Rjay Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: No that's TonyLovesSnow and it's nothing but wishcasting. Is it? Lol. I havent even looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Mostly commenting on the evolution and storm structure with the very strong SW WAA just above the surface. Funny how it had the stronger CAD over the weekend before backing off and now coming back to it. so that could be a sign that the exact zone of the heaviest freezing may still fluctuatate in the coming days. Ok that's definitely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So what time does the 18z euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: The GFS is the only model showing this at this point.... continue to toss! Sometimes the GFS only completely catches on once the event has begun LOL Gfs during the November 15th snow event initialized during the storm as rain meanwhile we were getting a snowstorm. I hate that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS seriously needs to be scrapped at this point. Just start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, RDRY said: GFS seriously needs to be scrapped at this point. Just start over. That's what the FV3 was for, and while it's better with thermals there's no clear evidence it's better with anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs during the November 15th snow event initialized during the storm as rain meanwhile we were getting a snowstorm. I hate that model It's still showing rain for tomorrow night Para is also a horrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's still showing rain for tomorrow night Para is also a horrible model It really has consistently wanted to crank some type of weak surface feature over or north of us tomorrow night when other models either don’t have it or have it South. As a result it’s generally torched the boundary layer more than any other model tomorrow night and Friday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I agree with all the previous posts about the GooFuS. It's not very good but the FV3 which is supposed to replace it is worse IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I agree with all the previous posts about the GooFuS. It's not very good but the FV3 which is supposed to replace it is worse IMO. The only thing is the FV3 got November 15th snowstorm right. Besides that it’s just as bad imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusdev Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well, I finally found the old Accuweather Forum peeps! Good to see all the friendly banter hasn't changed. Always good to watch, listen and learn from everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 https://digital.weather.gov/ go to the link and then run the loop... Keep calm and think for yourself!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, Doorman said: https://digital.weather.gov/ go to the link and then run the loop... Keep calm and think for yourself!!! Nice civil war battle going on the M/D line between snow and fr. rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs during the November 15th snow event initialized during the storm as rain meanwhile we were getting a snowstorm. I hate that model GFS surface temps are the absolute last place I’d go for any storm like this. It won’t be an intense system but should hopefully drop an inch or two areawide. The immediate coast and Midtown may be exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS surface temps are the absolute last place I’d go for any storm like this. It won’t be an intense system but should hopefully drop an inch or two areawide. The immediate coast and Midtown may be exceptions. Huh?? Your saying only an inch or two for NYC and it not being an intense system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Huh?? Your saying only an inch or two for NYC and it not being an intense system? The Friday small system in front of the larger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The Friday small system in front of the larger one. Ahhh gotcha! Makes sense completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I could see the larger system being a decent overrunning producer given the high ahead of it, but the high is pulling away and the flow is backing around to the SW too quickly, allowing a track too far west as of now and warm air to roar in aloft. Maybe the pattern out west could be a little more progressive and nudge it east, the trough could amp a little less, or the resistance in Canada could get a little tougher. But there's no help from the NAO, so nothing to force it to amplify less and surge warm air in with a track too far west. The SW flow aloft is also killer for a major snow event near where the low tracks and maybe even a good bit inland where there could be a zone of nasty icing and sleet. If there's a strong primary surging into OH or PA, I don't see much to force an early transfer to cut the warm air aloft off. You really want the trough to amplify less and track the low further southeast. There's still time for some adjustment there. But the initial overrunning should be good for a few inches hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Number 1 analog on Cips is 2/14/2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Number 1 analog on Cips is 2/14/2007. The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow. So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in. I don’t remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Huh?? Your saying only an inch or two for NYC and it not being an intense system? I hope you're not expecting a lot of snow for NYC this weekend. And it's not an intense system but it's loaded with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: I hope you're not expecting a lot of snow for NYC this weekend. And it's not an intense system but it's loaded with moisture. I don’t think NYC will see a lot of snow but 3-5” is very possible. As for me I am 30 miles north of NYC so it should be a prolonged snow then sleet. Hopefully the ZR stays away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow. So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in. I don’t remember. I think by 72 hours out mixing was starting to show up because of the 850 low being in ohio. Even then we got far less snow than forecast as the change to sleet was fairly quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow. So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in. I don’t remember. Agreed, that's why that was such a disappointment. Not this time, I really am not expecting much snow near me, but hopefully won't have any icing. Much rather plain rain. Black ice could be a concern, and more than usual, if those temps plummet like they expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Number 1 analog on Cips is 2/14/2007. Just reading Mt. Holly before, I don't think this one will even be as good as that, which was all frozen at least. we may change over to all rain quickly. really, that's the best scenario for us, we're not gonna get big snows it seems, and really no one wants ice. But it would be a good idea to prepare for it. If it happens, it will be too late to get a generator if you don't have one; people will be scoffing them up like it's the apocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think by 72 hours out mixing was starting to show up because of the 850 low being in ohio. Even then we got far less snow than forecast as the change to sleet was fairly quickly A good rule of thumb is wherever the 850 low tracks and SE of it won't stay snow for too long. In that area the mid levels are torching on southerly flow. The stronger the 850 low, the stronger the WAA. For days, models showed 20+ inches of snow for much of PA that storm despite a bad track for the mid level lows and a strong primary. I remember living in State College then and having 6" or so snow and then tons of sleet. There was light snow during the day, by dusk finally mod/heavy snow when the mix line started surging north, then the telltale massive aggregated flakes that mean warm air is partly melting the flakes aloft, then ping ping minutes later. Surface temps the whole time were in the teens. The backlash was good there because the coastal low finally took over, moisture was still around and cold mid level air came back. The end result was 11" or so of gunk that froze into cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM is amped. I'm just about done. Yeah mixes much earlier this run. Front end dump of snow would be a few inches at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00z NAM brings a sleeter for NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: 00z NAM brings a sleeter for NNJ For once I am glad to be just barely on the rain side. That shows a significant strip of high population area under freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Stays all frozen for everyone just west of the city even with the low over nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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