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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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12Z CMC moved the "frozen" line about 30 miles SE vs. 6Z, so it's now no longer an inland outlier with the track.  Another thing to keep in mind (sorry if this is a repeat as I haven't read the last few pages) is that the TT maps show sleet as 10:1 ratio snow, while the Pivotal maps don't show sleet at all, so they'll show a lot less "snow" in the maps.  Both are misleading.  Anyway, with respect to the CMC, here's how it changed looking at both sources (only showing the 6Z CMC from Pivotal to illustrate the reported "snow" differences).

gem_asnow_neus_19.png

 

gem_asnow_neus_21.png

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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Just now, RU848789 said:

12Z CMC moved the "frozen" line about 30 miles SE vs. 6Z, so it's now no longer an inland outlier with the track.  Another thing to keep in mind (sorry if this is a repeat as I haven't read the last few pages) is that the TT maps show sleet as 10:1 ratio snow, while the Pivotal maps don't show sleet at all, so they'll show a lot less "snow" in the maps.  Both are misleading.  Anyway, with respect to the CMC, here's how it changed looking at both sources (only showing the 6Z CMC from Pivotal to illustrate the reported "snow" differences).

gem_asnow_neus_19.png

 

gem_asnow_neus_21.png

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

Don't think the snowfall gradient is that sharp. Also think the icing threat which has been advertised for days is coming to roost. 

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Don't think the snowfall gradient is that sharp. Also think the icing threat which has been advertised for days is coming to roost. 

Agreed - main point of the post, though, was to show that both model output sources are misleading in their own ways, since they don't really show sleet or ZR separately and handle sleet either as part of snow (TT) or not as part of snow (PW).  

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The redevelopment would be interesting, that would definitely hold the low level cold in place vs. more of a FROP.

Exactly. I think most of the solutions imply cold air hanging tough despite whatever their 2m temp/wind progs show. The sagging isobars extending out of the high up north will allow for ageostrophic northerly flow rather than the E or SE winds the models spit out.

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