LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Rjay said: There is strong ensemble support for a winter storm in this time frame. All storm related posts belong in here. This will be the first of many threats in the coming weeks. All pattern disco and threats beyond this period can go in the January Disco/obs thread. And yes, I just started a thread for a storm ~7 days away. As we get closer to the 20th, banter will need to be limited. I hope everyone enjoys tracking this storm. Good luck to all. I assume this is a dual thread for the storm/eclipse threat ;-) I hope we get both, since the storm is actually going to start on Friday, perhaps it will clear out quickly enough to view the eclipse late Sunday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 hours ago, Gravity Wave said: So nice to have a threat to track. The last 8 weeks have been painfully boring. I was getting a little jealous of DC's long duration snowstorm today, I hope we get something of similar or longer duration with twice as much snow ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said: Thanks, Eric. On phone, at stop lights, while on my way home. Hadn't seen the 18z products, yet. We'll see if it all comes together to produce. Too early, still, to know. IF it does, and hoping it does so, I'm leaning towards chasing in this particular sub-forum region. Reason I might be posting in here, time to time. Last winter storm chase was in NYC and on LI, back in late March 2018. Love to do it, again! You were here for our big 30" snowstorm in Jan 2016 weren't you? I think I remember you chasing that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Outta here by Sunday evening. Still 8-12" YES great news for the eclipse, we need the skies to at least be partly cloudy by 11 pm Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: SECS = 6-12 MECS =12-24 HECS = 24-36 BECS =36+ I'm just posting this because you made quite a jump from SECS to BECS, I wasn't sure if you knew of the two in between and purposely skipped them, but I like your thinking. I have my own scale lol, I do it in increments of 4 inches since that also corresponds well with the metric system since 4 inches = 100mm SEC 4-8 MECS 8-16 HECS 16-32 BECS 32 + Feb 1978 and Feb 1983 were both 18" snowstorms at NYC and both are considered historic. Jan 2016 was borderline BECS since it was 31" at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well there's a couple of issues I have with that. The first is Central Park has had 7 storms of 20.0 inches or more and 4 in the last 12 years so I don't know if I'd call that Historic. Throw in Feb 17, 2003 with 19.8 and Jan 26-27, 2011 with 19.0 and you make it 9 storms. The way they use to measure in Central Park either of those could have been over 20. The other is Central Park is one isolated location in a forecast area that goes out in about a 60 mile radius of Central Park. I don't have the exact figures, but I would guess there have been at least 20 storms in the last 20 years within a 60 mile radius of Central Park where at least some locations within that area have had 20 or more inches, so again good storms but hardly IMO historic. I believe Bluewave or Don had a thread on that fairly recently. If it was someone else my apologies, it's a great thread. Well, we can consider it historic if at least one of the four metro official locations (NYC,LGA,JFK,EWR) meet the requirements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro is snow to heavy rain, yet another solution ...thats my concern for us islanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Well the Euro was a disaster. 06z GFS still gets the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Well the Euro was a disaster. 06z GFS still gets the job done. Gefs is further southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 What did the EPS show? And what locals is the EURO a snow to heavy rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What did the EPS show? And what locals is the EURO a snow to heavy rain?? Snow to rain for the coast and all snow for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Snow to rain for the coast and all snow for the interior. ugh. Hope that one's wrong. Too early to say I know. Keep us posted my friend. Will be a lot of runs. Worried about my daughter's bus trip to DC this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What did the EPS show? And what locals is the EURO a snow to heavy rain?? It was definitely snowier for the coast than the Op was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Fv3 is another torch nightmare. Ugly 12 hour swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not sure I would trust the GFS thermals at this point! Still many runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Not sure I would trust the GFS thermals at this point! Still many runs to go. Never mind the thermals. SLP goes over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Well, it wouldn't be a winter in our area if the models didn't show a winter storm a few days out that had 1,000 different crazy solutions! At least it's something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Well it did not take long all for the models to take some air out of our balloon huh ? Looks like this week could be a rollercoaster of model runs. I asked this question earlier can someone tell me how in any way that the first wave on Friday effects Saturday nite / Sundays event ? Would a stronger Friday wave benefit the weekend or not ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 50 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Never mind the thermals. SLP goes over LI Jan 1978 blizzard was supposed to be snow changing to rain, we ended up with a 12-18 inch blizzard, followed by another 12-18 inch blizzard 3 weeks later that was correctly predicted from a week out lol. In between the two there was a triple phasing cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is further southeast GEFS looks excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, tim said: ...thats my concern for us islanders. Give it time. Models will bounce around for the next few days in what seems a tempermental battle between the TPV and WAR. At this point though, I don’t think the tele’s favor a snowy solution for us coasties. MJO’s antics continue to be the flies in the ointment, meaning that the WAR probably buts in too much. Maybe a bit of payback for all of those glorious coastal scrapers we have seen over the past few years that have shut out the interior. Patience though. I think our fortune might change in a few weeks when the MJO either moves into the COD or more favorable phases. The blockiness modeled up top will help. There’ll definitely be plenty of cold nearby too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Never mind the thermals. SLP goes over LIYou need h85 to remain SE of LI for this to be a big snow event for LI Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Give it time. Models will bounce around for the next few days in what seems a tempermental battle between the TPV and WAR. At this point though, I don’t think the tele’s favor a snowy solution for us coasties. MJO’s antics continue to be the flies in the ointment, meaning that the WAR probably buts in too much. Maybe a bit of payback for all of those glorious coastal scrapers we have seen over the past few years that have shut out the interior. Patience though. I think our fortune might change in a few weeks when the MJO either moves into the COD or more favorable phases. The blockiness modeled up top will help. There’ll definitely be plenty of cold nearby too. A few weeks is March lolSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: You need h85 to remain SE of LI for this to be a big snow event for LI Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk I just want to add a quick illustration of what you're talking about here. Here's the 6Z GFS just as an example. For those that are wondering, pay attention to the wind direction on the above charts. You can see the center of the h85 circulation and how the temperatures respond accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Absolutely no way this is a cutter... worst case is the immediate coast is snow to rain. Could be an inland runner too-that would give us a snow to rain or snow to ice/rain scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: really ? then start posting some evidence of this meteorology to prove your point about a cutter for next weekend that keep the temps above 50 for 2 days then we can look at it and comment...……... MJO heading to unfavorable phases of 4-5 and maybe 6. Raging Pac jet- PAC energy continues to knock down the western trough...modeling this year has shown a great setup only to correct warmer/wet once we get under 7 days. (seasonal/trend/persistence) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I hope this will be the "big one". Rain/snow line is too close to comfort for me as of now, but its still almost a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Not a Met or anything but still far enough out where ensembles > operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: MJO heading to unfavorable phases of 4-5 and maybe 6. Raging Pac jet- PAC energy continues to knock down the western trough...modeling this year has shown a great setup only to correct warmer/wet once we get under 7 days. (seasonal/trend/persistence) fair points - I was making that argument a few days ago about the MJO 4 - 5 but it seems because it going to be at a low amp and other teleconnections such as the -AO and + PNA seems to be more significant in the current pattern setting up as Don as been mentioning that our biggest January snowstorms come during a - AO and a +PNA setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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