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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

The southern December storm as well.

Even the Friday system the surface low has come north again the last two main model cycles now so that coastal areas look more rainy again.  Prior to that it had been flattening for 48-72 hours and for awhile looked like all snow even for Long Island 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL No arrogance here.

If you had some blocking I could see how you could make a case for the primary dying faster, but the warm push aloft is unavoidable IMO.

At the same time though everyone will probably snow earlier than currently expected and there will probably be banding features.  So often times in a juiced up enough storm the mid level WAA gets somewhat cancelled out by those two factors and you get decent snow in advance anyway 

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26 minutes ago, TriPol said:

But with high winds and much of this precip falling quickly, how much ice actually accumulates on exposed power lines and roads? Just because 1.8" of precip falls, doesn't mean it actually accumulates.

Of course. But even 1.00” of ice accretion would be very dangerous.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

At the same time though everyone will probably snow earlier than currently expected and there will probably be banding features.  So often times in a juiced up enough storm the mid level WAA gets somewhat cancelled out by those two factors and you get decent snow in advance anyway 

Totally agree, that's why I am so confident in a solid front end dump before any mixing and why I would go 3-6" even in NYC.

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even the Friday system the surface low has come north again the last two main model cycles now so that coastal areas look more rainy again.  Prior to that it had been flattening for 48-72 hours and for awhile looked like all snow even for Long Island 

Very good points. We have seen every storm come north in the last 2 days before so far this winter. If I’m betting, I think the weekend definitely comes more NW in the next couple days. The southern branch disturbance probably strengthens much more than the models show right now given the huge latent heat/convective release from all the Gulf of Mexico moisture and warmth streaming north

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12Z EURO seems to be all Snow, but only 9" here.    This is despite all precip. {2"}coming with temps. from 32-10, then going near 0 after storm departs.     Why is this not 20" to 30"?   I think you have to have a Skew-T to figure this out by examining the mid-levels.    Anyone know if this is available on the internet anywhere?

KNYC_2019011612_dx_240.png

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7 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

12Z EURO seems to be all Snow, but only 9" here.    This is despite all precip. {2"}coming with temps. from 32-10, then going near 0 after storm departs.     Why is this not 20" to 30"?   I think you have to have a Skew-T to figure this out by examining the mid-levels.    Anyone know if this is available on the internet anywhere?

KNYC_2019011612_dx_240.png

Have you seen the 850 temps? 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The 850 mb 0C line makes it up to POU this Euro run.

 

89D79620-E9F5-45DD-AC37-BA7406B387B4.thumb.png.25c48b4a8e9fec1dee1a3e8531d0d083.png

 

50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time.

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28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very good points. We have seen every storm come north in the last 2 days before so far this winter. If I’m betting, I think the weekend definitely comes more NW in the next couple days. The southern branch disturbance probably strengthens much more than the models show right now given the huge latent heat/convective release from all the Gulf of Mexico moisture and warmth streaming north

Oh come on the trend has been south this year. Last year was north. I’d bet this trends to ukmet  yesterdays run or close to it. Euro caved so far

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

When the temperature is 20 degrees moving water can freeze.

Need a steady inflow of low level cold air to acrete much ice with heavy zr falling.  Any where near freezing and you quickly hit an equilibrium with melting and freezing due to latent heat release from the freezing process..  

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)017<1016%3AMROFAM>2.0.CO%3B2

 

 

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25 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time.

The Euro and EPS have been pretty consistent showing an elongated area of low pressure pressing up against the ridge to the east. So this allows the LLJ advance to the north of the low pressure track warming the levels above the surface.

B8ADC9C5-6567-477F-BAB0-D470DFE3DB54.thumb.png.3118f34c99da29f66d2266412c5330d8.png

 

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Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

Need a steady inflow of low level cold air to acrete much ice with heavy zr falling.  Any where near freezing and you quickly hit an equilibrium with melting and freezing due to latent heat release from the freezing process..  

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)017<1016%3AMROFAM>2.0.CO%3B2

 

 

Not sure I understand your point here. Temps never get above the mid 20's over most of the interior which is plenty cold enough to sustain ice accumulation. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Not sure I understand your point here. Temps never get above the mid 20's over most of the interior which is plenty cold enough to sustain ice accumulation. 

Point was about the difficulty in the freezing of heavy rainfall.  Even in mid 20s there will be a lot of run off if it is heavy enough.

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1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Point was about the difficulty in the freezing of heavy rainfall.  Even in mid 20s there will be a lot of run off if it is heavy enough.

The Euro is showing rates of around 0.25" per hour for about 6-12 hours which is why it's showing such big ice accumulations. Even if you cut them by 50% that's a big deal.

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Just now, bluewave said:

The Euro and EPS have been pretty consistent showing an elongated low pressure pressing up against the ridge to the east. So this allows the LLJ advance to the north of the low pressure track warming the levels above the surface.

B8ADC9C5-6567-477F-BAB0-D470DFE3DB54.thumb.png.3118f34c99da29f66d2266412c5330d8.png

 

Fair enough you’re entitled to your opinion I am entitled to mine. I still think the euro and eps are not done trending southeast. If that low goes another 50 miles southeast this is an all out snowstorm for our region. I look at models and I base my forecast on my knowledge. Models are guidance and not an exact science. I look at the pattern and I see the confluence getting stronger each run, making the primary dying more south, which is making a new low form and essentially becoming a big snowstorm for us. I don’t think this is done trending. I just think this ticks south slowly for the next 36 hours. You’re a very knowledgeable poster but I base my forecasts on my experience. I think this will be mostly a snow event with brief shots of sleet.

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27 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

The GFS and the FV3-GFS both turn us over to rain pretty quickly.. The soundings don't look promising either.

Thermals on those models are the worst. Gfs and it’s partner are probably worse off than cmc. I would pay attention to nam thermals once we get closer

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