SW LLJ WAA aloft.

BDB40B42-4834-4BBA-B0BC-D878D466EFBD.thumb.png.d0814e6f4f16521b4020d247d85fdcbd.png

59133754-781D-4726-8280-00458B39A12C.thumb.png.71dfa60074cc87ef26ff58aed7a267c2.png

Euro looked colder on stormvista along with the eps.

I still think this goes further southeast but we are running out of time. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro looked colder on stormvista along with the eps.

I still think this goes further southeast but we are running out of time. 

 

The models never really waivered on the strength of the WAA with the LLJ. At least we get the front end thump ahead of the P-Type issues. Hopefully, we can get a measurement in the park before the mixing occurs.

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