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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Another rainstorm..... next

You basically live in the middle of the bay, not exactly an ideal location for border line air masses. For those of us that live North and West of the city this still has the potential to be a major snowstorm with significant icing as well.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Canadian now redevelops. Primary gets to Southern Ohio before a secondary pops over VA and rides the coast.

Ignore the thermal profiles. They are garbage.

BIvCFEZ.gif

so if they are garbage - what actually happens in your opinion ? Also can you slow that down ?

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

so if they are garbage - what actually ppens in your opinion ?

So a lot of what the GGEM is showing as plain rain over interior NJ and the Hudson Valley is actually freezing rain. It's a solid front end dump of 3-6, 4-8" before the warming takes over aloft. But the surface cold hangs strong. It's a thump to freezing rain, possibly changing back to snow as the system pulls away late Sunday.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

So a lot of what the GGEM is showing as plain rain over interior NJ and the Hudson Valley is actually freezing rain. It's a solid front end dump of 3-6, 4-8" before the warming takes over aloft. But the surface cold hangs strong. It's a thump to freezing rain, possibly changing back to snow as the system pulls away late Sunday.

I would say that analyses stays on the table - as a possible outcome

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One key thing to keep in mind if it looks like a heavy freezing rain scenario.  The one partial saving grace in this scenario would be if we get a front end thump of several inches of snow everywhere before a change to ZR, such that freezing rain falling into a snowpack would simply be absorbed and wouldn’t coat all sub-32F surfaces with ice.  In this scenario, it may sound odd, but it would probably be better to now shovel/plow, if possible (which is likely a non-starter for roads, lol, but that'll absolutely be what I do with my sidewalk and driveway), so that any ZR falls into the snowpack.  Having the rain falling into the snowpack will lead to a slushy mess that probably freezes slowly (remember freezing adds a little heat to the surroundings) and not as a pure ice glaze.  So root for snow before freezing rain.   Trees and powerlines could still be vulnerable, especially as the snow may not stick well to them.   

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