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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Since it seems like a big snow event is becoming a remote possibility for the coast, I'm hoping for a north trend and plain rain. No interest in an ice storm.

It's pretty safe to say it won't be a big or even moderate snow event for the coast or anywhere really close. Need a ridiculous shift SE.

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6 minutes ago, Animal said:

Qpf is not really that impressive on the 0z nam. We will survive.

6 inches of snow or so over a sandwich of sleet & freezing rain.

 

Just west of Manhattan maybe. Just west of SI is all rain. If it rains in my experience it's going to rain up into Essex and Hudson as well. You get over to the Watchungs and it will probably sleet longer. Just really not a storm to get excited about; more one we want to survive.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

It's pretty safe to say it won't be a big or even moderate snow event for the coast or anywhere really close. Need a ridiculous shift SE.

Agree this is not a snowstorm for the coast or near the coast, maybe a front end thump in the best case scenario but the icing threat is starting to look very real especially for anyone away the immediate coast    

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3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Since it seems like a big snow event is becoming a remote possibility for the coast, I'm hoping for a north trend and plain rain. No interest in an ice storm.

It's becoming a remote possibility for most of NJ from what I see here. I got a feeling we are in for some kind of ice, and like you I am hoping it isn't long duration and it flips to all rain. 

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Just now, Snow88 said:

I wonder if this storm is going to be like the November storm where the area was supposed to change over but we got a few inches before it changed to sleet.

 

There will be cold air in place before the storm.

It changed to heavy rain but the front end dump was way undermodeled. These scenarios can go either way   

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

It changed to heavy rain but the front end dump was way undermodeled. These scenarios can go either way   

That system approached from almost due south as far as the WAA push.  That is usually a classic scenario where we do well in the overrunning snow.  This one is too WSW-ENE.  I wouldn’t expect it to be anywhere near as good.   Most of the overrunning will tend to initially go to our north

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The bad news at the moment is the NAM has a tendency towards south biases with SWFE type storms beyond 48-60.  If this is its south bias...then bye Felicia lol. 

Well I personally think a lot of people will be disappointed including those in SNE. 

It'll probably just be another heavy rainstorm for us. The one after will def be all rain too and then maybe the pattern will get better. 

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