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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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At 31-32° with those rates? I'll take the under.
Thats a 40% reduction. Perhaps you could take 50% and make it 1.25". Otherwise less than 50% accumulates. In other words it's not frz rn it's strictly rn+

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3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The problem is the amount of water that accumulates on the branches, power lines and what not will flash freeze with temps plunging into the single digits.

Agreed I think many are forgetting about the flash freeze...

For example no joke I accidentally spilled coffee on my car window yesterday morning and it’s immediately froze and the temps were only 20 degrees... what do you think will happen will temps dropping from 30-40 to single digits..

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Just now, allgame830 said:

Agreed I think many are forgetting about the flash freeze...

For example no joke I accidentally spilled coffee on my car window yesterday morning and it’s immediately froze and the temps were only 20 degrees... what do you think will happen will temps dropping from 30-40 to single digits..

A lot of car doors and windows frozen shut...

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

No question. This disco started in response to anthony saying "all ice for us" he's on the south shore of BK. Basically no icing in that solution IMO

Ah gotcha... my mistake. I would think from at the minimum the Bronx on north this becomes an ugly situation based on the NAM and especially what the ICON is depicting.

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7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

No question. This disco started in response to anthony saying "all ice for us" he's on the south shore of BK. Basically no icing in that solution IMO

Yep, I think you have to get NW of 287 to see damaging ice with this. SE of there it's either snow to rain or snow to freezing rain/rain. The airmass is not crazy cold. The GFS actually isn't terrible, its surface temps are ugly and likely wrong but I'd live with a 2-4/3-5 inch front end dump at this point, thats the best you're getting with this storm    

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Just now, allgame830 said:

Agreed I think many are forgetting about the flash freeze...

For example no joke I accidentally spilled coffee on my car window yesterday morning and it’s immediately froze and the temps were only 20 degrees... what do you think will happen will temps dropping from 30-40 to single digits..

That, I think is the BIGGEST threat.

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