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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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Just listened to the 4pm NWS forecast for my area in Sussex, Co. NJ. They say snow Sat afternoon  and Saturday night,  chance of light freezing rain and sleet after midnight.  LITTLE or NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.  Sunday, light freezing rain and sleet. No mention of a change over. What are they seeing that we're not?

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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Textbook CAD.

You can see why the icing threat is so high.

Upton’s new point and click for Rockland County has “little to no snow accumulations” Saturday night and is calling for sleet and freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday. I guess they are thinking that there’s going to be a very strong midlevel warm punch

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2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Just listened to the 4pm NWS forecast for my area in Sussex, Co. NJ. They say snow Sat afternoon  and Saturday night,  chance of light freezing rain and sleet after midnight.  LITTLE or NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.  Sunday, light freezing rain and sleet. No mention of a change over. What are they seeing that we're not?

They usually lag a day or so behind the latest model trends. Also they weigh the GFS heavily. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

The problem isn't surface temps. 

This is what's driving all the precip and it's mostly at the 850mb level.

Z0L8j4C.gif

The 850’s will cool too with the pv pressing like that. No doubt we’ll have a battleground between snow and sleet for a bit around jfk area but in my opinion this is mostly a snow event as it stands to me. Still plenty of time to change

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

The 850’s will cool too with the pv pressing like that. No doubt we’ll have a battleground between snow and sleet for a bit around jfk area but in my opinion this is mostly a snow event as it stands to me. Still plenty of time to change

You're really just wishcasting. 

The city is going to be battling between plain rain and freezing rain after the initial snow on Saturday night.

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4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Heading upstate to Liberty NY in Sullivan County on Friday @ 1,600 feet. Can I expect mainly snow there, over a foot? Is this storm elevation based too?

Elevation could actually hurt you since you would be closer the warmer air aloft, however that far N&W should be less of an issue. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM evolution is odd.  It’s almost as if it has a separate WAA event up this way and in New England and tries to just break off the surface low down over the MA

I was thinking that but didn't want to over analyze an 84 hr NAM run. It almost looks like we would dry slot and the coastal would pass off the NC coast and we wouldn't get much.

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time.

Is it 30?, 50?, next time 75? You act like NYC is Albany. There is a reason you only average 27" inches a year. Most foot plus storms are supposed to be to your North. You are like a homeless person by the Port Authority except you are begging for snow. 

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2 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Is it 30?, 50?, next time 75? You act like NYC is Albany. There is a reason you only average 27" inches a year. Most foot plus storms are supposed to be to your North. You are like a homeless person by the Port Authority except you are begging for snow. 

NYC’s ceiling on this event is probably 7-8 inches.  If I had to guess now I would say they’ll get 3-5 

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