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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He’s right. If it happens the way the Euro just showed it is definitely not staying snow. There will be massive midlevel warming in such a setup

Yes I know that and he's right about what the Euro is showing. What I'm contesting is him saying that the all snow event near the coast "isn't happening, period". It's too early to make definitive statements.

In any event, we should all pray that this trends colder or warmer because, verbatim, these recent model runs are depicting a disastrous ice storm. I prefer 50 and rain over what the Euro is showing.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this would be a huge win for the Euro if it verifies. Remember how it showed this solution last weekend. Probably need to get to writhin 24-48 hrs to know where the most dangerous icing sets up.

This could be quite the freezing rain and sleet event. Every model has the midlevels torching. Usually the midlevel warm punch always verifies warmer as you close in on the storm. The low level jet is going to be screaming in from the south

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Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Yes I know that and he's right about that. What I'm contesting is him saying that the all snow event near the coast "isn't happening, period". It's too early to make definitive statements.

In any event, we should all pray that this trends colder or warmer because, verbatim, these recent model runs are depicting a disastrous ice storm. I prefer 50 and rain over what the Euro is showing.

It's not happening. The reason is because the primary tracks up the Ohio Valley. The reason we are seeing so much heavy precip is a testament to the amount of warm air advection that is occurring. All that warm air aloft is overriding the cold, arctic air at the surface. 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is back to the big ice storm for the NYC Metro that it was showing last weekend. 

FC60143F-63DA-4F54-A82E-AB3012BC165F.thumb.png.be09637b2f05ddd891deab289ca8ac19.png

 

 

 

But with high winds and much of this precip falling quickly, how much ice actually accumulates on exposed power lines and roads? Just because 1.8" of precip falls, doesn't mean it actually accumulates.

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If you're going to get more snow at the coast you need the primary to die off even faster, while it's down in the Kentucky area. I really don't see that happening since we don't have any blocking. The only reason we're even contemplating this as a snowstorm is because the primary dies off now instead of tracking into New England. All a result of the Southern shortwave getting far enough out ahead of the trough so that the phase happens after the storm is much further North.

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3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

But with high winds and much of this precip falling quickly, how much ice actually accumulates on exposed power lines and roads? Just because 1.8" of precip falls, doesn't mean it actually accumulates.

When the temperature is 20 degrees moving water can freeze.

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I have no idea but we've seen massive changes past 72 hours before. Could still end up a big rainstorm for all we know

This could easily go back north over the next 60 hours. As a matter of fact the storm that hit DCA just pretty much did that.  Trended south from 120-84 then went 100 miles north after 

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Would an even later phase with the PV result in a further south and east LP center resulting a shift in the wind direction to more snow/sleet and less rain?
The primary.. I highly doubt goes as far north as currently depicted. I know I keep beating this drum.. But this storm is baroclynicly driven. It's not going to just shoot north and redevelop imo. Since the temperature gradient will be pushing SE, more than likely this storm just shoots across the Cumberland Gap. This allows for colder air to truly filter in. This is why I am calling for colder / snowier conditions for the tri state.
This is an overrunning event imp, not a phase or transfer.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This could easily go back north over the next 60 hours. As a matter of fact the storm that hit DCA just pretty much did that.  Trended south from 120-84 then went 100 miles north after 

...or continue its march south. I would think that every storm system is different.

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