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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Unfortunately that 6-9 inches over the metro it predicts will probably translate to ice rather than snow per Bluewave's posts because the middle layers are torched.

Yes possibly in the metro itself but not so much for areas north and west of the city. Hopefully an earlier start time will verify.

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1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Yes possibly in the metro itself but not so much for areas north and west of the city. Hopefully an earlier start time will verify.

anything and everything in no particular order is still on the table for NYC and the immediate suburbs - confidence for areas farther north and west for mostly frozen is increasing.

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51 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Very disheartening. Couple inches washed away.

I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney?

Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland.

Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours.

Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen.

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Just now, jfklganyc said:

I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney?

Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland.

Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours.

Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen.

Things changed for the better at 0z and we are also talking about less interaction between the polar vortex and the storm. Can it trend colder ? Sure

Can it trend warmer ? Sure

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The ridge is too strong ahead of the storm to get a mostly snow event down to the coast with such strong WAA above 900 mb. So a SE trend would push the ice further to the SE. Hopefully, the Euro doesn’t go back to the more southerly heavy ice accumulation maps it was running with last weekend.

6E16965C-F410-47C5-BB8E-C812AC593527.thumb.png.fed6cc0c27d242548a7785ef64f2b80b.png

 

The models might be underdoing the cold air.

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5 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

Dumb question, but how much snow, if any, are we looking on the back end of this? That's one thing I don't like about 6 hour gaps between frames

Whatever falls on the back end may just turn into a flash freeze with the mixed p-types transitioning back to snow.

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49 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I was reading that even if it falls as freezing rain, the rain is coming down too hard for the ground to freeze up too quickly at 30 degrees, whereas more damage would occur if the rain was drizzle. 

Some areas could experience freezing rain with temps in the low to mid 20's, which would have no problem accumulating. 

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53 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I was reading that even if it falls as freezing rain, the rain is coming down too hard for the ground to freeze up too quickly at 30 degrees, whereas more damage would occur if the rain was drizzle. 

The ground is already frozen 2" down up here. Any liquid precip will freeze instantly. 

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3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Almost looks like it wants to pop a coastal off NC coast at hr 84 but hard to tell..

 

namconus_mslp_wind_neus_53.png

The counter clockwise flow off Hatteras in intriguing and would be a game changer. However, its the 84 hour NAM and I dont see enough support right now to see the HP squash the initial low enough to force the coastal redevelopment. 

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I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney?
Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland.
Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours.
Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen.
But the fundamentals would support colder currently. Are the midlevels worrisome? As depicted, yes. However - and I said this yesterday- this comes down to a baroclynic gradient. The LP slamming into such a strong HP and phasing with the PV does not make all that much synoptic sense. Therefore, without the phase , this storm will ride the baroclynic gradient. This is not an LP phasing and bombing out, nothing in the n/s would show that. Therefore this is a couple of perturbations running along a stationary front essentially. In turn it allows for a considerable overrunning event. With this in mind, the perturbation (LP) is going to take the path of least resistance. This would translate to the strongest baroclinic gradient - likely SE. This HP is rather strong and it is going to shift the gradient SE as the weekend progresses, just look at how the models have trended much flatter and further S with the initial wave.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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