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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Mostly commenting on the evolution and storm structure with the very strong SW WAA just above the surface. Funny how it had the stronger CAD over the weekend before backing off and now coming back to it. so that could be a sign that the exact zone of the heaviest freezing may still fluctuatate in the coming days.

Ok that's definitely true. 

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14 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

The GFS is the only model showing this at this point.... continue to toss!

Sometimes the GFS only completely catches on once the event has begun LOL

Gfs during the November 15th snow event initialized during the storm as rain meanwhile we were getting a snowstorm. I hate that model

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's still showing rain for tomorrow night

Para is also a horrible model

It really has consistently wanted to crank some type of weak surface feature over or north of us tomorrow night when other models either don’t have it or have it South.  As a result it’s generally torched the boundary layer more than any other model tomorrow night and Friday AM

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2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Gfs during the November 15th snow event initialized during the storm as rain meanwhile we were getting a snowstorm. I hate that model

GFS surface temps are the absolute last place I’d go for any storm like this. It won’t be an intense system but should hopefully drop an inch or two areawide. The immediate coast and Midtown may be exceptions. 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS surface temps are the absolute last place I’d go for any storm like this. It won’t be an intense system but should hopefully drop an inch or two areawide. The immediate coast and Midtown may be exceptions. 

Huh?? Your saying only an inch or two for NYC and it not being an intense system?

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I could see the larger system being a decent overrunning producer given the high ahead of it, but the high is pulling away and the flow is backing around to the SW too quickly, allowing a track too far west as of now and warm air to roar in aloft. Maybe the pattern out west could be a little more progressive and nudge it east, the trough could amp a little less, or the resistance in Canada could get a little tougher. But there's no help from the NAO, so nothing to force it to amplify less and surge warm air in with a track too far west. The SW flow aloft is also killer for a major snow event near where the low tracks and maybe even a good bit inland where there could be a zone of nasty icing and sleet. If there's a strong primary surging into OH or PA, I don't see much to force an early transfer to cut the warm air aloft off. You really want the trough to amplify less and track the low further southeast. There's still time for some adjustment there.

But the initial overrunning should be good for a few inches hopefully. 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Number 1 analog on Cips is 2/14/2007.

The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow.  So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in.  I don’t remember.  

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17 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Huh?? Your saying only an inch or two for NYC and it not being an intense system?

I hope you're not expecting a lot of snow for NYC this weekend.  And it's not an intense system but it's loaded with moisture. 

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7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I hope you're not expecting a lot of snow for NYC this weekend.  And it's not an intense system but it's loaded with moisture. 

I don’t think NYC will see a lot of snow but 3-5” is very possible. As for me I am 30 miles north of NYC so it should be a prolonged snow then sleet. Hopefully the ZR stays away!!

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow.  So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in.  I don’t remember.  

I think by 72 hours out mixing was starting to show up because of the 850 low being in ohio. Even then we got far less snow than forecast as the change to sleet was fairly quickly

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22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow.  So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in.  I don’t remember.  

Agreed, that's why that was such a disappointment. Not this time, I really am not expecting much snow near me, but hopefully won't have any icing. Much rather plain rain. Black ice could be a concern, and more than usual, if those temps plummet like they expect. 

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Number 1 analog on Cips is 2/14/2007.

Just reading Mt. Holly before, I don't think this one will even be as good as that, which was all frozen at least. we may change over to all rain quickly. really, that's the best scenario for us, we're not gonna get big snows it seems, and really no one wants ice. But it would be a good idea to prepare for it. If it happens, it will be too late to get a generator if you don't have one; people will be scoffing them up like it's the apocalypse.

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26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think by 72 hours out mixing was starting to show up because of the 850 low being in ohio. Even then we got far less snow than forecast as the change to sleet was fairly quickly

A good rule of thumb is wherever the 850 low tracks and SE of it won't stay snow for too long. In that area the mid levels are torching on southerly flow. The stronger the 850 low, the stronger the WAA. For days, models showed 20+ inches of snow for much of PA that storm despite a bad track for the mid level lows and a strong primary. I remember living in State College then and having 6" or so snow and then tons of sleet. There was light snow during the day, by dusk finally mod/heavy snow when the mix line started surging north, then the telltale massive aggregated flakes that mean warm air is partly melting the flakes aloft, then ping ping minutes later. Surface temps the whole time were in the teens. The backlash was good there because the coastal low finally took over, moisture was still around and cold mid level air came back. The end result was 11" or so of gunk that froze into cement. 

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