NYC10023 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 dumb question what is a CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:33 PM, ny10019 said: dumb question what is a CAD Expand Cold air damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:27 PM, SnowGoose69 said: NYC’s ceiling on this event is probably 7-8 inches. If I had to guess now I would say they’ll get 3-5 Expand We usually don't even do that much in these kinds of storms, we usually top out about 1-2 before plain rain. What concerns me here is the potential for ice on top of those few inches, which would really be dangerous. But I freely admit that I'm no expert, and I have a hard time right now trying to prepare. What time do we expect this whole show to start? I've got a kid coming home by bus from DC Sat night. I don't trust big commercial buses on ice. Worried dad here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:33 PM, ny10019 said: dumb question what is a CAD Expand Cold air damming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:16 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM evolution is odd. It’s almost as if it has a separate WAA event up this way and in New England and tries to just break off the surface low down over the MA Expand The one weakness of the NAM seems to be spinning up bogus mesolows. Especially when there is a baggy or elongated surface low pressure field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:33 PM, ny10019 said: dumb question what is a CAD Expand http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/050/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:33 PM, ny10019 said: dumb question what is a CAD Expand Don't be embarrassed there are all kinds of abbreviations that I gave up on here. CAD, NAO, EPO and ENSO are the ones ya gotta really know; you'll pick up the rest eventually. And you don't really need to know all of them to understand the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:36 PM, weatherpruf said: Don't be embarrassed there are all kinds of abbreviations that I gave up on here. CAD, NAO, EPO and ENSO are the ones ya gotta really know; you'll pick up the rest eventually. And you don't really need to know all of them to understand the forecasts. Expand Thanks! NAP EPO ENSO I've got; CAD is a new one. Appreciate everyones input, especially during this frenetic model discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:41 PM, ny10019 said: Thanks! NAP EPO ENSO I've got; CAD is a new one. Appreciate everyones input, especially during this frenetic model discussions Expand Those types of questions are ones that should ALWAYS be asked even in model threads. Between plenty of people being too embarrassed to ask, the imby questions, and the posters who only show up during bad model runs, having actual meteorological discussion is a nice break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Maybe we should have a stickied post with every generally accepted weather/geographical acronym in use here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:33 PM, Ericjcrash said: And cold. If that extreme solution were to verify oh boy. Expand Monday morning is going to be in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:45 PM, BxEngine said: Those types of questions are ones that should ALWAYS be asked even in model threads. Between plenty of people being too embarrassed to ask, the imby questions, and the posters who only show up during bad model runs, having actual meteorological discussion is a nice break. Expand Very much agree. If the ice storm threat continues it would be nice to see some input on thermal profiles/droplet size in relation to surface freezing/surface temperatures since we so rarely see serious freezing rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:47 PM, Gravity Wave said: Maybe we should have a stickied post with every generally accepted weather/geographical acronym in use here? Expand That's a very good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18Z GFS looks more amped so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Stronger temp surge but also quicker transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS still tracks the secondary overhead but it was a clear step towards the Euro/UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:57 PM, NJwx85 said: Stronger temp surge but also quicker transfer. Expand The GFS is the only model showing this at this point.... continue to toss! Sometimes the GFS only completely catches on once the event has begun LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:27 PM, SnowGoose69 said: NYC’s ceiling on this event is probably 7-8 inches. If I had to guess now I would say they’ll get 3-5 Expand I understand that. He is entertaining an all snow /mostly snow event which as modeled consists of 1.5"+ liquid QPF just North of 0 @ 850. That would be double digit totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 IMO even the GFS is showing an ice storm once you take into account that it is global and so underestimating CAD and ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS is flailing around in the dark while gradually edging towards the other models, as usual. It'll come around once it gets into its deadly range of 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 10:01 PM, West Mtn NY said: I understand that. He is entertaining an all snow /mostly snow event which as modeled consists of 1.5"+ liquid QPF just North of 0 @ 850. That would be double digit totals Expand No that's TonyLovesSnow and it's nothing but wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 10:03 PM, NJwx85 said: No that's TonyLovesSnow and it's nothing but wishcasting. Expand With belligerence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 6:54 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: If this thing trends another 30 miles south it’s all snow for New York City simple as that Expand Disagree. It's an even worse ice storm. You need a Ukie solution from 12z yesterday. On 1/16/2019 at 8:33 PM, bluewave said: It says something when the Euro and EPS have been showing the same storm evolution every run going back to last weekend. It usually does pretty well when it locks in early. The Euro/EPS have been indicating P-type issues for days. Expand I somewhat disagree with this. The Euro def has the storm signal last weekend but for the last few days it was showing too much early phasing with the pv lobe. The end result was much warmer runs at the surface for our sunforum in general. It's backed off that idea a lot over the last 2 runs. On 1/16/2019 at 9:10 PM, snowman19 said: Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch Expand As modeled there will be a heavy thump of snow there before any changeover. I think the changeover is inevitable unless this ends up like the Ukie showed yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 10:03 PM, Gravity Wave said: GFS is flailing around in the dark while gradually edging towards the other models, as usual. It'll come around once it gets into its deadly range of 6 hours post event Fixed ^^Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think a decent thump of snow is still on the table for NYC before any changeover. The more intense it comes in the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:10 PM, snowman19 said: Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch Expand Exactly what mine says for me in Vernon at over 1200' elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 10:04 PM, Rjay said: Disagree. It's an even worse ice storm. You need a Ukie solution from 12z yesterday. I somewhat disagree with this. The Euro def has the storm signal last weekend but for the last few days it was showing too much early phasing with the pv lobe. The end result was much warmer runs at the surface for our sunforum in general. It's backed off that idea a lot over the last 2 runs. As modeled there will be a heavy thump of snow there before any changeover. I think the changeover is inevitable unless this ends up like the Ukie showed yesterday afternoon. Expand Mostly commenting on the evolution and storm structure with the very strong SW WAA just above the surface. Funny how it had the stronger CAD over the weekend before backing off and now coming back to it. So that could be a sign that the exact zone of the heaviest freezing may still fluctuatate in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 On 1/16/2019 at 9:48 PM, friedmators said: Very much agree. If the ice storm threat continues it would be nice to see some input on thermal profiles/droplet size in relation to surface freezing/surface temperatures since we so rarely see serious freezing rain events. Expand I really hope some of our more knowledgeable posters step up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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