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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now.

We're three or four days out.  The models are a joke that far out.  I'm not saying things are going to change; frankly, I don't really care.  But I don't think it serves a purpose to repeat It Gon Rain every five minutes.

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3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I don't as of now. 850s are +5 at the height of the precip even on the UK. Can change but we're really not that far out now.

Question for you sir. The Ukie paints 8-12 for NYC and the north shore of LI. Doesn’t that take into account the mix/ mid level warmth at 850? Or perhaps that 8-12 includes a boatload of sleet and is there a bloated nunber?

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It goes from almost up to Pittsburgh South and east to Southern Maryland. Nothing could force it to travel south 
Im saying it's a model depiction. I believe thr Ukie has the right idea but it's not there yet. I don't believe this is a transfer situation.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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12 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I still believe that this ends up as more snow for the region than we think. I believe the LP does not make it up to Pittsburgh as shown verbatim, for reasons I've laid it before. Now.. We wait and see.

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Is there a map showing the primary in Pittsburgh?  Maybe I missed it.  

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1 minute ago, Jason215 said:

Question for you sir. The Ukie paints 8-12 for NYC and the north shore of LI. Doesn’t that take into account the mix/ mid level warmth at 850? Or perhaps that 8-12 includes a boatload of sleet and is there a bloated nunber?

Just a guess but boatload of sleet and 3-6" of snow.   

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Just now, USCG RS said:

Im saying it's a model depiction. I believe thr Ukie has the right idea but it's not there yet. I don't believe this is a transfer situation.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Thank you. it is a low moving east based on the boundary. We all need that boundary to setup to the south. All you need to do when a model runs is look at Canada.

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4 minutes ago, Jason215 said:

Question for you sir. The Ukie paints 8-12 for NYC and the north shore of LI. Doesn’t that take into account the mix/ mid level warmth at 850? Or perhaps that 8-12 includes a boatload of sleet and is there a bloated nunber?

Its bloated. Vast majority of precip falls with above freezing 850s.

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7 minutes ago, paweather said:

and it doesn't transfer it just heads east. This is what you want up in NYC. That is why you see the snow totals. 

Well the snow totals are high because the models are assuming anything frozen is a 10:1 ratio. Since 70% looks like sleet or freezing rain accumulations would be nowhere near what the snowmaps show

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